NCAAF Over-Unders
Football season is fast approaching and before we know it we’ll be sweating over our weekly bets. But before we get into that chaos, let’s look into the future and place our best season-long bets. Today, I’ll share my top 5 O/U bets for college football.
College Football O/U Best Bets (All lines and odds are taken from DraftKings)
Colorado Under 5.5 Wins (+115)
I am just not buying into the Colorado hype. While Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are undeniably electrifying talents who will provide plenty of highlights for Buffs fans, there are concerns about the culture Deion Sanders is cultivating in Boulder. The high turnover and reliance on transfers raise questions about long-term stability and team cohesion.
Last season’s jump from 1-11 to 4-8 was a great story, but expecting a significant leap this year seems overly optimistic. Despite bringing in new players, the defense still appears vulnerable, and the schedule is anything but easy. A slow start is possible, with a tough stretch ahead that could leave them at 2-5. And with their final three games against Utah, at Kansas, and Oklahoma State, it’s hard to see them pushing past five wins this season.
Miami (OH) Over 8 Wins (+100)
While I’d prefer the number at 7.5, I’m still confident in the Redhawks this season. Coming off an impressive 11-win campaign, Miami returns six starters on both sides of the ball, setting them up to field one of the elite defenses in the MAC. Senior quarterback Brett Gabbert, arguably the best in the conference, is back to lead this scrappy team, and his experience should be a significant asset as they aim for another MAC title game appearance.
The schedule is indeed tougher this year, with challenging early games at Northwestern, home against Cincinnati, and at Notre Dame. However, I believe Miami has the potential to win at least one of those matchups, if not two. Head coach Chuck Martin has consistently flown under the radar, but his track record is impressive—he’s guided Miami to bowl eligibility in 7 of the last 8 seasons, earning his place in the “Cradle of Coaches.”
Given their experience, talent, and coaching, I see 9-3 as the floor for the Redhawks in the regular season, with a strong chance to exceed that mark.
Rutgers Over 6 Wins (-140)
I typically hesitate when it comes to betting on Rutgers, but I really like this bet. While there’s a bit more juice at 6 compared to 6.5, having that cushion makes it all the more appealing. I believe Rutgers can reach 7 or even 8 wins, but it’s nice to have a safety net.
Greg Schiano’s track record speaks for itself, and the addition of quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis from Minnesota should bring a much-needed sense of calm and confidence to the offense. However, the real reason I’m bullish on this pick is their schedule. Rutgers avoids the heavyweights—no Ohio State, no Michigan, no Oregon, and no Penn State. They also dodge Iowa’s notoriously tough defense. On top of that, they kick off the season with very winnable games against Howard and Akron.
The depth and experience on defense are strengths for Rutgers, and if they can finish strong in their final three games—at Maryland, home against Illinois, and at Michigan State—I see this as a great bet. The path to success is clear, and this feels like a stone-cold lock.
Notre Dame Under 10 Wins (-105)
I was genuinely shocked when I saw Notre Dame’s over/under set at 11 wins. Let me be clear—there’s virtually no way the Irish hit that mark, even when including the postseason. They don’t have a conference championship game to boost their win total, and while a bowl game victory is possible, it won’t be enough to get them to 11 wins.
First and foremost, I’m not entirely sold on Marcus Freeman as head coach, nor on Riley Leonard at quarterback. Yes, Notre Dame went 10-3 last season and brings back a stout defense, but Freeman’s track record in crunch time is shaky. They lost their three toughest games last year—against Ohio State, Louisville, and Clemson—despite handling USC. That inconsistency raises concerns about their ability to perform when it matters most.
As for Riley Leonard, the buzz around him feels eerily similar to last year’s hype about Sam Hartman, who ultimately faltered when the stakes were high. I anticipate similar results from Leonard this season.
The schedule isn’t impossible, but it’s far from easy. They open at Texas A&M, face a tricky matchup against Louisville, host a strong Florida State team, and finish the season on the road at USC. Even their game against Miami (OH) could be tighter than expected.
All said and done, Notre Dame’s path to 11 wins seems incredibly unrealistic. Taking the under 10 wins here is the smart play, and you’ll sleep easy knowing you made the right call
Penn State Over 10.5 Wins (+140)
This pick makes me the most nervous out of the bunch, but I still like it—especially with the positive juice. This is arguably the best team James Franklin has had during his tenure at Penn State, and the schedule aligns perfectly for them to finally break through to the next level. Drew Allar is a big part of that optimism; his comfort and confidence visibly grew throughout last season, and he’s poised to take a big step forward this year.
The running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen could be the best in the nation, providing a dynamic and potent ground game. While the offensive line raises some concerns, the defense, particularly the D-line, is expected to be outstanding and capable of keeping them in every game.
The season opener at West Virginia might be a bit tricky, but I believe Penn State will handle it and head into their most challenging stretch at 5-0. That stretch includes road games at USC and Wisconsin, a bye week, and a home game against Ohio State. While this sequence is daunting, the Nittany Lions avoid Michigan and Oregon, which significantly boosts their chances of making a run.
All things considered, Penn State could surprise everyone and emerge as Big Ten champions this year. It’s a bold call, but with the talent on this roster and the way the schedule is set up, it’s far from out of reach.
