Forty games into the MLB season is an ideal time to reflect. It’s an awkward sample size where misleading records mix with meaningful trends. Teams have rebounded from rough starts to make the playoffs, and others have led their divisions early only to fall apart by the trade deadline.
Here’s a look at some surprising early trends across the league, and whether they’re real or just a small-sample mirage.
Giants as Contenders: Fake
After opening the season 13–5, the Giants have gone 11–13 since and are trending back toward the .500 mark. That’s where most projections had them heading into the season. Despite a 24–18 record, FanDuel lists them at just +136 to make the playoffs.
Since May 1, San Francisco’s lineup has produced a 92 wRC+, with minimal contributions from LaMonte Wade Jr., Patrick Bailey, Wilmer Flores, and Luis Matos. Flores’ early RBI output has cooled, and Willy Adames, who signed the largest contract in team history, has underwhelmed both at the plate and in the field.
The Giants rank 25th in xwOBA and are relying heavily on Logan Webb, who is off to a Cy Young-caliber start. The rest of the rotation has been mediocre. At -140 to miss the playoffs on DraftKings, and with an under-86.5 win total on FanDuel, there’s value in fading them.
With top prospects Bryce Eldridge and Marco Luciano not yet ready for the majors, San Francisco may need to trade for a proven bat to stay in the mix. First-year front office leader Buster Posey has some tough decisions coming soon.
Twins Fighting Back: Real
The Twins looked lost after a 13–20 start, but an eight-game winning streak has flipped the script. The turnaround matches the quality of the roster, and May has brought elite pitching and a more competent offense.
Minnesota’s rotation ranks fifth in ERA this month, and the bullpen is eighth. Royce Lewis is back but still getting his timing down. In the meantime, Byron Buxton, Harrison Bader, and Matt Wallner have carried the offense.
At the time of writing, the Twins trail the division by 5.5 games but are firmly in the wild card mix. Their talent level is easily strong enough to chase down Detroit, and the 83.5 win total line feels too low. The over is worth playing, and BetMGM’s +800 on Minnesota to win the division is an appealing long shot. With no true juggernaut in the AL Central, a few hot weeks could quickly change the standings.
Orioles Out of It: Real
Baltimore opened the year with the second-shortest World Series odds in the American League. Now they’re eight games back in the division and listed at +5500 to win the World Series on FanDuel.
The Orioles’ rotation ERA is better than only the Marlins and Rockies. The bullpen is in the bottom five, and the offense has managed just a 96 wRC+. The pitching was always the weak spot, but the bats have underachieved too. Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler O’Neill, and Jordan Westburg have all struggled to produce.
Baltimore needed its offense to be elite to overcome the pitching gap. That hasn’t happened. FanDuel’s +110 on them to win 80 or more games looks like poor value. At 15–24, the Orioles already face an uphill battle to finish .500, and there’s little reason to believe a turnaround is coming.
Contenders in Texas: Fake
The Astros and Rangers both find themselves at or below .500 and are currently listed at nearly even money to miss the playoffs. Despite their reputations, both teams have been average or worse in most key metrics.
Houston’s bullpen is still solid, and Texas’ rotation is among the league’s best, but the offenses are not clicking. The Mariners are now favored to win the AL West at +140 on DraftKings, while even the Athletics have a slightly better record than Houston and Texas at this stage.
Veteran hitters are struggling. Jose Altuve has the worst xwOBA of his career. Marcus Semien has been unlucky with balls in play but his underlying stats remain underwhelming. Yordan Alvarez is on the injured list with a .646 OPS. Other key bats like Yainier Diaz, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Adolis Garcia have been below league average in xwOBA.
Some of these players might turn it around, but others are showing signs of decline. Semien had a .699 OPS in 2024, and both Altuve and Walker have seen their barrel rates fall significantly. On the mound, Houston’s injuries have created a razor-thin margin for error, and Texas is unlikely to get full seasons from Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, or Tyler Mahle.
Patrick Corbin has been a pleasant surprise for Texas, but it’s hard to see him sustaining his current level of success. Both teams have major question marks. At current prices, betting them to miss the playoffs and taking the under on their win totals looks like the right move.
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