The holiday break is the perfect time to take stock of the NHL, not just by looking at the standings, but by understanding why teams are where they are.

Some teams deserve their record. Others do not. A low shooting percentage paired with strong chance creation usually corrects itself over time. A low shooting percentage without quality looks is simply a bad offense. Knowing the difference is where bettors can find value.

These teams may be struggling to stack wins right now, but the underlying numbers suggest improvement is coming. As that correction happens, the betting market will be slow to adjust. That is where the opportunity lies heading into January and February.

New Jersey Devils

It’s hard to overstate just how unlucky the Devils have been. The Devils have scored just 61 goals, while advanced metrics say they should have scored 81. New Jersey has a low shooting percentage, ranking dead last in the NHL at 7.31%.

That’s going to get better for a couple reasons. First, New Jersey converts roughly once out of every five chances on the power play. That means the goals aren’t coming in five-on-five situations, which is going to change with time. A team that can score on the power play and gets good shots on goal is going to score in five-on-five situations eventually.

Second, the Devils are about to see the schedule get much easier. New Jersey plays the third easiest schedule over the second half of the NHL season. Out of the West, the Devils still haven’t seen the likes of Calgary, Winnipeg or Nashville, yet they’ve already played Dallas and seen Colorado twice. Only San Jose and the New York Islanders face a weaker schedule than New Jersey.

Finally, the Devils do just fine on faceoffs. If New Jersey was routinely starting without the puck, that would be problematic. But the Devils win the draw just over 50% of the time. The goals are going to come.

Nashville Predators

New Jersey’s problems are with the offense. Nashville has been unlucky at both ends of the ice, and the numbers bear it out. Top goaltender Juuse Saros has a 2.92 GAA, which isn’t a bad number. But his save percentage is under .900, which isn’t good. This disparity suggests that the fault doesn’t entirely lie with Nashville’s defense, but with a few bad bounces. 

Per advanced metrics, the Predators are 18 goals worse than their expected goal differential. They rank 10th overall in shots per game, but 23rd in shooting percentage and 24th in goals. Thus, Nashville is getting good looks, but whether it’s from running into good goaltending or bad luck, the Preds aren’t converting those chances.

Their xG is also slightly better than their total number of goals allowed. Like the Devils, the Predators also face a favorable schedule in the second half. Nashville still gets eight games total against San Jose, Chicago and St. Louis, so there will be plenty of spots where the Predators show they’re better than their record. Be ready to get value on them now before those games arrive.

Ottawa Senators

There’s a reason that Ottawa has played 21 overs in 36 games: it’s because the Senators can’t stop the power play worth anything. Ottawa’s penalty kill is a miserable 71.7%, ranked ahead of only Seattle. They’ve had to play a quarter of the season without goaltender Linus Ullmark, and the defense isn’t good enough to stop power play chances when he’s not between the pipes.

Like the Devils and the Predators, luck has not been on the Senators’ side. Ottawa has given up 10 more power-play goals than expected, and those have been some pretty crucial goals. Ten of the Senators’ past 12 losses have come by a single goal, and Ottawa allowed a power play marker in five of them. An extra five points from either winning the game in regulation or getting the game to overtime would have the Senators sitting one point back of first-place Detroit, with two games in hand on the Red Wings.

So if Ullmark stays healthy and things even out on the penalty kill, the Senators certainly have the potential to offer wins on both the moneyline and the total. If you’re paying close attention, you’ll find plenty of value here.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Pacific Division is not good this year. Vegas is currently in a three-way tie with Anaheim and Edmonton for first place with 44 points. But the Golden Knights seem to have another gear they’ve not yet hit. Vegas has left 17 goals on the table, and most of those have come in five-on-five situations.

It’s tough to say a team has value when it’s leading its division. But Vegas has not played to its potential just yet. The Golden Knights are not cashing in on opportunities, but they are getting them. There’s too much talent on this roster for Vegas to allow good looks go awry. Sooner or later, they’re going to knock home some chances.

Vegas continues to generate chances in dangerous areas and has relied heavily on power-play scoring to stay afloat. That imbalance will not last. Teams with this level of talent eventually cash in at even strength.

The Golden Knights have not played their best hockey yet, and that is exactly why there is still value. When the finishing improves, the results will follow quickly.

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