The CFP Quarterfinals are over, it’s a new year, and yet the Campus Card keeps chugging along with another 2–2 week on the card. We got hit with a loss on one of the bigger upsets of the week, as our Red Raiders moneyline fizzled out alongside their comatose offense, while our North Texas Under crumbled thanks to some backups having the games of their lives.

Shifting to the good, both our spreads were a hit. Indiana made quick work of Alabama, covering the -6.5 before the first half was over. Meanwhile, the Longhorns capped off a strange year with a decisive victory against the Maize and Blue, winning 41-27 to easily cover the -7.5.

This week, we’re going to adjust our structure a little. With only two games on the docket, we’ll make our moneyline and spread picks for both games, along with a call on the current O/Us. Let’s see how the semifinals could shake out.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Oregon Ducks

Moneyline: Indiana (-194)
Spread: Oregon (+4.5)
O/U: Over 46.5

Oregon’s defensive performance against Texas Tech was beyond unexpected, and while Indiana is still the favorite, it has instilled some confidence in bettors to genuinely consider the viability of an Oregon upset.

While that’s entirely valid, from my standpoint, Indiana’s run should be taken at face value. With a moneyline sitting just under -200, there’s little reason to go against the expected champions.

Now, while I’ve got the Hoosiers winning and feel confident about that, a +4.5 Oregon hedge holds some serious value. A close game is definitely in the cards here, and like I said, an upset can’t be ruled out. If you want to maximize your chances with this game, an Indiana moneyline/Oregon spread hedge is the smartest way to play it while still aiming for multiple hits.

As for the O/U, the two best QBs in the nation are going head-to-head with a ton on the line. The ball is going to be aired out, and barring one of these defenses playing completely lights out, a fair amount of points should be scored. At minimum, this matchup reads like a 27-24 final, though it could easily climb into the low-to-mid 30s for both teams. While the O/U feels like the least valuable line in this matchup, if I’ve gotta go one way or the other, I’m taking the over.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Miami Hurricanes

Moneyline: Ole Miss (+142)
Spread: Ole Miss (+3.5)
O/U: Under 51.5

Beating Ohio State can really change the narrative of a team.

The Miami Hurricanes were seen as a last-second addition to the playoffs that potentially didn’t deserve a spot at all. Since then, they’ve taken down Texas A&M and Ohio State, and now they sit as the favorites in their semifinals game despite being the lower seed.

The Hurricanes’ defense has been unbelievable during this run, so there’s logic behind them being favored against the No. 6 Rebels. However, as impressive as Rueben Bain Jr. has been, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss has been just as fun to watch. The first-year D-I starter has led this team in a way few expected when he stepped in for the injured Austin Simmons.

My belief in Chambliss heavily informs the picks here. While Miami’s defense has been unreal, Chambliss did serious damage to a Georgia defense that was more complete as a unit. If Ole Miss can get going on offense, Carson Beck and the Miami offense won’t be equipped to keep up, and that’s the scenario I see playing out most often.

With that in mind, the Ole Miss moneyline/spread combo is the only route to go. If you’re looking for a hedge, taking the under is where you can even things out. If Miami is going to win this game, it’s likely going to be to the tune of a 20-10 type of finish. So while I’m doubling down on Ole Miss, I’m playing the under as the contingency bet. If you’re also inclined to back the Rebels, I’d suggest doing the same.

Gut Check Bet

Trinidad Chambliss Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+124)
AND
Trinidad Chambliss Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-114)

I’ve already waxed poetic about Chambliss, but this gut check bet takes more than just his season into account.

The Rebels will be fighting for yards all game against a tough Miami defense, and Chambliss will be the catalyst for nearly all of them. The most effective passer and rusher on the team, the ball will constantly be in his hands.

The X-factor here is the Miami front seven. Chambliss will look to move out of the pocket and find space, but this pass rush and linebacker corps will prioritize contain. When that happens, Chambliss will throw, and he will throw often.

If you’re looking for a stat parlay, a Chambliss combo is the way to go. He’ll be pushing the ball regardless of the score, and he’s easily the most likely player in the semifinals to pile up stats.

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