Crush & Fade: 125th US Open
Welcome back to Crush & Fade. This weekly series looks at the current PGA Tour event and offers a quick look back at the last one.
Before diving in, a quick shoutout to all the dads out there and Happy Father’s Day. I’m lucky to have a great dad and father-in-law, and even luckier to be the dad of three amazing kids. Here’s to all of you, and may the golf gambling gods be with you this week.
RBC Canadian Open Recap
What a tournament. Ryan Fox birdied the 72nd hole to force a playoff and then won it on the fourth extra hole over Sam Burns, who had lit up the final round with a scorching 62. No Canadian winner this year, though Nick Taylor had a brief moment before a late double bogey ended his hopes. Fox, who just won at Myrtle Beach last month, is now headed to the US Open playing some of the best golf of his career.
US Open Preview
The 2025 edition heads to Oakmont Country Club, just outside Pittsburgh, for a record 10th time. This Par 70 beast stretches 7,372 yards and is famous for punishing rough, glassy greens, and some of the most demanding tee-to-green tests in all of golf. The Par 3 8th plays 289 yards, the Par 5s are 600-plus yards, and the mix of drivable short 4s and brutal long ones should make for incredible drama. Oakmont is as much of a storyline as Scottie Scheffler himself.
Bryson DeChambeau returns as the defending champ after that miraculous finish last year at Pinehurst. He has been a consistent factor in the majors lately and will be looking to go back-to-back.
Sandman Top Bets
Scottie Scheffler is a ridiculous +275 to win. I still think he has a real shot at achieving the Career Grand Slam this year, but let’s look for some other value plays this week:
- Jon Rahm to Win (+1200) – His form has been strong heading into majors and he looks dialed in. T8 at the PGA, five Top 12s in his last six events. If anyone can challenge Scottie, it’s Rahm.
- Bryson DeChambeau Top 5 (+180) – Too good to ignore. His length could be a huge asset at Oakmont, and he’s shown he knows how to play championship golf. If he dials in his driver, he’s a serious threat.
- Keegan Bradley Top 10 (+475) – Eight Top 20s already this year. This course sets up well for him as it is long, demanding, and favors players who stay patient and hit fairways.
- Shane Lowry Top 20 (+170) – Mr. Consistent. Great hands, great iron player, and thrives in tough conditions. Feels like a smart and steady pick for a strong finish.
CRUSH PLAYS
- CRUSH: Jon Rahm Win (+1200)
- CRUSH: Bryson DeChambeau Top 5 (+180)
- CRUSH: Keegan Bradley Top 10 (+475)
- CRUSH: Shane Lowry Top 20 (+170)
FADE of the Week
Joaquin Niemann is on a heater with LIV, but his major record is still shaky. He did notch a T8 at the PGA Championship, but it’s hard to bet on him with any confidence until he shows consistency in majors.
- FADE: Niemann to Win (+2800)
- FADE: Niemann Top 10 (+275)
- FADE: Niemann Top 20 (+130)
Good luck this week and enjoy the 125th US Open from Oakmont.
And may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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