*All odds are from DraftKings Jan 12, 2026

For Midwestern golfers like myself, the PGA Tour’s January return has always felt like proof of life. Palm trees, sunshine, and a glimpse of ocean vistas give hope that somewhere, someone is playing golf. Traditionally, that season opener belonged to Kapalua. This year, circumstances shifted, with The Sentry shelved due to water rights and conditioning issues at the Plantation Course. From January 15-18, the 2026 PGA Tour season officially begins at the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, starting with the Pro-Am on January 15.

Defending champion Nick Taylor returns, and while he is not an early betting favorite, he could be a fantastic long-odds play. Taylor has finished in the Top 10 here in each of the last three years and currently sits at +4000 on DraftKings. Notably absent are last year’s top earner Scottie Scheffler, who took home $27.6M in 2025, and FedEx Cup winner Tommy Fleetwood, which opens the door for a wide range of new winners. The Sony is not just another tournament this weekend. It represents a fresh slate and reset button, offering an early opportunity to climb the leaderboard and earn FedEx Cup points for those who make the trip.

Those arriving at Waialae this week include Major champions and familiar names ready to start 2026: Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, Brian Harman, and reigning U.S. Open champion J.J. Spaun, who also finished T3 at the Sony in 2025. Ryder Cup teammates Ben Griffin and Robert MacIntyre are also in the mix. Current favorites are Russell Henley at +1100, followed by Ben Griffin and Hideki Matsuyama at +1700, and Spaun at +1800 per DraftKings as of January 12, 2026.

Course Breakdown: What Waialae Demands

At just over 7,000 yards, Waialae may be short by Tour standards, but the par-70 layout means every shot counts. This is a course that demands precision off the tee and punishes impatience on small, firm greens. Iron play will separate the leaders from the cut, especially if coastal breezes turn into Pacific winds that transform sure birdies into scrambles for par.

Players Who Fit This Course

Henley is the current favorite because of his reputation for accuracy and disciplined play. He sits fourth in strokes gained, 11th in scoring average, and 12th in driving accuracy. Matsuyama’s iron play makes him a threat at Waialae, ranking fifth in approach shots over 200 yards and 10th in scrambling when shots get away. If his putter cooperates, look for him near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. Spaun’s tenacious style, combined with his strong showing here last year, keeps him firmly in the mix.

Best Bets for This Book

Henley as an outright winner at +1100 offers early value, with Taylor at +4000 as an appealing long shot. For Top 10 plays, Taylor (+340), Matsuyama (+185), and Spaun (+180) headline the card, with MacIntyre (+200) and Bradley (+210) as secondary value options.

Survivor / One and Done for the Sony

With the purse at just $9.1M, Henley is likely the safest option, having made the cut 72.8 percent of the time in his 15-year career and finishing T10 at last year’s Sony. Taylor remains a personal favorite, with his consistent results on this course highlighting his ability to thrive here. I would save Matsuyama for a future event with a larger purse, though his 2021–22 win at Waialae still makes him a viable option.

Early Storylines to Watch

So what are we really watching for this season beyond Hawaii’s paradise greens? The Tour’s 2026 calendar delivers the tradition we love along with new edges that will shape the year. After Sony and the California swing, from The American Express to the Farmers Insurance Open and the always entertaining WM Phoenix Open, the leaderboard will already be hinting at this season’s top earners. As we move toward The Players Championship and then The Masters at Augusta National, the questions begin to surface.

Will defending champion Rory McIlroy compete in the United States after all? He is expected to defend his Green Jacket in April, but will he limit his exposure to the crowds that rattled him at the Ryder Cup? Will Scottie Scheffler continue his reign when he begins his season at The American Express in California? Will Tommy Fleetwood start 2026 as strong as he finished 2025?

Stay tuned and hang with us all season as we break down every event with best bets, Survivor picks, storylines, and the full landscape of each tournament. And when the majors hit, we’ll bring you supersized coverage. Believe it or not, we are already just 85 days away from Augusta.

If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.