It’s been another slow winter across Major League Baseball. Some big-name free agents have signed, including Pete Alonso and Dylan Cease, but various other marquee players remain on the market, namely Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. 

As has been the case in most recent winters, there appears to be a chasm between what agents are demanding and what front offices are willing to pay. Changes in the ways players are evaluated has altered how free agency plays out and has made life trickier for agents trying to secure long-term deals.

Here are seven of the most overrated free agents still on the board.

Luis Arráez

Worth 2.2 bWAR and with a 103 OPS+ over the last two seasons, Luis Arráez’s market should be limited. Sure, he’s led the NL in hits in each of those campaigns, but he doesn’t provide value on defense or as a baserunner.

There’s very little power. He was worth -9 outs above average last season, meaning he really belongs as a DH. Teams should be looking for a player with more offensive upside at that spot or using it to rotate their everyday position players.

Even with the widespread move away from batting average, Arráez’s skillset is still valued higher than it should be.

Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger reportedly turned down a deal which would have made him the fifth-highest-paid outfielder in baseball. He is after a seven-year deal. 

This all feels like a familiar story. Bellinger has sought big-money free-agent deals in the past and never got the long-term deal he craves.

Much of that is because he’s a very difficult player to project. After being voted an MVP, he became one of MLB’s worst hitters and has fluctuated in three years as a Cub and Yankee, posting a 125 OPS+ over that period.

The defense is great, yet he’s not been as impactful on the bases, and was flattered by 29 home runs last season. He’s more of a contact hitter with decent pop at this stage. 

Zac Gallen

Zac Gallen is coming off the worst season of his career. The 2024 and 2025 campaigns have seen his stuff+ crater. You have to go back to 2022 for the last time his underlying numbers painted the picture of an All-Star level arm. 

Add in the qualifying offer and Gallen becomes a free agent to avoid. Giving up a high barrel rate and only generating a middling groundball rate isn’t a good formula with his mediocre strikeout numbers.

Anything more than a two-year deal would be a major risk. Gallen re-signing with the Diamondbacks looks increasingly likely. 

Zack Littell

Giving Zack Littell a multi-year deal would be a mistake. He’s got a 4.42 FIP over the last two seasons and doesn’t have the sort of strikeout rate to make us believe in him past the short-term.

His stuff has declined year-on-year, per FanGraphs. A 93 pitching+ in 2025 should be a warning sign for potential suitors. Steamer also projects a groundball rate below 40% which simply doesn’t equate to being even a league average pitcher.

Maybe a team can take Littell as a serviceable backend guy. If not, a rebuilding team should look to get him on a one-year deal to eat innings. 

J.T. Realmuto

It’s no surprise a catcher entering his age-35 season is declining. The trademark signs of aging, such as bat speed, blocking, and sprint speed decreases, are all there for Realmuto over the last couple of years.

There were major offensive drops from 2024 to 2025, with his xwOBA cratering as a result of across-the-board dips. Realmuto’s 89 OPS+ in 2025 might be who he is going forward. 

What does that mean for free agency? Well, veteran catchers are usually looking at one-year deals at this point. Anything more would be an overpay. 

Rhys Hoskins

A career 120 OPS+ might be enough to get some front offices excited. Rhys Hoskins only had a 102 OPS+ across his two seasons as a Brewer, however, and hasn’t been the same player since he tore his ACL in 2023.

It’s half a decade since Hoskins has been an elite hitter. He’s not regained the sky-high walk rate that made him such a difficult hitter to pitch to in the 2019-20 period. 

Never a good defender, Hoskins should split his time at DH. Contenders should be hesitant to commit too many DH at-bats to a player with his recent record. 

Eugenio Suárez

Fresh off hitting 49 home runs, Eugenio Suárez is likely looking for one last big payday. The veteran infielder is heading into his age-34 season, though, and posted a 94 OPS+ across 53 games as a Seattle Mariner. 

Already a low-contact guy, Suárez’s power came at a cost in 2025. He struck out even more and walked much less. The defense cratered, too. Nothing from his underlying numbers suggests that last year was anything more than a fluke.

The Reds and Angels have been suggested as suitors for Suárez. Both front offices should remind themselves they are more likely to get the 109 wRC+ Suárez posted between 2020 and 2024 rather than the 125 mark he registered in 2025.

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