The first round of the College Football Playoff is in the books, and the Campus Card sits at 2-2 so far, barely scraping by with a push. Our Boca Raton Bowl pick cashed as Louisville edged Toledo, and our gut check came through with JMU losing by just 17 and covering the hefty +21.5 spread. On the flip side, the Alabama–Oklahoma matchup flew past the 40.5 under in a 34-24 Alabama win, and Texas A&M not only failed to cover but suffered the biggest upset of the week against Miami.

Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, we step into the quirky scheduling of the college postseason. This card features two playoff games and two bowl games, with one kicking off Saturday and the remaining playoff matchups not taking place until New Year’s Day. It makes for a stretched-out slate, but there are some strong opportunities on the board, ranging from a surprising underdog moneyline to a speculative gut check.

Let’s break it down and see how holiday college football could benefit the card.

Best Moneyline Bet

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+104) vs Oregon Ducks

The Red Raiders are the higher-seeded team coming off a bye, yet they enter as a slight underdog. Texas Tech boasts an aggressive, turnover-hungry defense that leads the nation in takeaways against FBS opponents. While the offense is more than capable, Oregon should not expect this to resemble its matchup with JMU.

This game will test Dante Moore’s composure under pressure. He has shown a tendency to force throws when trying to do too much, and this Texas Tech defense is built to capitalize on those mistakes. This won’t be easy, but it sets up as a game where Oregon falls behind early, Moore presses, and errors tilt the outcome in Texas Tech’s favor.

The Pick: Texas Tech ML (+104)

Best Spread Bet

Indiana (-6.5) vs Alabama

Fernando Mendoza is the Heisman winner, Indiana is the team to beat, and Alabama feels primed for a playoff letdown.

The Crimson Tide survived the first round by grinding out points against Oklahoma, aided by questionable quarterback play from John Mateer and a pivotal second-quarter pick-six. Those opportunities won’t be there against Mendoza.

Indiana enters this matchup fresh and with far more to prove than most realize. The Hoosiers were not expected to make the playoff when the season began, let alone secure the top seed. Head coach Curt Cignetti will be looking to send a message after losing in the CFP first round last season, and that motivation aligns well with covering this number.

Alabama deserves credit for getting this far, but this feels like the end of the road for the former dynasty.

The Pick: Indiana -6.5

Best Over/Under Bet

North Texas vs San Diego State (Under 53.5)

The New Mexico Bowl carries a surprisingly high total given the circumstances. While North Texas fielded one of the most explosive offenses this season, opt-outs and injuries have dramatically changed the outlook.

The Mean Green will be without head coach Eric Morris, who has departed for Oklahoma State, along with their starting running back Caleb Hawkins and a starting quarterback in Drew Mestemaker who appears headed for the transfer portal. There’s little reason to expect this offense to resemble what it was during the regular season.

San Diego State will also be without its starting quarterback, as Jayden Denegal has opted for surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. With neither team fielding its starting signal-caller, this total feels inflated.

The Pick: Under 53.5

Gut Check Bet

Texas Longhorns (-7.5) vs Michigan Wolverines

Michigan’s program has been in a downward spiral following the Sherrone Moore situation, and early bowl prep suggests opt-outs may exceed initial expectations.

The Wolverines are already set to miss Derrick Moore, Jaishawn Barham, and Giovanni El-Hadi, with indications that the absences may not stop there. That’s concerning against a Texas team that has steadily improved.

Texas will be without Anthony Hill Jr. as he prepares for the NFL Draft, but Arch Manning has taken a noticeable step forward late in the season. If Michigan’s defense is missing its top pass rusher and potentially more, the Longhorns could control this game in the Citrus Bowl. There are plenty of variables, but my gut likes the direction, and my wallet is backing it.

The Pick: Texas -7.5

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