The Wild Card Round is almost upon us, and as the 6th and 7th seeds attempt to pull off season-altering upsets, one question keeps coming up: who actually has a real shot to win it all?

Playoff seeding can be misleading. Winners of weak divisions often sit above high-end wild card teams, and in a season where no true favorite has emerged, things are even less predictable. So instead of relying on seeds, we’re ranking every playoff team by their realistic championship odds.

Who’s a legitimate contender, who’s a dark horse, and who’s just along for the ride? Let’s break it down.

 

1. Los Angeles Rams (+440)

 

The Rams boast the most dynamic offensive duo in the league in Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, who could very well contend for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, respectively. They’re surrounded by young talent, with veterans like Stafford and Davante Adams providing leadership and deep playoff experience.

There are other rosters with comparable talent, but what separates the Rams is Sean McVay. McVay already has a Super Bowl ring, and his relentless, detail-driven commitment to football makes him one of the most dangerous playoff coaches in the league. When you pair an elite offensive mind with a quarterback-receiver duo this lethal, you have to treat them as the team to beat.

 

2. Seattle Seahawks (+390)

 

When Mike Macdonald was hired as head coach, he was viewed as a long-term project, a young defensive mind who might need a few seasons to settle in. That narrative didn’t last long.

Then there’s Sam Darnold, the former Jets bust turned journeyman who rebuilt his career in Minnesota and now Seattle. He hasn’t been perfect, but he manages games efficiently, consistently feeds Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and keeps the offense on schedule.

Seattle leads the league in points allowed, and Macdonald has shown the value of a defensive-minded head coach in today’s NFL. This team is a betting favorite for a reason. The gap between them and the Rams is razor thin, and it genuinely feels like the NFC holds the two strongest Super Bowl paths this season.

 

3. New England Patriots (+1000)

 

Just behind Stafford in MVP odds sits Drake Maye, the only other legitimate candidate in that conversation. Maye was a question mark when New England drafted him, but he has developed at a remarkable pace. Mike Vrabel deserves major credit for leading this team out of the brief Jerod Mayo era and into a No. 2 seed.

There are fair concerns about strength of schedule and whether Maye, still young, will handle playoff pressure. But based on how he’s played, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. New England’s defense is quietly elite, and if they hold up while Maye delivers in big moments, the Patriots are absolutely legitimate Lombardi contenders.

 

4. Denver Broncos (+650)

 

The big question around the league: are the Broncos for real?

Offensively, the concerns are valid. Rookie RJ Harvey leads the ground game, the receiving room lacks top-end talent, and Bo Nix looks closer to a solid game manager than a star. With Sean Payton at the helm, expectations are understandably higher.

What’s being overlooked is how dominant this defense is. Denver ranks top five in multiple categories, from total yards allowed to sack rate to points allowed. They’re strong at every level, with Surtain, Hufanga, and Greenlaw making consistent impact. I’ll never cheer for them as a Raiders fan, but the defense alone gives them legitimate championship upside.

 

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1300)

 

This is the true dark horse of the playoffs. Few expected Jacksonville to look this complete in Liam Coen’s first season as head coach.

The defense has taken a step forward, with former No. 1 pick Travon Walker becoming a disruptive force in both the run and pass game. More importantly, Trevor Lawrence has finally found his groove. He looks comfortable, confident, and dangerous, delivering eye-popping stat lines and playing his best football at the right time.

If the Jaguars continue at this level, they’re well worth the +1300 odds.

 

6. Philadelphia Eagles (+800)

 

Nick Sirianni won a Super Bowl with this team last year, but you wouldn’t know it from their 2025-26 performance. The offense has been out of sync, while the defense continues to dominate.

Jalen Hurts must rediscover his form for a repeat to be realistic. Saquon Barkley hasn’t been the same, and the receiver room seems emotionally volatile from week to week. The Eagles have the weapons to score, but if the offense continues to sputter, those odds will seem too generous in hindsight.

 

7. Chicago Bears (+2000)

 

What else can you say about this team? They win close games.

Ben Johnson deserves credit for a rapid turnaround, and while Caleb Williams hasn’t been flawless, he’s clutch when it matters most. This team is beatable, but they know how to finish games. If Johnson continues to scheme creatively and Williams stays poised, Chicago is a sneaky dark horse.

 

8. Houston Texans (+1100)

 

Houston is the most difficult team to rank. One moment they look like contenders, the next like a team waiting to collapse.

DeMeco Ryans has been outstanding, guiding the Texans through an eight-game win streak. But C.J. Stroud has been inconsistent. The defense is elite, anchored by Will Anderson Jr., but if Stroud and the offensive line can’t stabilize, the run ends early.

 

9. Buffalo Bills (+1000)

 

Josh Allen will always attract belief, and rightly so. He’s dragged this team into the postseason despite offensive inconsistencies and defensive injuries.

Still, the roster hasn’t been healthy or cohesive enough all year. Between line issues, defensive attrition, and inconsistent buy-in across the offense, it’s hard to see Buffalo surviving four playoff games against top-tier competition.

 

10. San Francisco 49ers (+2700)

 

The 49ers sneak into the top ten, largely due to Brock Purdy’s midseason absence distorting their record.

The offense has come into its own since his return, but injuries have ravaged the defense. Without Fred Warner and with additional linebacker concerns, a unit already near the bottom in sack rate is stretched thin. They may push Philadelphia, but this roster isn’t complete enough for a deep run.

 

11. Green Bay Packers (+1900)

 

Green Bay’s promising season has been undone by injuries.

With Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft out, Christian Watson and Josh Jacobs banged up, and Jordan Love returning from concussion protocol, there are serious questions about this team’s ceiling. They’re not out of it, but I personally will be surprised if they survive the Wild Card round.

 

12. Los Angeles Chargers (+3000)

 

Few teams are harder to evaluate.

The Chargers have a top-10 defense, a respected head coach in Jim Harbaugh, and a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. On paper, they should be contenders. In practice, chaos reigns. Drops, offensive line breakdowns, and Herbert playing hero ball have defined their season. That formula rarely works in January.

 

13. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000)

 

Pittsburgh barely made the postseason and can thank a missed field goal for their survival.

The roster is heavy with recognizable names, many of them past their prime, including 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers. His football IQ remains elite, but this team lacks explosiveness and defensive dominance. Getting Tomlin back to the playoffs was fun. That’s where it ends.

 

14. Carolina Panthers (+20000)

 

This team isn’t winning the Super Bowl.

If they did, Bryce Young would get a statue and Dave Canales would be immortalized in NFL lore. Carolina has exceeded expectations, but they’re still an 8-9 team with a developing roster and a quarterback being praised for simply being competent. They’ll be an underdog every step of the way.

 

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