What promised to be another enthralling MVP race is at risk of meandering towards a formality. Injuries have effectively ruled Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo out of contention, with the former sidelined for several weeks and the latter already missing 16 games. 

Luka Dončić has missed double-digit games for the Lakers. Still officially in contention, he doesn’t have much margin for error to reach the 65-game mark.

This criterion has created more uncertainty when ranking the MVP candidates. In theory, Jokić, Antetokounmpo, and Dončić are still in the mix. As with our previous rankings, this is being constructed as if the season ended today and all three were eligible. 

Games missed is a factor, of course, which results in Antetokounmpo missing out.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The Thunder’s recent hiccups haven’t done too much to undermine Gilgeous-Alexander’s candidacy. The overwhelming favorite as of Jan. 9, he’s second in scoring and has the best true shooting percentage among all starting guards.

OKC has lost seven games this season, taking them off their historic pace. However, Gilgeous-Alexander has been as relentless as ever, and his importance to the Thunder has only been highlighted further. OKC’s offensive rating is 12.3 points lower when he’s off the floor.

If he meets the games played threshold, it feels almost guaranteed Gilgeous-Alexander will make it back-to-back MVP awards. Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Steph Curry, and Steve Nash are the only other guards to win consecutive MVPs. 

2. Nikola Jokić 

Jokić has only missed a handful of games so far. If the season wrapped up today, it would be very close between the Serbian and Gilgeous-Alexander for this award. With the time he’s set to miss, there’s a good chance he will tumble down these rankings when our next ladder is published in February.

The numbers are staggering. He’s scoring a shade under 30 points per game, while leading the NBA in rebounding and assisting. His true shooting percentage is the best in the NBA, and his three closest rivals are players who almost exclusively take shots at the rim.

It has actually been one of the Joker’s best seasons yet in a career that is beginning to threaten the 10 greatest players in NBA history. If he miraculously qualifies for the award, there will be an interesting conversation to be had.

3. Cade Cunningham

Detroit is four games clear in the loss column at the top of the Eastern Conference. Cade Cunningham is one of the best rebounding guards in the Association and will be on course to win the assist title if/when Jokić fails to qualify.

The Pistons are eighth overall in offense, but they crater when Cunningham is off the floor. He’s the engine that makes this team function, carrying a massive workload as a scorer and creator. 

Despite doing everything in halfcourt sets offensively, he still uses his size and smarts to be an impactful defensive player. Not many players manage to have such a high usage rate and still play passable defense, and Cunningham is averaging 2.3 stocks per game. 

4. Luka Dončić

The Lakers have gone 8-8 since the end of November. Leading the league in scoring and free throw attempts, Dončić is posting MVP-esque numbers and had a 38-point triple-double against the Spurs on Wednesday.

It took the Slovenian to six consecutive games with 30 or more points. Defensive effort, however, is once again a major question. The Lakers are actually a better defensive team with Dončić off the floor. His offensive production will always keep him in the MVP conversation, but his defense remains the easiest part of his game for critics to point to.

The Lakers have to be within a few wins of the Thunder for Dončić to win this award. It’s not completely out of the question, but it’s a big ask with how Los Angeles has been playing recently.

5. Jaylen Brown

The Celtics are perhaps the league’s greatest surprise package. Joe Mazzulla’s coaching, the unearthing of young talents, and unrelenting competitiveness are all key factors, as is Jaylen Brown’s growth from overqualified Robin to a true offensive engine.

Brown is running more pick-and-roll than before. He’s at a career-high 4.9 assists per game, which is by far his best assist rate, and has tied his previous career-high rebounding rate. Boston needed Brown to pick up the slack from Jayson Tatum’s absence and he’s done just that.

Reliable in late-game situations, Brown has made marked progress as an initiator, tightening his handle and improving his decision-making. He could break into the top three if Boston continues to rack up wins.

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