Knowing the mid-majors is a huge part of betting success in college basketball. The books simply don’t spend the same amount of time and energy on lower-level conferences as they do the SEC or Big 12, and that creates value for bettors willing to do the work.
The average fan doesn’t know where most of these teams are located. But they’ve been making money all season for bettors who do. Here are some of the best against-the-spread plays from outside the Power 5.
Hofstra Pride
(10-4 SU, 11-1 ATS)
What makes this run especially impressive is that Hofstra didn’t play a Division I opponent at home until Dec. 21. Yet the Pride have still covered 10 straight, including outright wins at ACC foes Syracuse and Pittsburgh.
Hofstra is one of the more accurate three-point shooting teams in the country, ranking 39th nationally in adjusted three-point percentage. They’re viewed as one of the top teams in the CAA, meaning they’ll be laying points more often from here on out. If they handle that role, the shooting alone puts them in position to keep cashing tickets.
William & Mary Tribe
(10-3 SU, 10-1 ATS)
Famously, the Tribe have never made the NCAA Tournament, but this team has a chance to change that narrative. Where Hofstra wins with offense, William & Mary wins with defense.
The Tribe allow three-point attempts, but they’re rarely clean looks. Most come as second or third options late in possessions, which leads to misses and defensive rebounds. When teams get hot, the Tribe can be vulnerable, as Richmond and George Washington showed. But for the most part, this defense has been reliable and profitable.
UC San Diego Tritons
(11-2 SU, 8-2-1 ATS)
Remember them? The Tritons went 30-5 last season and are right back at it after nearly upsetting Michigan in last year’s NCAA Tournament. UC San Diego’s only losses have come against Nevada and San Diego, and they’re 3-0-1 ATS as an underdog.
The Tritons shoot the ball extremely well from deep and also do a good job getting touches in the low post. That balance plays well in conference action, though free-throw shooting remains the one concern to monitor in tighter spreads.
Idaho State Bengals
(7-6 SU, 8-2 ATS)
For years, Idaho State tried to zig while the rest of the Big Sky zagged by building inside instead of embracing perimeter shooting. That’s no longer the case, and the results have followed.
The Bengals rank 40th nationally in adjusted three-point shooting, and Reed Gym has become a shooter’s paradise. More importantly, it hasn’t worked both ways. Idaho State ranks 18th nationally in adjusted three-point defense, a massive edge in a conference built around the long ball.
Illinois State Redbirds
(11-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Like most teams on this list, Illinois State shoots it well from outside, but they also get it done inside the arc, ranking 36th nationally in adjusted field goal percentage.
Shot volume has been an occasional issue, but when the Redbirds take care of the ball, they get quality looks. Defensively, they’ve been even more impressive, holding seven of their last nine opponents to 69 points or fewer. With Missouri Valley play coming, there will be plenty of nice betting opportunities here.
Tarleton State Texans
(10-4 SU, 9-1 ATS)
Billy Gillispie has always done his best work away from the spotlight. Tarleton State suits him perfectly, and the Texans have made a living denying opponents good shots.
Tarleton State ranks third nationally in forcing possessions to end without a shot. They pressure the ball, force mistakes, and push teams out of their comfort zones. Since their second game of the season against LSU, the Texans have covered eight straight games against Division I opponents. As long as the defense holds, this is one of the sneakier ATS teams in the country.
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