Bierman’s Bowl Bets: Wave 3 (Dec 27 – 28)
We’re off to a strong start with our bowl picks, kicking things off at 12-5, and we’re determined to keep the momentum going! This next wave of bowl bets is a supersized edition, featuring 13 games across Friday and Saturday. While a few matchups might not be the most exciting, there are some intriguing games with lines that I’m particularly excited about.
As stated previously, I’m picking every bowl game this season, which means not every pick comes with the same level of confidence. You’ll see that reflected in the number of footballs assigned to each pick – the fewer footballs, the lower the confidence. Five footballs mean we love it!
Be sure to check back on Sunday or Monday for the next article with our upcoming wave of bowl predictions. Until then, enjoy the games and good luck with your picks! ?
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Friday, December 27th at 12:00 PM
Fort Worth, Texas
Oklahoma (-3) vs Navy
This one is incredibly tough to predict, which is why it’s getting lower confidence points. On paper, it’s a classic matchup of a blue-blood program in Oklahoma versus a Navy team with fewer resources and a very different playing style compared to most D1 programs. At first glance, Oklahoma giving only 3 points might feel like a gift.
However, this line opened at 8.5 and has dropped significantly, largely due to Oklahoma’s opt-outs, including starting QB Jackson Arnold, who is transferring to Auburn. On the other hand, Navy doesn’t face the same roster issues, and their QB, Blake Horvath, who battled injuries earlier in the year, returned against Army and looked sharp. He’ll lead the Midshipmen into this matchup.
That said, Oklahoma’s opt-outs could actually work in their favor offensively, as their current unit is one of the five worst in the country in yardage gained. Meanwhile, their defense remains stout, and if they can contain Navy’s unique triple-option attack, the Sooners should still come out on top.
Ultimately, this game feels like a true toss-up, which is why we’re only assigning one football to this pick.
The Pick: Oklahoma -3
Birmingham Bowl
Friday, December 27th at 3:30 PM
Birmingham, Alabama
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt (+3)
This game is yet another example of how bowl game opt-outs can completely shift the outlook of a matchup. If this game had been played during the regular season, I likely would have leaned toward Georgia Tech to win and cover. However, the Yellow Jackets are entering this bowl game with four starters opting out due to the transfer portal, while Vanderbilt remains at full strength with no major absences.
Georgia Tech does have QB Haynes King, who announced he will play, and that’s a significant boost for the Yellow Jackets. That said, Vanderbilt’s offense, while ranked in the bottom 20 nationally, has a steady leader in QB Diego Pavia, who has the poise to keep his team in this game. Additionally, the Commodores’ defense is decent at forcing turnovers, and a couple of timely takeaways could swing things in their favor.
This is a low-confidence pick given the uncertainties, but I’ll take Vanderbilt and the points in this one.
The Pick: Vanderbilt (+3)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Friday, December 27th at 7:00 PM
Memphis, Tennessee
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas (-1.5)
This is another challenging game to predict. But ultimately, I like Arkansas and feel relatively good about it.
Texas Tech has minimal opt-outs, but they’ll be without starting QB Behren Morton, who recently underwent surgery. Freshman Will Hammond will take over under center for the Red Raiders, which raises questions about their offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Arkansas has been hit hard by opt-outs and transfers, leaving them with only six offensive linemen on the roster. However, they’ll still have their talented QB Taylen Green leading the way, which gives them an edge offensively.
Both teams have explosive offenses when fully staffed, but the uncertainty surrounding Texas Tech’s QB situation and Arkansas’s depleted roster make this game tricky. That said, Arkansas’s defense, while not elite, is significantly better than Texas Tech’s, and that’s what ultimately tips the scale in favor of the Razorbacks.
I’ll take Arkansas here and lay the small line.
The Pick: Arkansas -1.5
DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Friday, December 27th at 8:00 PM
San Diego, CA
Syracuse (-16.5) vs Washington State
My podcast co-host and Sandman Sports co-founder, Bill Sanders—better known as the Sandman—believes Syracuse giving the points is an absolute slam dunk. He’s even confident they could win by 30. While I may not have quite the same level of fervor, I do agree with my esteemed colleague and will back the Orange in this matchup.
Washington State will be missing 11 starters, compared to just one for Syracuse. The Cougars are also without their head coach and both coordinators, leaving the team in complete disarray. While teams sometimes rally in these situations, I don’t see it happening here. Syracuse, on the other hand, boasts a top-10 offense, averaging nearly 450 yards per game, and a defense that’s more than solid enough to handle Wazzu’s depleted roster.
The only hesitation in assigning this a higher confidence rating is the potential for Syracuse to lack motivation, leading to sluggish play or careless turnovers. Still, we’re giving this pick a confident 3.5 footballs and are solidly backing the Orange to cover.
The Pick: Syracuse -16.5
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Friday, December 27th at 10:30 PM
Las Vegas, Nevada
Texas A&M (-4) vs USC
Each week, we make our Sandman Legend picks, and I usually have plenty of time to do my homework. However, with the holiday craziness and the tight schedule, I didn’t get a chance to dig deep before submitting my picks, so I went with USC. Now that I’ve taken a closer look, I really like Texas A&M to cover the spread instead.
While the Aggies will be without QB Connor Weigman (transferring to Houston) and WR Cyrus Allen (sitting out), they’re otherwise at full strength. Coach Mike Elko appears to be taking this game seriously, and I expect motivation won’t be an issue. On the other hand, USC is dealing with a slew of transfers and opt-outs, including their starting QB, Miller Moss.
USC has been a disaster all season, with their only respectable win coming in Week 1 against LSU. This program is trending downward, and 2025 could be Lincoln Riley’s last year in Troy if things don’t turn around.
I’m confident Texas A&M wins this one, likely by double digits, so I’ll happily give the four points and roll with the Aggies.
The Pick: Texas A&M -4
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 11:00 AM
Boston, Massachusetts
North Carolina vs. Connecticut (+2.5)
I’ve talked several times on the podcast this season about how impressed I am with the job Jim Mora Jr. has done since taking over at UConn. He’s completely transformed this program, making them competitive every time they take the field.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is in a bit of disarray. Mack Brown is no longer at the helm, and their offensive coordinator, Chip Lindsey, has left for Michigan. Tight ends coach Freddie Kitchens will step in as interim head coach for this game. Add to that a handful of player opt-outs, and UNC won’t be at full strength.
On the flip side, UConn will be hungry for a win, as bowl games are a rare achievement for this program. The Tar Heels have only one FBS win against a bowl team this season, and that was all the way back in Week 1 against Minnesota. This team looks like they’re just playing out the string.
I actually think UConn wins this game outright, so getting points here is a bonus. We love the Huskies in this spot!
The Pick: UCONN +2.5
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 12:00 PM
Bronx, New York
Boston College (+4) vs. Nebraska
Boston College’s QB Thomas Castellanos, who started most of the season, was benched late in the year and has since entered the transfer portal. Neither offense has been particularly impressive this season, but Nebraska, under Matt Rhule, has shown signs of progress in his rebuilding efforts. Despite losing 5 of their last 6 games and barely scraping into bowl eligibility, the Cornhuskers’ defense has been a standout unit that could cause problems for Boston College.
That said, Nebraska is dealing with a fair number of opt-outs, which could shift the balance. Boston College, led by seasoned head coach Bill O’Brien, seems poised to show up motivated, eager to prove themselves against a Big Ten program. The Eagles have been relatively consistent, with only one loss this season to a team that didn’t qualify for a bowl (a 5-7 Virginia squad in October). Plus, they’re coming off a dominant win over Pittsburgh, powered by new QB Grayson James.
While it’s not a high-confidence pick, I’m leaning toward Boston College to cover and potentially win outright in this matchup.
The Pick: Boston College +4
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 2:15 PM
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Louisiana (+11.5) vs. TCU
The confidence in this pick hinges heavily on the health of Louisiana QB Ben Wooldridge. Wooldridge started most of the season but got injured a few games ago. Backup QB Chandler Fields stepped in and was serviceable, but he suffered an injury in the conference title game and won’t be available. Wooldridge is listed as probable, and if he’s under center, I really like the Ragin’ Cajuns in this matchup.
I’ve backed Louisiana several times in my best bets this year, and they delivered every time except once. This team features a top-25 offense and a solid defense, making them a tough out. On the flip side, TCU boasts a top-20 offense, but I’m not sold on them overall. Despite their eight wins, only one came against a bowl-eligible team, raising questions about their true strength.
This line feels huge for a bowl game between two teams with comparable stats but potentially differing levels of motivation. I’ll gladly take the underdog here. Go Ragin’ Cajuns!
The Pick: Louisiana +11.5
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 3:30 PM
Orlando, Florida
Iowa State (+3.5) vs. Miami (FL)
Both of these teams exceeded expectations this season and delivered impressive performances. Miami’s CFP hopes were dashed in their season finale, a 42-36 loss to Syracuse. Throughout the year, the Hurricanes flirted with disaster, frequently falling behind early and relying on late-game heroics to pull out wins. Against the Orange, they just couldn’t climb out of the hole, and it cost them.
QB Cam Ward, a Heisman finalist and likely first-round NFL draft pick, has stated he’ll play in this game. However, it’s uncertain whether he’ll play the entire game, or even suit up at all. Even if Ward does play the full game, Iowa State has shown they’re more than capable of rising to the occasion. Under Coach Matt Campbell, the Cyclones have proven to be a resilient squad, with top-30 units on both offense and defense.
While Miami boasts the #1 offense in the country, I think Iowa State has the tools to keep pace and cover the spread, especially with the favorable hook. We’re rolling with the Cyclones and the points in this one.
The Pick: Iowa State +3.5
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 4:30 PM
Tucson, Arizona
Miami (OH) (-2.5) vs. Colorado State
The “other” Miami, the one in the less tropical part of the country, stands out for its dominance on defense. Unlike their Hurricanes counterparts, who excel on the offensive side, the Redhawks boast a top-20 defensive unit that can be absolutely stifling. QB Brett Gabbert provides steady leadership and should have success moving the ball against a mediocre Rams defense.
Both teams are dealing with opt-outs and injuries, so this one could go in any direction—fitting for a bowl game named after Snoop Dogg. That said, Miami’s coach Chuck Martin is one of the most underrated leaders in the FBS, and I expect he’ll have the Redhawks prepared and motivated.
Miami appears to be the better team overall, and the fact that the line is less than a field goal makes this pick more appealing. While it’s not one of our most confident plays, we’re taking Miami and giving the points.
The Pick: Miami -2.5
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 5:45 PM
Annapolis, Maryland
East Carolina vs. North Carolina State (-6)
Let’s be honest – these are two bad teams. Between them, they’ve managed just 13 wins, and only three of those came against bowl-eligible opponents. East Carolina’s offense can certainly move the ball at times, but they’ll be without two of their top wide receivers, which significantly hampers their firepower.
This is probably my least favorite game of the entire bowl season, and it’s tough to get a read on it. The stats don’t offer much to separate these teams, but if I had to pick something, I’d point to NC State’s discipline as they average three fewer penalties per game compared to East Carolina.
The Wolfpack also appears to have more overall talent, though this pick is more of a gut call than anything else. Confidence is low, but we’ll take NC State and lay the points – just don’t expect us to get too excited about it.
The Pick: North Carolina State -6
Valero Alamo Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 7:30 PM
San Antonio, Texas
BYU (+4) vs. Colorado
It appears that Colorado’s star players, including QB Shedeur Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter, are set to play in this game—a refreshing and commendable decision if it holds true. Of course, as I’ve mentioned in past predictions, there’s always a chance players could opt out at the last minute or choose not to play the full game. For now, though, I’ll take their word for it and assume both will suit up.
Interestingly, despite Colorado’s reputation for having an explosive offense, their production has been only slightly above average in the FBS. In fact, BYU’s offense is nearly identical in terms of yards gained. What really stands out is defense: while Colorado’s unit has been solid, BYU’s defense has been even better, ranking in the top 20 nationally.
While Colorado undoubtedly has more star power, I’m not convinced they’re significantly better than BYU. The Cougars have impressed all season, with their only two losses coming to CFP-bound Arizona State and a late-season slip-up against Kansas. This feels like a game that could go either way, but with BYU getting more than a field goal, I’ll take the points and roll with the Cougars.
The Pick: BYU +4
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, December 28th at 9:15 PM
Shreveport, Louisiana
Louisiana Tech (+16.5) vs. Army
On our podcast a few weeks back, during our bold bowl predictions, I picked Marshall to win this game outright when we thought they were the ones playing. However, Marshall later lost their head coach and a wave of players to the transfer portal, leading them to back out of the game. Enter the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, a nearby Shreveport team stepping in to fill the spot.
While I’m not predicting Louisiana Tech to win, I do like them to cover the massive spread. Despite their 5-7 record, the Bulldogs surprisingly rank 11th in the nation in yards allowed on defense. Their offense isn’t great, sitting in the bottom half of FBS teams, but here’s the key: in their seven losses this season, six were by 10 points or less, with the only exception being a 21-point defeat to Arkansas. This shows they consistently keep games close, and I believe they’ll do the same here.
Army, on the other hand, has had an impressive season, but they’re coming off a surprising loss to Navy in their annual rivalry game. I can’t help but think that sting could leave them a bit unmotivated for this matchup. While Army is clearly the better team and should win, this is a big spread to cover, and I’m fairly confident the Bulldogs can hang around. I’ll take Louisiana Tech and the points.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech +16.5
