how seriously should the lakers be taken as a title contender amid shortening odds?
The Los Angeles Lakers are as short as +950 to win the 2025 NBA title at Caesars. FanDuel has the longest price (as of March 12) at +1600. When looking at the Lakers betting odds, it’s clear that opinions vary on their chances.
The Purple and Gold are between +500 and +650 to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals in June.
These odds have held firm despite LeBron James’ groin injury. James is expected to miss at least one or two weeks. Given his age, it wouldn’t be a surprise if that stretched to three or four weeks. The Lakers are currently third in the west but only have a one-game lead over the fifth-placed Houston Rockets.
Los Angeles has lost consecutive games for the first time since Jan. 7. Dorian Finney-Smith missed Monday’s loss to the Brooklyn Nets, Rui Hachimura is sidelined for several games with a knee issue, and starting center Jaxson Hayes has missed the last two.
These injuries leave the Lakers massively undersized. Only three teams have a harder remaining schedule. Their elite defensive play (third since the turn of the year) was never likely to be sustainable.
Are the Lakers really capable of winning four consecutive playoff series? Or is this another case of hype, a large fanbase, and thousands of bets driving sportsbooks to shorten the Lakers’ title odds?
Threat of the Schedule
When the Lakers were rolling after the trade for Luka Dončić, finishing second or third seemed like a lock.LeBron’s injury, paired with consecutive losses, has changed the outlook drastically. The Lakers face the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets on the road before taking on the Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Nuggets, and Bucks in Los Angeles.
There’s a good chance all of these games will be without LeBron. The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies are right behind the Lakers. Houston has a much easier remaining schedule, while Memphis only faces one playoff-bound team in their next five games.
Home-court advantage won’t matter for the Lakers. Dončić and James have both consistently performed away from home in the playoffs. It will dictate their matchups, though, which is a much greater concern.
The four vs. five matchup puts them on course to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round, and potentially matchup with the surging Golden State Warriors in the first round.
Falling to sixth presents a further risk. The Denver Nuggets – the Lakers’ nemesis in recent years – could yet miss out on the two seed, particularly if Memphis goes on a run. A first-round matchup with Nikola Jokić is a worst-case scenario for JJ Redick.
Yes, the path to the Finals is brutal for any Western Conference team. It’s almost certain they will need to beat at least two of the Thunder, Nuggets, and Warriors. Making sure that’s two – instead of three – and they don’t have to face one of them in the first round is important for their postseason chances.
Redick’s Regular-Season Success
The decision to hire Redick was met with plenty of skepticism. This was LeBron’s former podcast partner, a media personality with no coaching experience in high school, college, or the NBA.
His first season has been a success. Craving defense effort from his players, Redick has somehow manufactured an elite defense with below-average personnel. Their strategy of leaving certain three-point shooters open has worked, although it leaves them vulnerable to variance in the playoffs.
Redick has been open-minded with his lineups, too. Since Anthony Davis departed in the Dončić trade and the Mark Williams deal was rescinded, Redick has been content using lineups with no traditional big, often having LeBron, Hachimura, or Finney-Smith as the nominal five.
While Redick has impressed throughout this regular season, the playoffs are a much sterner challenge for coaches. His body of work thus far suggests he will be more than fine in a postseason series, but there is an element of doubt there until he shows he can make necessary in-game and mid-series adjustments when facing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Steph Curry, Jokić, and others.
The Real Luka
The Lakers’ title-winning upside depends on Dončić and LeBron being top five players. We got a brief glimpse of this before LeBron’s injury, and it’s a terrifying prospect for the rest of the league.
Dončić is 27.8/9/8.9 over his last nine games, shooting 35.2% from three, and taking 9.2 free-throw attempts. There is more to come from the five-time All-NBA selection, particularly with his usage set to increase even further while LeBron is sidelined.
Dončić has taken the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals in the last three seasons. He’s forced front offices into drastic offseason decisions with his decimations of the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves.
There is a case to be made that Dončić is the single scariest playoff opponent in the NBA right now. LeBron, of course, remains a top-10 – or maybe even top-five – player in the league with the ability to be the best player on the court against any opponent.
This caliber of tandem has rarely, if ever, been seen before in NBA history. These aren’t just two great scorers; they are a pair of genius basketball minds.
Champion Upside
The Dončić and LeBron pairing is tantalizing. Austin Reaves is one of the better third options in the league. Finney-Smith has a +13.2 net rating in his minutes as a Laker.
There is a world where the Lakers find their way to the Finals, particularly if another team manages to knock out the Thunder or Nuggets. Such a scenario remains unlikely, however, with the Lakers’ lack of size likely to be a problem whether facing the world’s best player on Denver or Oklahoma City’s two-man frontcourt in Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren.
The Lakers defense isn’t going to remain this good. Redick has inspired them, but they don’t have the personnel to guard the league’s best perimeter players. Dončić and Reaves are both going to be targeted in long playoff series.
A 9.5% implied probability at Caesars is far too low. The Lakers surely are closer to a 5% chance, which might make the +1400 for the title at FanDuel worth considering. This depends on perfect health for LeBron, Dončić, and co., while getting reliable performances from their role players.
Yes, the Lakers are in a group of five or six teams who could win the title, but this team is ultimately too flawed to justify this price.
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