Blue Jays potentially signing Roki Sasaki would transform American League East betting picture
-by Sam Cox, January 16, 2025
The Toronto Blue Jays have swung and missed on a collection of big-name free agents over the last couple of winters. Prolonged pursuits of Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Corbin Burnes ended in disappointment.
Being a finalist for pitching phenom Roki Sasaki gives the Jays a chance to end this unwanted streak of free agency near-misses. While the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres have long been the favorites to secure Sasaki, the Blue Jays have a meaningful chance as the only other team still in the mix after the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, and other potential landing spots announced they have been turned down by Sasaki.
Toronto is coming off its lowest full-season win total since 2019. Given a line of 87.5 before the 2024 campaign, the Jays were one of the most disappointing teams in the big leagues. After finishing last in the American League East, Toronto has endured an underwhelming offseason, with no Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension and no high-profile acquisitions outside of a trade for Andrés Giménez.
Jays Finalists Again
Blue Jays fans aren’t going to get carried away with being finalists. They’ve heard all of this before, including Ohtani reportedly being on a flight to Toronto last offseason.
Via Mark Feinsand, an anonymous National League executive indicated the Dodgers and Padres are still the clear favorites for Sasaki, with the two NL West powerhouses trying to trade for more international bonus pool money.
Per an article on MLB.com, the executive said, “Just about everyone has assumed he would sign with the Dodgers or Padres from the minute he was posted. You can’t count out the Blue Jays, because they always seem to be in the mix, but it would be a surprise if he didn’t wind up with one of those SoCal teams.”
There are murmurs Sasaki would prefer to be away from the pressure of a major market, however, which could put him off the Dodgers. Going to the Padres would intensify the coverage and interest in the burgeoning NL West rivalry between the two teams.
Toronto, perhaps, gives Sasaki a chance to begin his major-league career without the scrutiny that comes with southern California. The Jays might have been a non-factor in 2024, but this core has been a consistent contender with postseason appearances in 2020, 2022, and 2023.
Sasaki’s Credentials
Sasaki has been compared to a young Noah Syndergaard, such is his athletic frame, high-velocity arsenal, and age. Aged 23 for the whole of the 2025 season, the Jays could be getting their ace for the next decade-plus. Scouts have been happy to describe Sasaki as a ‘number one’ in the majors, with fans seeing what he was capable of in the World Baseball Classic back in 2021.
His fastball is elite. Topping out at 102 mph, it sits between 96 and 100 with good movement.
The splitter might be even better. Hovering between 88 and 90 mph, Sasaki recorded a 57.1% whiff rate on his splitter in 2024, which would have been the second-best mark in the majors on that pitch. It looks like his fastball most of the way to home plate until it tumbles into the dirt leaving hitters bemused.
While his slider is clearly his “third” pitcher, it is still comfortably above average. He gets whiffs at an elite rate, although the pitch could do with some refining before he looks to extend his repertoire with a sinker or cutter.
Increased slider usage year-on-year makes Sasaki a more diverse pitcher capable of going deep into MLB games. A minor drop in velocity during the 2024 season is a slight concern, but that won’t stop him being a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2025 if he signs with the Blue Jays.
Steamer projects Sasaki to pitch 148 MLB innings in 2025 at an ERA of 3.19. This might be on the conservative side, considering he had a 2.02 ERA over four seasons in the NPB while striking out 32.4% of hitters (leaving a 26.8% K-BB%, far clear of any other Japanese pitchers to successful make the transition to MLB).
AL East Underdogs
Sasaki would join Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt in the Blue Jays rotation. Toronto’s staff, despite a sizeable payroll, was 19th in xFIP, 27th in wins above average, and 29th in hard-hit rate last season.
Adding Sasaki would be a massive upgrade. His arrival would inevitably see the Jays’ odds to win the AL East shorten from their current price of +1800 at FanDuel and BetMGM.
Like Ohtani, Sasaki has opted to move to MLB early. If he waited a couple of years, he would likely have got a free-agent contract north of $250 million. Instead, he’s cost-controlled for the first few years of his career, which would be invaluable in the medium term with the Jays trying to work out an extension with Guerrero while paying Gausman, Berríos, George Springer, and Giménez for multiple years to come.
Jays Betting Outlook with Sasaki
With the Boston Red Sox acquiring Garrett Crochet, the Tampa Bay Rays getting their pitchers healthy, and the top two teams still looking strong, the Jays are deservedly outsiders for the division as it stands.
Sasaki wouldn’t make them favorites, yet their +300 price to make the playoffs would become very appealing, and we would become even more confident taking the over on 76.5 wins.
There’s a path to the Jays being a playoff team in 2025 with Sasaki. The rotation should be in the top 10. The offense ranked sixth in wins above average last season, despite Bo Bichette enduring the worst year of his career.
Giving up on Jordan Romano – who joined the Philadelphia Phillies as a free agent – was premature, yet Jeff Hoffman is an exciting addition to the back end of the bullpen. The relief corps was a weakness last year, but with the Jays clearly having money burning a hole in their pocket, we could see them swoop for one or two of the remaining late-innings guys.
Sasaki would be a gamechanger for the Jays. Not only would he transform their rotation, but a low-cost potential ace also opens doors to improve the roster elsewhere with plenty of appealing free agents still on the market.
