Semifinals Playoff Results

Miami 31, Ole Miss 27

When this game was set, the expectation was that it would come down to Ole Miss’ offense and Miami’s defense. Carson Beck had other plans and flipped the script on its head.

Miami’s offense showed up in a massive way to propel the Hurricanes into the Championship game. A last-second addition to the CFP, Miami came into this matchup already well past their expected exit point. With just over three minutes left, it looked like that exit was finally coming.

Instead, down three, Beck led Miami down the field and, rather than settling for a game-tying field goal, ran the ball in from three yards out to take the lead with just 18 seconds remaining.

Trinidad Chambliss had an explosive but erratic game, and this could have been a much easier win for the Hurricanes if their defensive backs were able to come down with one or two of his several poor throws. No one expected Miami to be here, but they have absolutely earned it.

Indiana 56, Oregon 22

After Oregon’s shutout of Texas Tech in the Quarterfinals, there was hope the Ducks’ defense could at least make things difficult for Mendoza and the Hoosiers. As the score shows, that did not happen.

Indiana punched its ticket to the Finals with an all-around masterclass. Mendoza was nearly perfect, going 17 of 20 with five passing touchdowns, and D’Angelo Ponds’ pick-six just 11 seconds into the game set a tone that carried through the rest of the night.

Mendoza was clearly the better quarterback between himself and Dante Moore and has almost certainly cemented himself as the #1 QB in the upcoming draft class. Oregon can feel good about reaching the semifinals, but they will need to address their defense in a serious way this offseason if they want to take the next step in 2026.

CFP Championship Game Matchup

#1 Indiana vs. #10 Miami

The Heisman-winning quarterback against the hottest defense in college football. This game projects as a slugfest, but with enough variables to swing it in any direction.

Fernando Mendoza has looked completely unflappable in the postseason, and Curt Cignetti has this team playing without any obvious weakness. It is hard to see how Miami matches up against this group, but we said the same thing when they faced Ohio State.

The biggest matchup in this game will be Indiana’s offensive line versus Reuben Bain Jr. and the Miami front four. Mendoza diagnoses defenses quickly and consistently finds passing windows, so Miami’s best chance to slow him down is pressure. If he has time in the pocket, this defense is going to have a very difficult night.

On the other side, Carson Beck will need another big performance. He was electric against Ole Miss, and his leadership was the difference in that last-second win. The entirety of this game is one massive moment, and Beck will need to be locked in from the opening snap if the Hurricanes are going to knock off the undefeated Hoosiers.

Betting Strategy: Adjusting for the Championship

Do Not Expect a Repeat From Fletcher Jr.

The Miami running back piled up 133 yards against Ole Miss, consistently moving the chains. That is unlikely to translate against Indiana, which ranks third nationally in rushing yards allowed per game against FBS opponents. Avoid Fletcher Jr. when building parlays.

Mendoza Touchdowns Over Yards

Mendoza has thrown for 250 or more yards only three times this season and has not topped 200 in the Playoff. Focus on passing touchdowns rather than yardage. His touch and vision make him particularly dangerous in the red zone.

Carson Beck Yards Are Worth the Gamble

Miami will need to keep pace with Indiana’s offense to stay in this game. Beck will be throwing at least as much as he did against Ole Miss, and possibly more if the Hurricanes fall behind early. Using Beck’s passing yardage as part of a parlay is a smart way to attack this matchup.

If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.