March Madness Futures: Two to Back, Two to Avoid
Football season may be winding down, but March Madness is just around the corner, and that means it’s time to start thinking about futures bets! Today, I’m diving into my top two teams I think have what it takes to cut down the nets and two teams I’m steering clear of this season. Let’s get to it!
Two Teams We Like to Win It All
1. Alabama (+1300)
The Crimson Tide started the season at #1 in many polls, and they’ve held strong, now sitting at #4 with a 15-3 record. They’re an anomaly – a team that leads the nation in scoring at 90+ points per game but also sits near the bottom of NCAA D1 in defense, allowing nearly 79 points per game. That defensive stat is largely due to their high-tempo style of play, but it raises concerns for March Madness when a lockdown defense can make or break a game.
Coach Nate Oats seems to be addressing this issue. He recently benched star player Mark Sears over defensive lapses, proving that he’s serious about tightening things up. Alabama’s explosive offense and balanced scoring make them dangerous, and their resume backs it up: wins against Houston, Creighton, Texas A&M, and Kentucky, with losses only to Top 25 teams Ole Miss, Oregon, and Purdue. Playing in the competitive SEC will leave them battle-tested, and they’re on track for a #1 seed. At +1300, they’re a great value pick to go all the way.
2. Houston (+900)
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squad couldn’t be more different from Alabama. They lead the nation in defense, allowing just 55.6 points per game. While their offense isn’t as explosive, their balanced scoring approach ensures they aren’t overly reliant on one player. That versatility is key in March.
The Cougars are on a 12-game winning streak, and their only losses this season are to top teams like Auburn, Alabama, and a strong mid major in San Diego State. They’ve already proven they can grind out tough wins, like their double-overtime victory against Kansas this past weekend. With two recent Sweet 16 exits after Final Four and Elite Eight runs in prior years, this team feels poised to break through. At +900, Houston is another solid bet to win it all.
Two Teams We’re Avoiding
1. Duke (+475)
Yes, Duke’s season looks great on paper. They’ve only lost twice – both close games against Kansas and Kentucky – and they’ve logged a win against current #1 Auburn. Their 13-game winning streak and potential #1 seed are impressive, but their weak conference raises red flags.
The ACC isn’t what it used to be. Outside of Duke, only Louisville is ranked (#25), and that lack of competition could hurt them when they face tougher teams in March. Cooper Flagg is phenomenal, and while he could carry Duke for a few games, expecting him to shoulder the load for six straight games is asking too much. At +475, the odds just don’t justify the risk. We’ll pass on the Blue Devils this year, but props to Jon Scheyer for building something special in Durham – just not championship special this season.
2. Michigan State (+3000)
Sure, the +3000 odds are tempting, but I don’t see Michigan State as a legitimate contender. Tom Izzo is a legendary coach, with eight Final Four appearances and 26 straight NCAA Tournament berths, but he’s only won one championship – and that was over two decades ago in 2000.
The Spartans are riding a 12-game winning streak, but their resume lacks impressive wins. Losses to Kansas and Memphis are respectable, but who’s their best win against? Illinois? North Carolina? They rank unremarkably in both offense and defense, and their leading scorer averages just 13.1 points per game. That lack of a go-to star will be a problem in clutch moments. Like Duke, Michigan State feels like a team benefiting from a weaker conference and piling up wins without being battle-tested. I respect Izzo, but I’m not betting on the Spartans this postseason.
