Sandman Golf Crush & Fade: Pebble + TGL

Welcome to v3 of Crush & Fade on Enter Sandman Sports. We’ll reflect on last week’s performance before turning our eyes forward to the Monterey Peninsula. Last week we slowed it down and played some classic Sandman baby fades aka some “Fairway Finders” [Top20 plays] and this week we missed the TGL match window as they played Monday night the 27th so no pick from me this week in the big Tiger (Jupiter Links) vs Rory (Boston Common) match. Speaking of TGL I would like to touch on this new league before getting into the picks for the week and sharing our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Golf Predictions.

TGL:

Most people I know seem to be completely dismissing the new tech-infused simulator golf league started by the aforementioned Tiger & Rory. Here are my thoughts through four weeks…call me an apologist if you like…I am enjoying it but have lots of thoughts:

1. I’m rooting for it because I like extra/additive golf content. This is not taking away from anything nor is it trying to replace anything. I enjoy seeing these guys and having some access to them in a different way than the typical golf tournament.

2. The average viewers dropping in week three had many crowing about the league’s demise already. Obviously, you don’t want to see the trend line going down, but viewers are outperforming college basketball in that normal time slot on ESPN.

3. I would be stunned if numbers from tonight’s Tiger vs Rory match aren’t higher [SPOILER ALERT: Tonight’s match was really entertaining and went down to the wire with Tiger’s Jupiter Links squad besting Boston in OT].

4. The average viewership is skewing 10+ years younger than on PGA Tour broadcasts. Getting the product of golf in front of younger audiences is a good thing all up. While it might not matter or appeal as much to my older demographic every sport has to think about growing the game with younger generations or risk extinction.

5. There is lots of discussion on the PGA Tour, in the media covering it & in the YouTube/content space about real golf regarding the coverage, the lack of media rights & player accessibility and the time it takes to play a round of competitive golf. The fact the PGA Tour won’t enforce the rules around speed of play infuriates and alienates a lot of fans…so leagues like LIV and TGL can help expedite positive changes on the game we all love far more than simulator golf.

6. The TGL venue SoFi Stadium is incredible.

7. The TGL simulator technology has not been incredible. In fact, tons of negative perception is gaining steam based on some of the results & player commentary in the first three weeks. First of all, they have to get this right. It’s a non-starter if not…the league will be toast before it gets a chance to take hold with fans and players alike. I think this is more a product of blowouts in the first two matches and working out the kinks which is something to be expected with any technology product and/or service.

Players on Tour frequently can be heard telling their caddies they flushed it or how did that go right or blame winds or changing winds or whatever the excuse. We have all done it. So in part these guys have to get used to the contact, flight, adrenaline, surfaces, etc. they are dealing with in this new simulated environment. I’m not saying there haven’t been issues….especially with the wedge distances. Last week they did change the distances where they used the forward tees because player feedback was the visuals were just off and therefore the feel shots were more difficult than what they expected. Seems like the last two matches have been closer and far less issues.

8. A few buddies have suggested mixing up players. I hope they have a chance to do it even across leagues. Mix in a couple of LIV teams…give me Phil Mickelson/Bryson DeChambeau/Cam Smith and Brooks Koepka/Dustin Johnson/Patrick Reed. Add some “villains” for competitive entertainment.

9. I wish they had structured teams based on actual geographic locations. One of my favorite part of fandom is my attachment to my city and my state and my region. It just feels goofy with Rory on Boston Common. Give me Rory, Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick & Tommy Fleetwood on the United Kingdom GC. Play up the rivalries in the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup.

2025 Sandman Golf Crush & Fade TGL Record: 2-1

This Week’s Pick: New York GC (+100) vs Atlanta Drive GC (-130) (*All lines are from ESPN BET)

I like the Atlanta Drive team. I could do without “No Hat” Pat. If you are going to be a part of this league you should be doing your best to entertain the masses. This league is about more than just golf swings. But, JT, Billy Horschel and Cantlay dominated the match winning 4-0.

New York GC falls to 0-2 with Cameron Young making his debut. They need to find something in their 3rd match against Jupiter Links.

CRUSH: Atlanta Drive GC -130 [WIN]

Recap: The Farmers Insurance Open

Congrats to Harris English who picks up his first win as a father. He is such a steady calm player and he bested the field in brutal conditions around Torrey Pines this week. I loved seeing and hearing his emotion while holding his young daughter after the victory.

A Look Ahead: Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Now an elevated, no-cut event it means we have a field of 80 players who will compete over Pebble & Spyglass the first two rounds before finishing the tournament at historic Pebble Beach for the weekend.

I was lucky enough to play Pebble and Spyglass a few years ago on a buddy golf trip. We had a connection to play Monterey Peninsula as well and it was definitely my least favorite track we played so not disappointed they axed it from the rotation this year. We will have full “Shot Link” data this week which is cool too for fans like me that love the data of golf.

I have my eyes on a few guys this week who have shown the ability to master the Pro-Am and Pebble rota the past few years.

Sandman Top Bets: Pebble beach golf predictions

Alright , who is ready for some golf predictions for Pebble Beach? Last week, I hit on Keegan Bradley and my longest play of Thomas Detry! Jason Day had a rough Saturday (4th round) shooting +4 on the South Course to slip down to T32 while Aaron Rai got caught in the gale force winds and missed the cut. My FADE plays were 1-for-2 as Sungjae Im played very solid from the start and wrapped up T4 and Hideki faded on Sunday to T32.

A reminder that each week I will highlight some players I think might be good plays in this category. I might stretch to find the value and steer clear of the chalky plays in some tournaments.

I am a golf picker that loves recent form and course history more than anything.

FAIRWAY FINDER TOP 20 PLAYS

So with those themes in mind and my success last week, I am focused on cashing tickets this week with my “Fairway Finder” Top20 plays and really like Ludvig Aberg, Jason Day, Thomas Detry and a longer play with Harry Hall this week.

Ludvig Aberg struggled mightily over the South Course this week in the wind. I was shocked after he posted a 9-under 63 on the North Course in his 1st round. But, Pebble & Spyglass will be gettable for the Swede this week as he showed with his solo 2nd last year.

Jason Day has been in great form and had one off round last week at The Farmers. The Aussie’s game looks sharp and he looks healthy. The guy has been a Top20 machine at Pebble Beach.

Thomas Detry is fresh off cashing the Top20 ticket last week at The Farmers so I’m going to keep riding the hot hand. The Belgian has been hot early this year and finished T4 last year.

Harry Hall feels like a great story this week on a sponsor exemption. The Englishman has been rolling along since last summer and I think he keeps the train moving this week with another Top20 finish.

WHO TO CRUSH

CRUSH: Ludvig Aberg Top20 -125

CRUSH: Jason Day Top20 +140

CRUSH: Thomas Detry Top20 +230

CRUSH: Harry Hall Top20 +240

WHO TO FADE

Picking guys to FADE can be a bit trickier given there isn’t a bet you are playing but rather looking at some of the chalkier picks that I think might struggle this week.

Keegan Bradley has been on a roll and his mustache game is so on point right now. But, he has been playing a bunch including flying from San Diego back to Florida to compete in Boston Common’s first TGL match. Then back on a plane to fly to Northern California for Pebble. I think he runs out of gas this week.

You won’t find me fading Scottie…really ever. But, coming back from his hand-injury this week I just don’t see the value in playing him Top5 or Top10 especially at those prices.

FADE: Keegan Bradley Top10 +400

FADE: Scottie Scheffler Top10 -190

Thanks for checking out the picks and good luck with our Pebble Beach Golf Predictions!