It was obvious after Feast Week in late November that Michigan was the best team in college basketball. The Wolverines trounced a very good Gonzaga team by 40 in the championship game of the Player’s Era Festival, a tournament loaded with many of the nation’s top programs. From there, they kept rolling, clicking on all cylinders and blowing out opponents for more than a month.

Once the calendar flipped to 2026, however, things became more difficult for Coach Dusty May and the Wolverines. They barely survived Penn State before dropping their first home game to Wisconsin. The Badgers needed 15 three-pointers and a heroic performance from John Blackwell to pull off the upset. Michigan did not play poorly, but a home loss to a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team made it clear they are not as untouchable as they looked just a week or two earlier.

Despite that loss, Michigan remains one of the best teams in the country. They have tremendous size and depth, with shooting and skill at every position. They play extremely smart basketball, with each player seemingly always in the right spot and consistently making the right decisions. Since that early-season tournament run, they had been playing nearly flawless basketball, making good teams look ordinary and establishing themselves as the national championship favorite. May took Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023, and it would not be surprising to see him back on that stage again in 2026. While it is common for teams to lose a little focus around the holidays, the gap between Michigan and the rest of the top teams now looks much narrower.

At this point, Houston poses the biggest threat to Michigan. Even though the Cougars came into the week ranked seventh in both the AP and Coaches Polls, they are finding their rhythm and doing what they do best, clamping down defensively with a tough, physical style that wears opponents down. Their biggest concern is depth and a lack of scoring punch off the bench, but freshman Isiah Harwell has stepped up and looks ready to contribute consistently. Coach Kelvin Sampson is coming off another near-miss in pursuit of his first national championship, and it would not be surprising if 2026 is the season he finally gets over the hump.

Arizona remains undefeated and currently sits at No. 1, but their flawless record will be tested in a rugged Big 12 conference, starting this weekend against a strong UCF team. The Wildcats rely heavily on freshmen, but so far they have embraced the challenge and delivered in high-pressure moments.

UConn is another team with a legitimate shot to win it all. The Huskies bring big-game experience and multiple recent national titles. They lost to Arizona earlier this season, but they were without two of their best players for that game. When the tournament arrives in March, UConn will once again be one of the most difficult teams to eliminate.

If the tournament began today, my Final Four picks would be Houston, Michigan, Arizona, and UConn. Of course, a lot can change over the next two months. Below are my current top 32 teams, those I would expect to advance to the second round, along with my top 30 college players to consider for the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft.

UNC’s Caleb Wilson has taken over the top spot on my player board. His dominant two-way impact gives the Tar Heels a real chance to make a deep run. Unfortunately, North Carolina is once again struggling to settle on its best lineup, a problem that has become all too familiar under Hubert Davis. Defensive inconsistency and uneven guard play continue to hold them back. That said, when you have the best player on the floor, you always have a fighting chance in a win-or-go-home setting.

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