Predicting the remainder of each nba first-round series
All eight of the first-round NBA playoff series have played two games. A few are heading for a short series with sweeps looking likely in three of the eight. Across the remaining five, it’s possible we get four or five heading to six or seven games if the key players remain healthy.
Teams have longer rests between games at this stage of the playoffs, potentially favoring veteran teams. The first round is often when inexperienced rosters are found out, as they struggle when the lights get brighter.
With every series at the same stage, it seemed like a good time to predict the remainder of each of the first-round series (all odds from FanDuel).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies: Thunder Sweep (-188)
This series lasting more than four games is priced at +152. The Oklahoma City Thunder handed the Memphis Grizzlies a historic drubbing in Game 1 and followed that up with another emphatic win in Game 2.
Memphis’ decision to fire Taylor Jenkins hasn’t paid dividends. They are completely overmatched in this series, as evidenced by facing the second-largest point differential after two games in NBA history.
OKC haven’t shown anything this season to indicate they will take their foot off the gas. Two more blowouts are on the way.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors: To Go Seven Games (+156)
The outcome of Jimmy Butler’s MRI on Thursday will have a significant impact on this series. If Butler suffered a fracture from his hard fall in Game 2, the Golden State Warriors suddenly become clear underdogs, even if he’s able to play through the pain.
It’s been a bruising first two games. That’s not going to change with how this series is being officiated.
The way the Houston Rockets struggled on offense in Game 1 suggests the Warriors can take this series deep, even with the injuries they pick up along the way. Houston can’t rely on Jalen Green getting red-hot every night, but their defense is going to keep them competitive.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 (+240)
The Los Angeles Lakers are 1-1 after two games despite shooting 30% from beyond the arc. The Minnesota Timberwolves have drained just under 39% of their three-point shots.
Getting a win in LA was crucial for Minnesota, but the way Luka Dončić went out Rudy Gobert repeatedly is a concern. The Timberwolves can use different looks with Naz Reid at the five, yet that asks even more of Julius Randle on the defensive end.
With some improvement in their outside shooting, the Lakers’ superior talent should shine through to secure a series win without needing a Game 7.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers: Clippers Win in Six (+250)
Kawhi Leonard looks like the player who carried the Toronto Raptors to the title six years ago. Ivica Zubac is perhaps the best answer to slowing down Nikola Jokić.
The Denver Nuggets have no idea what they’re going to get from Michael Porter Jr. If he has a quiet series, Denver needs Jamal Murray to go nuclear to stand a chance of progressing.
As expected before the series, the Nuggets just don’t seem to have enough reliable playoff performers. In contrast, their opponents have a core of four players and several other serviceable options. Look for the Clips to wrap this series up on their home floor in Game 6.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat: Cavs Sweep (-122)
The Cleveland Cavaliers followed a 21-point Game 1 win with a nine-point triumph in Game 2. A 27-win difference between the teams in the regular season has been apparent with the Miami Heat completely outclassed in the two games in Ohio.
Miami only went 4-11 straight-up as a home underdog in the regular season. Cleveland was 26-8 as a road favorite.
Like the Thunder and Grizz, this is destined to be a very quick series. Miami doesn’t belong in the playoffs.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic: Celtics Win 4-1 (+168)
This was never going to be a competitive series. The Boston Celtics comfortably winning Game 2 without Jayson Tatum raises significant questions about the Orlando Magic going forward. It’s time for the front office to make a move to improve an offense which was among the worst in the league during the second half of the regular season.
Boston has a tendency to sloppily drop games, though, as they did in the first two rounds of last season’s playoffs. A cold shooting night and less-than-focused defense could see the Magic snatch a game at home.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons: Over 6.5 Games (+152)
The Detroit Pistons took Game 2, easing some of the pressure off as the series returns to the Motor City. Little Caesars Arena will be bouncing for Games 3 and 4 after the Pistons ended the league’s longest drought without a playoff win.
Seemingly struggling with the playoff intensity in Game 1, Detroit stood up in Game 2, led by the brilliance of Cade Cunningham. They are surely going to take at least one of their home games, setting up a Game 5 at Madison Square Garden and a Game 6 back in Detroit.
It hasn’t been a particularly impressive start from the New York Knicks. The offense has been too focused on Jalen Brunson and the defense is always going to be vulnerable with Karl-Anthony Towns at the five. This series looks like it will go all the way.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Under 5.5 Total Games (+110)
The Milwaukee Bucks are 2-0 down, losing both emphatically, despite Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 70 points and grabbing 30 rebounds across the two games in Indianapolis.
Damian Lillard’s return from injury might give Milwaukee enough juice on offense to snatch a game at home, but Milwaukee clearly doesn’t have what it takes to turn this series around.
Without tradeable assets and facing another first-round exit, the Giannis era could well be coming to an end in Milwaukee. Indiana, meanwhile, are a sneakily dangerous second-round opponent if Pascal Siakam maintains these standards.
Don’t forget to check out these articles too:
Key Factors to Consider When Betting the NBA Playoffs
X Factor Players in the NBA Playoffs
How Seriously Should Lakers Be Taken?
Thunder vs the Field and Where is the value?
How to Bet on NBA Futures During the Season
Five Tips for Betting on NBA Game Totals
Ten Best Golden State Warriors Ever
NBA Playoff Preview – the Athletic
