How to bet on NBA futures markets throughout the season

Most NBA futures bets are inevitably placed during the offseason. Sportsbooks have the majority of futures markets available throughout the campaign, however, so bettors shouldn’t write off futures markets once the season is underway, as there are countless opportunities to take advantage of price changes.

It’s important to always have an eye on NBA futures. Opportunities can arise at any point in the year, whether the market overreacts to an injury or underreacts to a sustained slump. Perhaps you’ve spotted a change in usage which makes a player a sudden Most Improved Player candidate.

Keep An Eye On Moving Lines

Each win and loss, each injury update, and each rotation tweak can impact the futures lines during the season. This means bettors need to be on their toes to react to the changes.

For instance, a player suffering a setback in injury recovery for the Golden State Warriors could reshape the Pacific Division odds. It might also see Golden State’s in-season win total reduce. This could even have an impact on individual awards, perhaps upping the usage of his teammates or less team success making it harder for those teammates to gain votes.

Tracking movement – or a lack thereof – is an important part of betting on NBA futures when the season is underway.

It gives you an insight into where other bettors are putting their money. At times, this can be a good reason to go with the masses, jumping on a price before it shortens further. At others, you might want to fade the public.

Trust Underlying Metrics

Look beyond a team’s win/loss record. Once a significant sample has developed (say 15 games), use net rating to evaluate the league’s best teams. A team can start 12-3, but if their net rating is close to zero, it’s likely they are going to regress in the coming weeks.

In other cases, you might notice a team has been unlucky, losing a disproportionate number of close games. Perhaps a team has been dropping games because of a particularly tough period in the schedule. There’s more to be researched than the win/loss record and traditional statistics.

Sites like Cleaning The Glass provide a deeper insight into a team’s efficiency from different areas of the floor and where they are taking and conceding shots from. This can be a good indicator of future success.

For instance, a team shooting 50% from three is not sustainable, and a team taking a bucketload of corners threes and free throws is more equipped for long-term success, even if they have been cold shooting the ball of late.

Using rate statistics is often more informative than counting stats.

Identify Key Playoff Factors

A lot of NBA futures bets are centred around the playoffs. Sure, we have win totals, division winners, make the playoffs, play-in, and seeding markets, but the NBA Finals are where a large share of NBA futures money is wagered.

It’s no secret playoff basketball is very different from the hoops we see in the regular season. There is a skill in identifying the teams likely to succeed in the playoffs – this is where money is there to be made from a betting perspective.

Defense, lineup flexibility, and clutch scoring are three key components in the postseason. One-way teams rarely have success in the playoffs, even if they manage to rack up 50+ regular season wins.

Consider Voter Tendencies

When it comes to individual awards, bettors can wager on MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year.

These awards are decided by a group of voters. Look into the patterns from previous seasons and take into account voter fatigue for MVP and DPOY. If a player has won multiple of the award, it often gets harder for them to win another, and voters can choose to ‘reward’ a player who has often been in contention but hasn’t got over the hump.

It’s also worth looking at what voters have valued in previous years, and what has swayed the narrative midway through a season. Statement performances on national TV can have a major say in the award races – it can be worth getting bets in before those games happen.

Think Long-Term

It’s easy to get swept up in the reactions to every winning streak, every slump, and every talk show hot take.

Sportsbooks – and the betting public – have a tendency to overreact. If you’re confident in a team as a force in the playoffs or even just to win their division, don’t be put off by four straight losses in November.

A star player getting criticized for a dud on Christmas Day doesn’t take them out of the MVP race. In fact, it will be long forgotten by the time votes are cast.

In-season futures wagers require big-picture thinking. This is an 82-game regular season, plus potentially four playoff rounds. Narratives fluctuate, the scrutiny is directed in different directions, and written-off teams/players have plenty of time to get their season back on track.

Quick decisions are sometimes necessary to benefit from favorable odds. Futures betting – by definition – is about the long-term, so anyone getting swept up in short-term storylines risks making poor value bets that chip away at your potential success.