As the NBA Finals shift to Indianapolis for Game 3, the series is tied at one game each. The Indiana Pacers are just three home wins away from their first championship in franchise history, while the Oklahoma City Thunder responded to a heartbreaking Game 1 loss with a dominant victory in Game 2.
Before the series began, the Thunder were as short as -700 to win the title. Even now, they remain heavy favorites at -540 on FanDuel. Over 5.5 total games opened at +120, reflecting high confidence from sportsbooks in Oklahoma City’s ability to finish the job quickly. After two games, that same bet has shifted to -196.
A 16-point margin in Game 2 does not tell the full story. The Thunder came out firing and took control early, holding a nearly 20-point lead by halftime. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again starred, while Jalen Williams played a smart, selective offensive game and Aaron Wiggins knocked down key threes.
Heading into Game 3, the Thunder are listed as 4.5-point favorites. For those who grabbed Pacers Game 1 and Thunder series winner at +500 before the Finals began, this scenario is playing out just right.
Daigneault’s Adjustments
Mark Daigneault’s decision to bench Isaiah Hartenstein in Game 1 raised eyebrows. The move to go small late in the game did not help matters. While Daigneault has had an excellent postseason overall, there have been questionable calls. He fouled too early in a one-possession game against the Nuggets, and he continues to use an unusually deep rotation as 11 players saw the floor in Game 1.
The frontcourt battle is critical in this series. By not testing the two-big lineup against Indiana, Daigneault gave Rick Carlisle a tactical edge in Game 1. That could change. With Hartenstein’s minutes down, his rebounds prop is listed at 7.5 for Game 3, and the over at even money could be a value play. Facing a fast-paced Indiana team at home, the Thunder may need to lean on extra possessions.
Trusting the Bench
Both coaches have trusted their depth so far. Rotational flexibility has been a key strength all season for Oklahoma City and Indiana. At some point, though, starters will need to shoulder more of the load.
A Game 3 loss might force one coach’s hand. For instance, Myles Turner has not played more than 28 minutes in a game so far. If Carlisle decides to extend his minutes, that could unlock some favorable player prop overs.
On the flip side, some bench players have struggled. Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe for the Thunder, and Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin for the Pacers, have all been outscored in their minutes. Fade their props unless there is a clear change in role. Mathurin still has breakout potential, but Toppin’s impact may already have peaked in Game 1. Look for someone like Thomas Bryant to possibly pick up more time.
Haliburton’s Challenge
Tyrese Haliburton delivered the game winner in Game 1, adding to his list of clutch moments this postseason. But across the two games, his overall production has been modest with just 31 points and 12 assists.
Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense has been suffocating. Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso are applying pressure and making it tough for Haliburton to dictate the pace. The Thunder are also aggressively closing on Pascal Siakam, taking away his comfort in isolation or short rolls.
Betting Outlook
Indiana needs more from Haliburton if they hope to win three of the next five games. Carlisle is still experimenting with rotations to find the right mix of creation, spacing, and defense. Oklahoma City looks ready to cover the 4.5-point spread in Game 3, and that can be paired with Haliburton under on assists and Hartenstein over on rebounds for a +443 parlay on FanDuel.
Jalen Williams has quietly tallied 11 total assists in the series, making him a fun longshot at +1600 to lead all players in assists. He has found success as a secondary creator, especially as Haliburton’s drive and kick game has stalled.
Looking at the big picture, it is still hard to see Indiana stretching this to a full seven-game series. If they win again, it will likely be by another narrow margin. Thunder in six is a strong correct score bet at plus 290.
Enjoyed this article? Follow us for more!
📸 Instagram: @EnterSandmanSports
📘 Facebook: @EnterSandmanSports
🐦 X (Twitter): @EnterSandmanSports
📺 YouTube: @EnterSandmanSports
🎵 TikTok: @EnterSandmanSports
📨 Join our newsletter for weekly updates and picks!
