The first round of the College Football Playoff is officially in the books, and while most of the outcomes followed the expected script, the Texas A&M-Miami result certainly did not. There is almost always one surprise this time of year, but few saw that one coming.

With the field now narrowed and the stakes even higher, we shift from general evaluations to a closer look at how each result shapes next week’s matchups and what bettors should be thinking as the playoff picture tightens.

First Round Playoff Results

Miami 10, Texas A&M 7

The shocker of the opening round ended Texas A&M’s nice season abruptly. The Aggies never found offensive rhythm, as Marcel Reed threw two interceptions and led the team in rushing with just 27 yards. Miami’s defense dominated the line of scrimmage, with Rueben Bain Jr. recording three sacks and Keionte Scott adding two more. The Hurricanes silenced doubts about their playoff inclusion, while A&M heads into the offseason wondering “what if”.

Alabama 34, Oklahoma 24

What was expected to be a defensive slugfest turned into a more explosive game than anticipated. Ty Simpson bounced back from a rough showing against Georgia, throwing for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Oklahoma took an early 17-point lead and looked in control, but a costly pick-six late in the first half flipped momentum, and the Sooners never fully recovered.

Oregon 51, James Madison 34

James Madison was overmatched, but credit is due for their second-half fight. Oregon’s offense was explosive, though Dante Moore’s two interceptions against an overmatched defense raised some eyebrows. JMU running back Wayne Knight capped a strong season with 110 yards on 17 carries in a game that was closer on the scoreboard than on the field.

Ole Miss 41, Tulane 10

Ole Miss made quick work of Tulane in the most lopsided matchup of the round. Outside of a late garbage-time score, the Green Wave offense was shut down completely. Trinidad Chambliss continued his terrific season, completing 23 of 29 passes for 282 yards and a touchdown while adding two more scores on the ground.

CFP Bracket Update: Quarterfinal Matchups

#4 Texas Tech vs. #5 Oregon

Oregon eased off late against James Madison, making it hard to gauge just how dominant they truly were. Texas Tech presents a much stiffer defensive test, and Dante Moore will need to be sharper. Mistakes that were survivable last week will not be here.

#1 Indiana vs. #9 Alabama

Alabama continues to justify its inclusion one win at a time, but Indiana’s unbeaten run remains one of the season’s best stories. If Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza maintains his level of play, this one could get ugly for the Crimson Tide.

#3 Georgia vs. #6 Ole Miss

This feels like the most evenly matched quarterfinal. Georgia must generate consistent pressure on Chambliss, whose mobility drives the Ole Miss offense. On the other side, the Rebels will need to disrupt Gunner Stockton early to keep Georgia from settling in.

#2 Ohio State vs. #10 Miami

Miami proved it belongs, but this is a major step up. Ohio State has been dominant all season, with its only loss coming to top-seeded Indiana. Carson Beck will need a significant jump from last week, as Miami’s defense alone will not be enough to carry this matchup.

Betting Strategy: Adjusting for the Quarterfinals

Value Is Harder to Find

Single-game edges shrink as the field narrows, so bettors may need to explore carefully constructed parlays or derivative markets to find worthwhile value.

Expect Defensive Games

Elite defenses tend to advance, which often leads to lower-scoring games. Unders deserve serious consideration as pressure mounts and possessions tighten.

Do Not Forget the Top Seeds

Time off can cause recency bias. Teams like Georgia and Texas Tech may not have played in the postseason yet, but overlooking them because of last week’s performances is a mistake. Revisit the full-season profile before placing bets.

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