Like other awards, the NBA Defensive Player of the Year race has been heavily impacted by injuries. The 65-game minimum looms large. Preseason favorite Victor Wembanyama is walking a tightrope to be eligible for the award, and others are at threat of being ruled out.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are once again the league’s best defense by a sizable margin. Chet Holmgren is the betting favorite, but OKC has multiple DPOY candidates, including Cason Wallace and Luguentz Dort.

Owners of the second-best defensive rating in the Association, the Detroit Pistons aren’t represented in the players with the seven shortest odds for DPOY. Tied for the fourth-best defense, the Phoenix Suns’ strongest representative is priced at +50000.

1. Victor Wembanyama

Sportsbooks don’t price Wembanyama as the favorite, as of Jan. 13. That’s because he’s missed 14 games already, so would need an outlier run of health to qualify for this award (and All-NBA). 

Even with his minutes being carefully monitored and plenty of games coming off the bench, Wembanyama is leading the league by a clear margin in stocks per game. San Antonio is third in defensive rating, and their 106 defensive rating in Wemby’s minutes is only a shade behind OKC’s league-leading mark.

If we’re honest, it’s unlikely Wembanyama qualifies for this award. This ranking, though, is about how a ballot would look if the season ended today. Wembanyama has clearly been the league’s most impactful defender. 

2. Chet Holmgren 

How valuable is being the best defender on the best defense? Holmgren is exactly that, albeit with lower block numbers than his previous two seasons. An already spectacular Thunder defense is even better in Holmgren’s minutes.

The question with Holmgren is how much he benefits from the skillset of Wallace, Dort, and the rest of Oklahoma City’s supporting cast on the defensive end. There are no weak links on the perimeter, making it that bit easier for Holmgren to protect the rim. 

If Wembanyama is ineligible, Holmgren will take some beating. It shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion, though, as other teams are far more dependent on their DPOY candidates on a night-to-night basis. 

3. Rudy Gobert

Don’t worry, you’re not alone if you thought Rudy Gobert’s DPOY-winning days were behind him. Gobert’s decline has been insignificant, as he is leading the NBA in estimated defensive plus-minus and ranks fifth in defensive win shares.

When it comes to importance to their team, Gobert has a legitimate case to rival Wembanyama. Minnesota’s defense craters when Gobert is off the floor, with a 13.1-point swing in defensive rating between his minutes and when he sits.

It’s not always fair to mark a player up for the weaknesses of their teammates. It does, however, illustrate how much Gobert has to do when he’s on the floor. Minnesota has some great defensive players, but they wouldn’t be an elite defensive team if Gobert was replaced with a league average defender.

4. Ausar Thompson

Detroit is a fair distance behind the Thunder, but they equally have a significant lead over the Spurs. The Pistons are clearly the NBA’s second-best defense, though they don’t have a clear DPOY candidate.

Isaiah Stewart is having a brilliant year. Jalen Duren is an asset on the defensive end. Ausar Thompson, with his mix of size and athleticism, is an eye-catching defensive player whether he’s guarding on the perimeter or providing weak-side rim protection.

It’s curious that the Pistons are better when Thompson’s off the floor. If that trend maintains throughout the season, it’ll be a factor for voters. For now, let’s put that down to noise, and give the Thompson forward fourth place in this month’s ranking. 

5. Bam Adebayo

There’s an element of always the bridesmaid with Bam Adebayo. He’s been selected to All-Defensive teams on five occasions. He’s earned DPOY votes in each of the last six seasons, with last season’s 10th place representing the first time he’s finished outside the top five during that period.

Miami is tied for the fourth-best defensive rating. Adebayo’s stock numbers are worse than in previous years, yet the Heat are 1.2 points better per 100 defensive possessions when he’s on the floor.

Do we think Adebayo will win the award this year? No, it would take a raft of injuries to other contenders. But he’s undeniably still one of the best defenders in the NBA and the Heat wouldn’t be a top 10 defense, let alone fourth, without him. 

 

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