Guide to betting on MLB win totals 

MLB win totals are made available during the offseason by major sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.

Win totals are one of the most popular baseball futures markets and are commonly referenced in wider MLB discourse as an indicator of what is expected from a team.

It’s a long wait for a payout when placing a win total wager in the offseason, though it can be a very profitable market if you nail your research. Win totals are also a great way to stay invested throughout the season, perhaps giving you extra teams to root for.

What are MLB win totals?

MLB win totals are set by the sportsbook several months before the regular season begins. Bettors then wager on whether the team will win over or under that number of games in the regular season.

For example, if the New York Yankees are given a line of 87.5, bettors will bet on over or under this number. An over bet would only payout if the Yankees won 88 or more games.

Sportsbooks provide other win total markets. At FanDuel, for instance, you have the option to bet on teams to reach 70, 80, 90, 100, and 110 wins. There is also a market to bet on a team to break the single-season wins record.

Obviously, the teams with higher win total lines are not available in the 70+ wins market. This is a way to access some shorter or longer odds if the standard over/under doesn’t represent value. If a team’s line is set at 86.5, for example, and you think they will clear that easily, it might be worth backing them for 90+ wins at a longer price.

You can also wager on which teams will finish with the best and worst records.

When can you bet on MLB win totals?

Sportsbooks will publish their win total lines during the offseason. Lines are available by January at the absolute latest, though these can move depending on offseason moves and injuries.

Most sportsbooks allow you to bet on MLB win totals once the season has begun. This varies between platforms, however, so it’s worth checking how long win totals are available to bet on at your preferred sportsbook.

Timing is a big factor in betting on MLB win totals. The general rule of thumb is to bet as soon as possible on unders and leave it longer when backing a team’s over.

Markets like ‘best regular season record’ and ‘worst regular season record’ are worth keeping an eye on throughout the year. Prices can alter considerably when teams are on hot or cold streaks – losing back-to-back series could make it a good time to take a team to have the best regular season record.

Tips for betting on MLB win totals

Projections are your friend

FanGraphs and PECOTA are just two of the numerous MLB win total projections freely available to fans.

While we would advise against putting all your faith in projection systems, it’s an important part of win total research which should inform your betting decisions.

Projections are based on different models, so you might find some different numbers depending on where you get the data from.

As accurate as projections are over a large sample, they can swing and miss on an individual line. There are going to be times when you disagree with the projections, too. And that’s absolutely fine.

Identify predictive statistics

Some statistics are great for telling us what happened last season. Others are a more reliable indicator what is likely to happen in the coming year.

For instance, a player having a high batting average doesn’t mean they will have a high average next season. Their expected batting average is a better indicator.

These can be scaled up for teams – xwOBA allowed and conceded are two excellent predictive statistics all bettors should familiarize themselves with when betting on win totals.

Did their ace’s strikeout rate plummet? Was their best hitter struggling to lift the ball? These are the kind of trends bettors should be looking out for that can help to predict future performance.

Keep up to date with the latest news

The vast majority of MLB win total bets are placed during the offseason. Bettors need to keep up to date with all the latest reporting relating to free agency and trades.

A big free agent signing can lead to a team’s win total rising. This might be a good time to fade the team and bet the under if you feel like the market has overreacted.

Perhaps a front office makes a surprising rebuilding trade. Reacting quickly to the news could allow you to take the under before their line moves.

Injuries can have a massive impact, too. A pitcher needing Tommy John surgery is going to swing the win total markets. There’s a lot to consider when betting on win totals, so make sure you have your finger on the pulse.

Investigate win total trends

Certain teams have a knack for hitting their over. Others are renowned for underachieving. The St. Louis Cardinals, for example, had one season below .500 between 2000 and 2023.

Betting the Cards for 80+ wins was one of the safest bets in sport. They hit their win total over more often than not during that period, too.

At the other end of the scale, some franchises are consistently overestimated by the sportsbooks. This can work in your favour when looking at the lines. Previous win-total outcomes are not the foundation of your betting decisions, but it can help to make a case one way or the other.