As the curtain closes on the first round of the College Football Playoff, the 12 team field has been trimmed to eight. What started as a survival exercise now turns into a pressure test. Quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day bring neutral sites, massive stages, and betting markets that finally tighten.

The opening round gave us a little of everything. We saw track meets in Eugene and Norman, and then the complete opposite in College Station where Miami and Texas A&M delivered a 10-3 defensive rock fight that rewarded anyone patient enough to grab the under.

Now, the teams that earned byes are back in the spotlight. Ohio State, Indiana, and Georgia remain the top three national title favorites at FanDuel, but none of them draw a stress free matchup. At this stage, the question is no longer who belongs. It is who can handle the moment.

Below is the current quarterfinal board and how the over-under markets are shaping the betting conversation.

FanDuel Quarterfinal Odds as of December 27, 3:15 pm CST

Cotton Bowl
Miami vs Ohio State (-9.5)
Total: 42.5

Orange Bowl
Oregon (-2.5) vs Texas Tech
Total: 52.5

Rose Bowl
Alabama vs Indiana (-6.5)
Total: 48.5

Sugar Bowl
Ole Miss vs Georgia (-6.5)
Total: 55

Cotton Bowl: Miami vs Ohio State

Total: 42.5

This is the lowest total on the board, and for good reason. Miami just won a first round game by scoring ten points, and Ohio State owns the top scoring defense in the country at under nine points allowed per game.

The market is betting defense, not fireworks. Miami is 5-7 to the over this season, while Ohio State sits at 4-8. If you believe the Buckeyes finally break loose offensively on a fast track, there is value on the over. But if Miami can slow tempo and force long drives, the under remains the sharper angle.

If you can buy this number up even slightly, I lean under. Ohio State can score, but playoff football often punishes impatience.

Rose Bowl: Alabama vs Indiana

Total: 48.5

Indiana continues to be treated like an imposter, even as the only undefeated team left in the field. Less than a touchdown of respect here feels familiar.

The Hoosiers have leaned over all season, finishing 7-5 to the over, and their offense has traveled well. Alabama sits at 5-7, but just came off a high energy comeback win over Oklahoma.

This feels like a stage where Indiana stays aggressive. I trust Mendoza to be poised, and I trust Indiana to score. If you can pull the number down, the over is the play.

P.S. As mentioned in my last GNO-Bowl Season & Brunch Plans, the Rose Bowl is still on my bucket list. Maybe 2027 will be the year.

Orange Bowl: Oregon vs Texas Tech

Total: 52.5

This is the most evenly matched game on the board and the market knows it. Oregon brings one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but Texas Tech has lived all season by collapsing pockets and creating pressure.

The total is high, but both teams have hovered around neutral or under for much of the year. With two capable defenses and a game that profiles as tight into the fourth quarter, I lean under here. This feels more like sustained drives than quick strikes.

Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs Georgia

Total: 55

The highest total of the round, and the easiest under for me.

Yes, the regular season meeting flew over with Georgia winning 43-35. But this is not the same Ole Miss situation. Coaching turnover matters in playoff football, and Lane Kiffin’s exit late in the season cannot be ignored. Pete Golding stepping in stabilizes the defense, not necessarily the offense.

Georgia’s defense is built for games like this, and I expect a slower, more physical contest. The under is the correct side.

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