This is not the first, or even the second, time the Cleveland Browns have negatively impacted Three Picks and a Pass, so we’re making a binding promise for the final two weeks of the regular season. We’re staying away from the Browns.

In Week 16, our New England moneyline cashed, while Buffalo failed to cover the spread against the inexplicable Browns. The Buccaneers–Panthers over narrowly missed thanks to a late Baker Mayfield interception.

This week, we’re mixing things up. Our moneyline pick leans on desperation from a team that must win to stay alive. Our spread focuses on a team that has been hot for weeks, already locked into the playoffs, and playing for improved positioning.Meanwhile, we spend the second half of this piece “low”lighting a couple of bad matchups in our O/U pick and our pass of the week.

Best Moneyline of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-270 at Miami Dolphins)

The Buccaneers need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. The NFC South remains wide open, with Tampa Bay sitting one game behind the 8-7 Panthers.

Motivation matters here, but so does the matchup. Miami will again start rookie Quinn Ewers. While Ewers looked serviceable in his first start, throwing two interceptions against Cincinnati is not exactly encouraging. Tampa Bay is fully invested in winning, while Miami appears to be experimenting or quietly looking ahead. The path to a Buccaneers win is clear. If Baker Mayfield and company let us down, it will hurt them far more than it hurts us.

Best Spread of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5 at Indianapolis Colts)

The Jaguars are on an incredible second-half run, and at some point you simply have to buy in. Trevor Lawrence is playing the most confident football of his career, and Jakobi Meyers is quickly looking like one of the best trades of the season.

The Colts, on the other hand, appear to be unraveling. Philip Rivers has done a respectable job stepping in after five years away, but the once-stout Indianapolis defense is starting to wear down under long drives and limited rest.

These are divisional rivals heading in opposite directions, and the momentum feels overwhelming. Jacksonville is firmly in the hunt for a top AFC seed, and this sets up as a comfortable cover.

Best Over Under of the Week

Saints at Titans (Under 39.5)

Two rookie quarterbacks on struggling teams facing off usually leads to a low-scoring, sloppy game. Cam Ward has done what he can on a roster lacking direction, while Tyler Shough has been serviceable but uninspiring, throwing nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns.

Neither offense consistently generates explosive plays outside of the occasional big moment from players like Tony Pollard or Chris Olave. While anything is possible, neither side feels trustworthy enough to push this game over the number. The under presents solid value.

Game to Pass On

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders

The “who’s tanking harder” game of the year has arrived. The Giants, currently holding the top draft position, face the Raiders, who sit just behind them.

Brock Bowers is on injured reserve, Jaxson Dart is coming off a brutal performance, and it is unclear whether either coaching staff is fully committed to winning. With shaky quarterback play, questionable motivation, and unpredictable coaching decisions, this game could go in any direction.

Save yourself the stress and pass.

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