The total is one of three core betting markets for the NBA. Betting on NBA Game Totals can be quite exciting as sportsbooks often make the total, moneyline, and spread available before other markets go live.

Whether looking at building a mega parlay in the midst of the regular season or trying to find a value angle on the total for a key playoff game, there are some key tips you need to follow for game totals betting. Betting on NBA Game Totals is a strategy used by many fans to leverage these tips effectively.

Totals are a more diverse betting option than simply wagering on the over or under.

Sportsbooks provide a catalogue of alternate lines to consider, along with totals for each quarter and half. Of course, you can always choose to go with a team total rather than relying on both teams to hit a certain line.

Pace, Pace, Pace

Checking the respective pace of the two teams should be the first thing you do when considering an NBA totals bet. To succeed in betting on NBA Game Totals, you must look at their season-long numbers, their pace over the last few games, and how their pace is impacted when their currently unavailable players are sidelined.

There can be up to a 10-possession difference per game between the teams with the highest and lowest paces in the NBA. That inevitably has a massive impact on the number of points scored in their games.

Check Over/Under Trends

Sites like Team Rankings provide an immense amount of betting data for NBA fans.

Look at how frequently teams have hit the under or over, either looking at the current campaign or analyzing the last few seasons. The filters on the site allow you to look at back-to-back over/under trends, home games, road games, rest disadvantages/advantages, and various other factors that can impact a team’s performance. Understanding these trends is crucial when betting on NBA game totals.

Maybe sportsbooks have been misevaluating a team all season. Maybe they are yet to adjust to a change in their pace or haven’t changed the lines despite the team consistently hitting the under when they have a rest advantage of their opponent.

Embrace Live Betting

The total can move substantially once a game has tipped off. React quickly to take advantage of sportsbooks over-adjusting their lines. For example, if the Boston Celtics miss six open threes in the first few minutes, the line is bound to move down.

This is a great opportunity to bet the in-play over. Boston isn’t going to keep missing those shots if they get good looks.

The flip side of this scenario is taking the under when a team is scorching hot from the field early on. They’re not going to make 70% of their threes all night (or probably not, anyway), so you can bank on some regression later in the game.

The key to making this work is spotting the more sustainable patterns in a game. A team might intentionally be giving away above-the-break threes to subpar shooters. Seeing those players miss good looks doesn’t necessarily mean they will start draining shots later in the game.

On the other hand, a team getting beaten up on the boards throughout the first quarter might indicate a bucketload of extra possessions for their opponent. This should make that team’s over more appealing. Live betting can be particularly effective when betting on NBA Game Totals due to these in-game shifts.

Research The Refs

Some referees are stricter than others. Some referees are harsher on certain players than others (particularly those with a reputation for foul-baiting). The league occasionally introduces new ‘guidance’ for officiating decisions.

Free throws are – as the name indicates – ‘free’ points for over bettors due to the clock being stopped.

A whistle-happy ref can force the total up. It can also work against a team which relies on getting out in transition. Teams with a tendency to foul are unlikely to hold their opponent under their team total if they’re giving up 25+ free throws in a game.

On the flip side, the free-flowing nature of a low-foul game can favor a fast-paced team. It’s generally going to leave us with fewer total points, however, as there should be many fewer free throws. Researching referees helps refine your strategy for betting on NBA Game Totals.

Project The Game

The winner of the game doesn’t have a direct impact on your over/under bet. Nor does the margin of victory.

It is still a factor to bear in mind. Close-fought games, with the teams only separated by a few points late in the fourth quarter, can lead to more points. Not only does this open the opportunity of overtime, but it also leads to intentional fouls, timeouts, and cleverly designed out-of-bounds plays. Projecting the game flow is a vital component when betting on NBA Game Totals.

Clutch minutes can descend into halfcourt, slower-paced basketball. It can equally lead to live-ball turnovers and easy buckets as teams lock in on defense and aim to force steals.

A blowout win often leads to several minutes of garbage time. One team winning by 15+ points generally leaves the other team with a lower points total, making it much harder for the game to go over.

Like this and want to also cash in on college basketball? Then check out this Guide to Betting on College Basketball.