First Round Playoff Results

Miami 24, Ohio State 14

If you had to pick one quarterfinal where an upset felt least likely, this was it. Outside of their loss to Indiana, Ohio State cruised through the season, winning comfortably and appearing to have a smooth path to the championship game.

Instead, Miami’s defense delivered a season-defining performance. The Hurricanes racked up five sacks and forced two interceptions, with the Reuben Bain Jr.-led unit controlling the game and allowing Carson Beck to play the role of game manager. It was a disciplined, dominant effort that sent Ohio State home.

Indiana 38, Alabama 3

Alabama’s reign may officially be over after an absolute dismantling at the hands of the Hoosiers. Indiana’s Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza was ultra-efficient, going 14-of-16 for 192 yards and three touchdowns.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson exited in the third quarter with a cracked rib, but even before the injury, the offense struggled badly. While Ryan Williams has already announced his return, it raises the question of how many Crimson Tide players may enter the transfer portal after an underwhelming season capped by this loss.

Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34

While Lane Kiffin’s departure remains major news, the bigger story right now is just how impressive Trinidad Chambliss has been. The former Division II quarterback shredded a talented Georgia defense, completing 30 of 46 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns.

Few expected a game this high-scoring, and even fewer expected Chambliss to look this composed. He has pushed Ole Miss toward a potential storybook finish in what is shaping up as one of the most remarkable transfer success stories in recent memory.

Oregon 23, Texas Tech 0

A shutout in Oregon vs. Texas Tech was not shocking. Oregon pitching the shutout was.

The Ducks advanced by leaning on defense, not offense. Dante Moore was steady but unspectacular, moving the ball without finding the end zone. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton struggled badly under the spotlight, accounting for just 105 total yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns.

The Red Raiders finished with barely more than 200 total yards of offense, as Oregon earned a convincing win and punched its ticket to the semifinals.

CFP Bracket Update: Semifinal Matchups

#1 Indiana vs. #5 Oregon

These playoffs have reinforced one truth: anything can happen. Oregon cannot be dismissed after its defensive performance against Texas Tech, which was a revelation this late in the season.

The centerpiece of this matchup is the quarterback duel between Mendoza and Moore. Both are widely viewed as potential top-two quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft. While much can change before draft season, this game offers a massive stage, not only for a championship appearance, but for positioning atop draft boards.

#6 Ole Miss vs. #10 Miami

Trinidad Chambliss vs. Carson Beck. Very few had that penciled in as a semifinal matchup.

Neither team was expected to reach this point, and much of the media is now giving this game a serious look for the first time. Chambliss has arguably been the most impressive offensive player of the postseason, while Miami’s defense has played at an elite level.

If Miami delivers another defensive masterclass, Beck has shown he can do enough to secure the win. But if Chambliss can exploit openings with both his arm and mobility, Miami may be forced to win in a way it hasn’t often needed to this season.

Betting Strategy: Adjusting for the Semifinals

Chambliss Stat Parlays in Play

Many bettors will shy away from Chambliss props because of Miami’s defense, but he is neck-and-neck with Mendoza as the hottest quarterback right now and deserves serious consideration.

Dante Moore May Over-perform

Moore has not been dominant lately, but this matchup against Mendoza carries enormous NFL implications. Keep an eye on his passing lines, which may offer more value than expected.

Don’t Overreact to the Oregon Shutout

Oregon’s defense is solid, but expecting a repeat of last week’s performance is dangerous. The total may be shaded lower than it should be after the Texas Tech result. If value presents itself, take advantage.

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