With two months of the regular season and over 50 games in the books, it is a good time to reflect on the six major MLB award races across the big leagues.
Aside from AL MVP, the award contests are wide open. NL Cy Young and NL Rookie of the Year have no overwhelming favorite as of May 28, with Paul Skenes and Drake Baldwin only holding a narrow advantage over their respective fields.
AL MVP
Aaron Judge — +8000
Bobby Witt Jr. — +3000
Jose Ramirez — +9000
Gunnar Henderson — +12000
Wyatt Langford — +12000
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — +12000
Judge’s OPS is almost 100 points higher than it was in 2024. Last season, he put together one of the best hitting campaigns since the Second World War. He is even better this year, with his mark of 4.7 fWAR coming in 1.5 ahead of any other player in the majors.
Witt put up a fight against Judge in 2024, but he has not been at the same level this time around. If sportsbooks had not taken so much preseason money on the Kansas City Royals shortstop, his odds would have surely faded further by now.
No one can wrap up a season-long award in May, but it is hard to see how anyone beats Judge to MVP if he plays over 130 games. A serious injury is all that can derail his candidacy with the chasm between his production thus far and the next best player.
For bettors looking to find value in case Judge misses a considerable chunk of time, Henderson is a player to consider. He has a .901 OPS over his last 22 games. There is a path for Henderson to finish with considerably better numbers than Witt.
Best bet: Gunnar Henderson (+12000)
NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani — +190
Fernando Tatis Jr. — +750
Kyle Tucker — +1200
Pete Crow-Armstrong — +1200
Corbin Carroll — +1600
Pumping 97 mph in a live bullpen session a few days ago, Ohtani has taken another major step toward becoming a two-way player again. Even before he gets back on a big-league mound, Ohtani is tied for the lead in NL fWAR with Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Crow-Armstrong has been an amazing story through the first two months, but his underlying numbers indicate this offensive production is not sustainable long term.
In contrast, this might be the time to put money on Tatis. His ice-cold May has kept him at +750 to win MVP, which looks like great value for a player with truly elite metrics in hitting, defense, and baserunning.
Ohtani is obviously the man to beat. If he pitches at an above-average level, it will be hard to argue against a second consecutive NL MVP for the Japanese megastar, but there are some solid challengers in Tatis, Tucker, and Carroll.
Best bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+750)
AL Cy Young
Tarik Skubal — +125
Max Fried — +550
Garrett Crochet — +750
Hunter Brown — +950
Nathan Eovaldi — +1500
Jacob deGrom — +1700
Skubal pitched a Maddux at the weekend, throwing a complete game shutout in under 100 pitches. The reigning AL Cy Young winner struck out 13 hitters in the process and threw his hardest pitch to complete the shutout.
Fried has pitched well so far this year, but his sub-two ERA is not going to last. Crochet’s command is a major concern, with his walk rate increasing significantly on last year’s mark. His location plus is 95.
After pitching over 320 innings across the last two seasons, Brown is an intriguing bet at +950. He allowed five earned runs in his last start, which could make this an opportune time to back him. He has shown he can be dominant across a full regular season, which cannot be said about other longer odds Cy Young candidates.
The ages of Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom mean they are not worth backing unless their odds lengthen. It has been half a decade since deGrom pitched enough volume to contend for this award.
Kris Bubic is flattered by a 1.45 ERA. He does not have the stuff to be an elite pitcher for 30 or more starts. We need to see more from Bryan Woo to put him in this conversation.
Carlos Rodón is a name to watch after striking out 10 Los Angeles Angels. The former San Francisco Giant has got his strikeout rate back to where it was in his 2021 and 2022 peak, but his pitching plus is a long way from the high-water mark at the start of this decade.
Best bet: Tarik Skubal (+125)
NL Cy Young
Paul Skenes — +240
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — +280
Zack Wheeler — +340
Logan Webb — +1400
Hunter Greene — +1400
Jesus Luzardo — +1800
It is a three-horse race for the NL Cy Young according to the betting markets. Webb and Greene should be considered legitimate contenders too. Greene leads the NL in pitching plus, Webb is tied with Dylan Cease in the same category, and both are on course to post the best numbers of their respective careers.
Yamamoto’s brilliant start to the year has seen his odds get far too short. His pitching plus is worse than Jameson Taillon and Jordan Hicks. Such a high level of hit suppression does not seem likely to continue for six months with his stuff.
Skenes has not been throwing at full tilt, seemingly in an effort to ensure he can pitch at a high level throughout the season. His numbers are still Cy Young-caliber, though, and he is the deserving favorite after two months of the regular season.
Wheeler feels like the safest bet on the board with his long track record of elite pitching and posting high innings totals. Given their respective prices, however, Webb and Greene represent the best value. Their odds could shorten quickly with a couple of strong starts.
Best bets: Logan Webb and Hunter Greene (+1400)
AL Rookie of the Year
Jacob Wilson — +230
Jasson Dominguez — +600
Will Warren — +1300
Shane Smith — +1800
Kristian Campbell — +2000
Campbell has seen his odds lengthen dramatically after a scorching start to the year. A .311 OPS over 15 games will do that. Going against the grain and backing the Boston Red Sox rookie could be a good option here. His plate discipline skills are not going to vanish completely, and he has shown he can hit big-league pitching hard.
Dominguez still cannot combine all those elite tools into a solidly above-average outfield package. Yes, he should cruise to a 20-20 season if he is healthy, but there is no guarantee he will post an OPS plus above 95. His defense is going to remain an issue.
With a 146 OPS plus, Wilson is understandably the clear favorite for now. It is early for any rookie to be at such a short price, though, so it is best to look elsewhere for value. The Red Sox need further reinforcements, and with Roman Anthony crushing the ball in the minors (.971 OPS), he is a great option at a long price.
Best bet: Roman Anthony (+5000)
NL Rookie of the Year
Drake Baldwin — +310
AJ Smith-Shawver — +400
Agustin Ramirez — +600
Logan Henderson — +1000
Matt Shaw — +1200
Dylan Crews’ underperformance and Roki Sasaki’s injury have left a wide-open NL Rookie of the Year race. No one has really built a significant lead thus far, though Baldwin is threatening to do so.
Sporting a lot of bright red on his Baseball Savant page and playing passable defense behind the plate, Baldwin has been the best all-around rookie in the National League so far.
Smith-Shawver’s underlying numbers suggest he has been very fortunate to have such a good start to the year. Ramirez is not the caliber of hitter who can compensate for his lack of defensive value.
With such a weak field, Bubba Chandler remains a value bet at +2000. The Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander has struck out 12.6 hitters per nine in Triple-A.
Best bet: Drake Baldwin (+310)
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