Sandman Golf Crush & Fade: Farmers + TGL
Welcome to v2 of Crush & Fade on Enter Sandman Sports. We’ll reflect on last week’s performance before turning our eyes forward. After all, without some introspection, how can we improve? As they say, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, right? I find myself leaning towards Top20 plays and what I will refer to as “Fairway Finders” at The Farmers because we need to find the fairway to score.
2025 Sandman Golf Crush & Fade TGL Record – 1-1
New York GC (+100) vs Atlanta Drive GC (-130) (*All lines are from ESPN BET)
Last week, the thought process seemed sound, but you definitely need three guys performing at least average to score well in TGL, and Kevin Kisner was awful. We did get lots of laughs and the most iconic viral moment in the young TGL season when Kisner bladed a bunker shot off the pin and sent the other pros into first duck & cover and then hysterics. It was funny. My play of Jupiter Links was not, as they got smoked 12-1.
I have really enjoyed the first two weeks of TGL, and they made some nice corrections from the first week that I thought made it more appealing. First of all the pumped-in crowd noise and towel waving were mostly gone, leaving more drama and attention on the important shots. There was definitely some questioning from the pros on yardages returned by the simulator, and they’ll need to get this completely dialed to have any credibility with the audience, and more importantly, probably the players over the long haul. The Tiger Woods intro was pretty over the top…and I don’t think we need to see every player introduced at the beginning of each match.
This week we see New York play their second match against Atlanta Drive. Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler & Cameron Young (debut) will square off against Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel and Justin Thomas. I wonder how much guys will improve after playing their first match and working out some of the nerves that have been apparent. I still like the ball strikers of Cantlay, Horschel and JT to win this week.
CRUSH: Atlanta Drive GC -130
The American Express
Congrats to Sepp Straka who tore up the Coachella Valley en route to his third PGA Tour victory. 500 FedEx Cup Points and $1,584,000 to the Austrian born, Georgia Bulldog who now lives in Alabama. Sepp has always been one of my favorites because he is known to travel to tournaments at Pepsi-sponsored events with cases of Coke Zero in tow. We all know nobody wants to drink that swill!
The Farmers Insurance Open
It’s a quick turnaround this week as the Tour heads to La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. The Farmers is the only tournament I can think of off the top of my head that is played Wednesday – Saturday to avoid the NFL dominating Sunday with the Conference Championship Round. Players will play the South Course and the North Course over Thursday and Friday and then after the cut line is established play the South Course both weekend rounds. Matthieu Pavon is the defending champion. He had that unbelievable shot into the 72nd hole to best Nicolai Hojgaard last year and collect his first-ever PGA Tour win.
Unfortunately, some big names have withdrawn after committing to the tournament, so we won’t see Xander (again) or Collin Morikawa tee it up this week.
I have my eyes on a few guys this week who have shown the ability to master Torrey Pines the past few years.
Sandman Top Bets
Last week, I missed on my Top4 CRUSH plays as Burns, Hoge & Cole all finished outside of the bet zone I targeted and Nico Echavarria faded late on Saturday and missed the cut. My FADE plays were better with Sungjae Im and defending champ Nick Dunlap finishing lower than handicappers thought while Patrick Cantlay proved me wrong and delivered again at the AmEx with a T5.
A reminder that each week I will highlight some players I think might be good plays in this category. I might stretch to find the value and steer clear of the chalky plays in some tournaments.
I am a golf picker that loves recent form and course history more than anything.
So with those themes in mind, I am focused on cashing some tickets this week with my “Fairway Finder” Top20 plays and really like Captain Keegan Bradley, Jason Day, Aaron Rai and a longer play with Thomas Detry this week.
- Keegan Bradley is a horse for the course AND he is our 2025 Ryder Cup Captain. Keegan boasts a gaudy 7-for-7 with three top fives around Torrey Pines.
- Jason Day has been in great form and just finished T3 to Sepp Straka at the AmEx. The Aussie’s game looks sharp and he looks healthy. The guy has been a Top10 machine at Torrey and showcases two wins in the last 10 years.
- Aaron Rai is someone who I really enjoyed getting to know better on the Barstool Sports Foreplay pod a few months ago. He has a great story and the Brit is a fairway finding machine. He’s three-for-three at Torrey and finished T6 in 2022.
- Thomas Detry is getting better odds and has a track record building at Torrey. He had a nice T5 start in Hawaii at The Sentry to boost his confidence heading into his third trip around La Jolla North & South this week.
CRUSH: Keegan Bradley Top20 +120 CRUSH: Jason Day Top20 +140 CRUSH: Aaron Rai Top20 +200 CRUSH: Thomas Detry Top20 +260
Picking guys to FADE can be a bit trickier given there isn’t a bet you are playing but rather looking at some of the chalkier picks that I think might struggle this week.
Sungjae Im struggled to get things going in his opening round at the Stadium Course this past week and I think he struggles again on the difficult Torrey Pines circuit.
Hideki Matsuyama is one of my favorite players on Tour so I never like to include him here…but, this feels like a big price to pay for another solid week Top10 +130. Hideki loves this place but he hasn’t been stellar here of late 2024 T13, 2022, T9, 2021 T30, 2020 T53. Doesn’t feel like a strong fade when you are avoiding Top10 but don’t feel like I’m getting the match between odds & recent form here.
FADE: Sungjae Im Top10 +230 FADE: Hideki Matsuyama Top10 +130
