Since the Wild Card format was introduced in 1970, 11 Wild Card teams have reached the Super Bowl, with six going on to win the Lombardi Trophy. The most recent example came in 2020, when the Tom Brady–led Tampa Bay Buccaneers won it all. I bring this up because it has been five years since a Wild Card team even reached the Super Bowl, but if there were ever a season to break that trend, it is this one.

This is the most wide open playoff field we have seen in a long time. The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens are out of the AFC picture, and no team in the NFC feels like a true lock to win the conference. Wild Cards are “wild” for a reason, and this year’s group might be the most dangerous since 2020.

All six Wild Card teams are strong enough to make a big splash in this year’s playoffs, and in fact several are favored in their opening round matchups. At least four have a realistic path to the Super Bowl, while the other two are capable of knocking off a contender and reshaping the bracket.

True Super Bowl Contenders

Buffalo Bills

Despite not fully living up to preseason expectations, there is something to be said for having the best quarterback left in the playoffs. Josh Allen’s ability to put a team on his back gives Buffalo a ceiling few others can match. When Allen does not need to carry the entire load, emerging star James Cook is more than capable of easing the burden.

Buffalo’s defense has earned a reputation for playoff struggles, but many of those issues came against Kansas City. This year’s AFC is far less offense-driven, and an above-average defensive performance may be all Allen needs to push the Bills on a deep run.

Houston Texans

No team embodies the phrase “defense wins championships” better than the Houston Texans. The 2025 Texans defense is not just good, it has been the most dominant unit in the NFL. On its own, it is capable of winning games against most playoff opponents.

The concern, all season long, has been the offense. That has begun to change. Improved offensive line play has helped C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins find a rhythm at the right time. If the offense can be merely competent, Houston’s defense gives Stroud a clear path to closing out playoff games.

Dangerous If They Get Some Breaks

Los Angeles Rams

Five weeks ago, the Los Angeles Rams were eyeing the No. 1 seed in the NFC and some of the best Super Bowl odds in the league. Now, they are fighting for Wild Card positioning entering Week 18. While disappointing, it does not fundamentally change who this team is.

The Rams may be the most complete roster in the NFC. There are no glaring weaknesses, with strong skill-position talent, excellent line play on both sides, and a quarterback who has already proven he can win a Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford’s age has not shown up this season, and nothing suggests he cannot lead another deep run.

San Francisco 49ers

The NFC West was a war zone this season, and as the saying goes, iron sharpens iron. The San Francisco 49ers emerged battered, but still dangerous.

Injuries piled up throughout the year, and by most measures, San Francisco should have been out of the race. Instead, Kyle Shanahan’s system continues to keep this team competitive. While the lack of elite playmakers is a concern, the pairing of Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey drives the offense, and the defense’s cohesion compensates for any talent gaps.

Possible But Unlikely

Green Bay Packers

Injuries have defined the Green Bay Packers’ season, and consistency has been hard to find. Between Micah Parsons’ injury, the lack of a true No. 1 wide receiver, and Jordan Love’s boom-or-bust tendencies, a Super Bowl run feels unlikely.

Still, on the right day, Green Bay is capable of knocking off a contender and creating chaos in the bracket. 

Los Angeles Chargers

If injuries bothered Green Bay, they devastated the Los Angeles Chargers. Losing tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt left Justin Herbert under constant pressure.

Herbert has responded by playing some of the best football of his career, and the defense has taken a meaningful step forward from last season. They are probably a year away still, but they could certainly get hot and make some noise.

If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.