Longshot Cy Young Bets for the Upcoming Season

Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are the preseason American League and National League Cy Young favorites, respectively. Skubal is coming off a Triple Crown, Cy Young-winning 2024 season, while a lack of volume is all that stopped Skenes pipping Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler to the NL honor. For those looking into Longshot Cy Young Bets, other pitchers could provide great value.

Skubal and Sale – the 2024 Cy Young winners – were not among the favorites 12 months ago. Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and others had shorter odds than Skubal. In the NL, Sale was nowhere to be seen, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Wheeler, Tyler Glasnow, Max Fried, and a long list of other aces deemed to have a better chance of winning the Cy Young.

The number of pitching injuries across the majors mean the Cy Young race is often far harder to predict than MVP. This also opens up betting opportunities for longer odds picks.

Six different pitchers have won the NL Cy Young in the last six seasons. Four of those have been first-time winners. The AL has had five winners in five seasons, including four first-time winners. In the last decade, Rick Porcello, Robbie Ray, and Sandy Alcántara have surprisingly won the award.

American League Longshot Cy Young Picks

Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Cole Ragans, and Gerrit Cole are the four favorites at most sportsbooks. They are the only AL pitchers with a price shorter than +1100, which is where we drew the line for selecting these longshots.

Jacob deGrom — +2000 at BetRivers

Jacob deGrom has pitched under 200 innings across the last four seasons. He’s not passed 100 innings in any of those campaigns. This price reflects deGrom’s long-running health issues, which brought an end to an all-time prime in the second half of the 2010s.

Significantly, the former New York Met is still elite when he pitches. He has a 2.01 ERA and 7.3 bWAR since the start of 2021 (197.1 innings).

It was only three starts for the deGrom in 2024, but he still struck out 14 hitters in 10.2 innings. He’s lost a bit of velocity – the 97.3 mph fastball and 90 mph slider are still going to play in the big leagues. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he regained some velocity with a full offseason to prepare.

When healthy, deGrom is still one of the very best pitchers on the planet. It’s hard to trust the health of a 36-year-old with his injury record, but it’s still worth a wager at this price, considering that he could win the Cy Young if he gets to 160 innings.

Hunter Brown — +2500 at DraftKings

Struggles early last season meant Hunter Brown’s season-long stats don’t tell the full story. He had a 2.26 ERA after the All-Star break after allowing four earned runs in 31 innings in June.

In the 93^rd percentile in barrel rate, 97^th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 81^st percentile in groundball rate, Brown excels at hit prevention while striking out over a quarter of the hitters he faces.

Throwing a four-seamer, sinker, cutter, change, curve, and an occasional slider, he has a wide arsenal of average to good pitches. His location+ was 108 or better on each of his pitches, too.

Brown has thrown 345 innings over the last two seasons. His volume will work in his favor against some of the players with shorter Cy Young odds.

Grayson Rodriguez — +5000 at FanDuel

Grayson Rodriguez throws five pitches. All five had 98 or better stuff+ and 104 or better location+ in 2024. From a slightly disappointing rookie year, Rodriguez chipped away at his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate, while markedly decreasing his hard-hit rate allowed.

Massive whiff rates on his slider and change give Rodriguez a complete repertoire. If he can generate a bit more soft contact, he could see his ERA plummet below 3.00.

Away from the numbers, a big year from Rodriguez will get more attention as the Baltimore Orioles’ lone ace after Burnes departed. His candidacy could get a boost if the Orioles somehow beat the New York Yankees to the AL East.

National League Longshot Cy Young Picks

Skenes, Wheeler, Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Chris Sale make up the leading quintet for the NL Cy Young. All five are +1100 or shorter at the major sportsbooks, so we’ve looked further down the market for our longshot picks.

Dylan Cease — +2200 at BetMGM

Dylan Cease wouldn’t be the first player to play their best baseball in their walk year. Cease has had two top-four Cy Young finishes in the last three seasons, and had a 3.31 xERA in 2024.

Only five starters had a higher strikeout rate last season. His pitching+ is tied with Wheeler for the second-best in the majors, while he boasts an above-average stuff+ on his fastball, cutter, and slider. A 2.66 ERA after the All-Star break gave us a taster of what we can expect in 2025.

An uptick in his groundball rate is a promising sign. Cease also threw the most innings of his career in 2024, taking him to an average of 179 over the last four seasons.

Hunter Greene — +3500 at FanDuel

After throwing 150 innings with a 2.75 ERA, few pitchers would be as long as +3500 to win the Cy Young. Hunter Greene is only projected for three fWAR by ZiPS, and he’s yet to get his walk rate below 9%.

Still, the Cincinnati Reds flamethrower has exceptional stuff, with four pitches of 106 stuff+ or higher. He’s developed as a pitcher since coming into the big leagues and significantly broke the 150-inning threshold last season, indicating he could post Cy Young-winning volume.

Greene is always going to ride his high-velocity fastball, but his slider and splitter were very above-average last season. Tweaking his pitch usage could elevate his effectiveness in 2025.

Brandon Pfaadt — +9000 at DraftKings

Brandon Pfaadt decreased his walk rate, increased his strikeout rate, and got his xERA down to 3.78 last season. His sweeper has a 121 stuff+, and it gave up only a .244 xwOBA last season.

Possessing great location+ on all his pitchers, the Arizona Diamondbacks starter is a major breakout candidate. His change, sweeper, and sinker were all effective last season. He could be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher if he reduces his four-seam usage and works off the sinker.

As the third- or fourth-best starter on his own team, Pfaadt is obviously a massive outsider for the Cy Young. The combination of an elite pitch and great command gives a blueprint for success, however.

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