Sandman Golf Crush & Fade
Sandman Golf Crush & Fade: The American Express + TGL
With the turn of the calendar, we usher in a new golf season and with it a new content offering on Enter Sandman Sports. Welcome to “Crush & Fade,” where we will do our best to help you make a few bucks each week on the PGA Tour, the new TGL, and possibly other golf leagues as well.
If we can do even close to as well on the fairways & greens as we did on the gridiron, I recommend you keep reading each week. Kudos to our football expert Eric Bierman, who went 36-20-1 on his Best Bets this season. Pat Klett was stellar on the Stone Cold Locks segment of our podcast with a ridiculous 39-17-1 mark, while Eric was 34-22-1 and the Sandman was in plus territory at 31-24-2.
2025 Sandman Golf Crush & Fade Record – 1-0
Jupiter Links GC (+135) vs LA GC (-180) (*All lines are from ESPN BET)
Did you watch TGL last week? I thoroughly enjoyed it, but I felt like I was in the vast minority of my friends. I correctly predicted the Bay Golf boys would defeat NY, led by one of my favorite Tour pros Shane Lowry.
Why does this new TMRW Golf League (TGL) feel so divisive? Tiger Woods & Rory McIlroy are investing in something they call “golf re-imagined.” If you are expecting it to be like real golf, well then I don’t know what to tell you…it clearly isn’t. It is a new vehicle to provide fun & entertaining content to golf & sports fans that is additive to the Tour/LIV, etc. Personally, I love seeing awesome athletes in different settings where hopefully they can let their personalities shine through while still showcasing their incredible abilities. I love YouTube golf content creators as well, so this feels a little bit more like that to me…except with a bunch of the best golfers on the planet. The first broadcast was well done. I’m sure they will clean some things up moving forward and continue to improve. The match itself last week was a blowout from the first swing, so hopefully this week will bring a little more drama.
If you don’t want to watch it, I get it…it definitely isn’t for everyone. But, I will be watching Tuesday night to see Tiger Woods, Max Homa & Kevin Kisner (Jupiter Links) face off against LA (Morikawa, Rose & Sahith).
For me, we talk all the time on Enter Sandman Sports about not overcomplicating things. I just don’t see the GOAT losing in his first match. This project was his baby from the very beginning, and Jupiter Links finds a way to win tonight…Homa and Kisner will be laser-focused all night because there is no way they want Tiger to lose this either. Plus odds…yes please. CRUSH this one.
CRUSH: Jupiter Links GC +135
The American Express
The AmEx is one of the early season tournaments played across multiple tracks in a Pro-Am format. Players will compete across the Coachella Valley at the Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta CC, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course before the Saturday cut is established…then finish Sunday back on The Stadium Course. Nick Dunlap is the defending champion.
Unfortunately, some big names have withdrawn after committing to the tournament, so we won’t see Xander, Mav McNealy, Denny McCarthy, or Seamus Power tee it up this week.
I have my eyes on a couple of guys who have been in great form and look to get their 2025 campaign kickstarted in California.
Sandman Top Bets
Each week I will highlight some players I think might be good plays in this category. I might stretch to find the value and steer clear of the chalky plays in some tournaments.
I am a golf picker that loves recent form and course history more than anything.
So with those themes in mind, I really like Sam Burns, Nico Echavarria & Eric Cole this week.
- Sam Burns is a horse for the course AND he is in good form. Plus, I just like Sam Burns…seems like a good dude that you would love to go hunting with or invite to a buddy’s golf trip.
- Nico Echavarria has been in great form and just missed last week at The Sony Open when Nick Taylor (GO DAWGS!) chipped in for eagle on the 72nd hole and then emerged as the victor in extra holes. I really enjoyed getting to know Nico on the Foreplay Podcast, and from that he seems like a kid that will be unfazed by the close loss last week. Onwards and upwards for Colombia!
- Eric Cole is someone who I have had my eye on for more than a year. He continues to progress his game and seems to always be lurking. This just might be his time…I feel like a stretch into the Top5 is warranted given his surge last week at The Sony and his contending 2024 AmEx.
- Tom Hoge has rocketed out to quick starts at Sentry and Sony, and I feel like a hot start this week might just carry additional momentum given his T2, T6, and T17 since 2020 here at the AmEx.
CRUSH: Sam Burns Top5 +360 CRUSH: Nico Echavarria Top10 +500 CRUSH: Eric Cole Top5 +1100 CRUSH: Tom Hoge Top20 +210
Picking guys to FADE can be a bit trickier given there isn’t a bet you are playing but rather looking at some of the chalkier picks that I think might struggle this week. “No Hat Pat” Cantlay does have a fairly impressive track record here, but not over the past 2 years. I need to see him back on the podium before I start believing in this guy again.
Nick Dunlap is a great young player. He won here as an amateur and then decided to go pro. The vibes have to be high here…and he putted the ball well at Sony, and when the flatstick is hot, he is an absolute weapon. But, I think in his first defending champ appearance he struggles a bit to jump back into the Top10. These youngsters need to learn how to deal with the expectations and obligations as a defending champ, as much if not more, than the courses and greens.
Hard not to love what Sungjae Im has done here since 2019, he’s 6-for-6 with four Top12s, a T18 and a T25. Throw in his Sentry podium, and it feels like a guy with his scoring firepower is a no-brainer here. I feel like he contends, but track record leans more towards missing the Top10, so I would FADE him there and put that money elsewhere on someone with more value.
FADE: Patrick Cantlay Top10 +220 FADE: Nick Dunlap Top10 +410 FADE: Sungjae Im Top10 +170
