Week 17 was a rough one for Three Picks and a Pass, as we went 0–3 behind some genuinely surprising results. The Jaguars won by six but failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites, which was frustrating but at least understandable. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, continued their free fall, hitting a new low in a loss to the Quinn Ewers-led Dolphins. And what looked like a potential grinder between the Saints and Titans turned into a shootout, with both Cam Ward and Tyler Shough airing it out in a 34–26 Saints win.

So heading into Week 18, it’s time to reset and rebound. With most playoff spots already decided, this projects to be one of the tougher betting slates of the season. Several teams are expected to rest starters, others are playing for seeding, and a handful are simply trying to get to the finish line healthy.

With that in mind, I’ve pulled out one moneyline, one spread, and one over/under that sit outside the biggest rest-and-rotate landmines. Just as important this week, though, is the pass. Sometimes the best bet is knowing when not to bet. Let’s get into it.

Best Moneyline of the Week

Detroit Lions (+130 at Chicago Bears)

Chicago enters Sunday looking to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and head coach Ben Johnson has been clear that he doesn’t plan to sit his starters, though snap counts could come into play if things break right early.

That should inspire confidence in the Bears, but Detroit and Dan Campbell feel like the classic spoiler here. This has been a frustrating, underwhelming season for the Lions, but I don’t see them quietly going away. Jared Goff has been inconsistent and injuries have piled up, but Detroit should be playing loose and with nothing to lose.

Campbell would love nothing more than to make things uncomfortable for Ben Johnson in this spot, and in a flimsy Week 18 market, I think the Lions finish a disappointing season with a road win.

Best Spread of the Week

Indianapolis Colts (+10.5 at Houston Texans)

Houston will be playing its starters as it continues to fight for the AFC South, which naturally points many bettors toward a comfortable Texans win. Indianapolis, meanwhile, will start rookie Riley Leonard at quarterback as the Philip Rivers experiment officially comes to an end.

That sounds like a nightmare matchup for the Colts, but it may actually make this spread more playable than it looks. Houston has very little meaningful game tape on Leonard, and he’ll be surrounded by a functional offense rather than being asked to carry the load. Indianapolis isn’t likely to win this game outright, but asking them to stay within double digits feels reasonable.

Week 18 is all about numbers, and +10.5 is simply too many points in a divisional game where one side is more concerned with getting out healthy than running up the score.

Best Over/Under of the Week

Browns at Bengals (Over 44.5)

Cincinnati found its offensive rhythm again last week against Arizona, and there’s no reason to expect Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow to take their foot off the gas in the season finale. Burrow remains as motivated as ever, and ending a lost season on a high note matters for both the locker room and the fan base.

Cleveland, for its part, has been better than expected offensively since Shedeur stepped into the starting role. He’s mostly been a game manager, but he’s done enough to move the ball against bad defenses, and the Bengals definitely qualify. Neither team is playing for postseason stakes, but that often leads to freer playcalling and fewer brakes.

This one sets up as a back-and-forth divisional game with plenty of points on the board.

Game to Pass On

Any Game With Multiple Starters Sitting

The reality is this is not a great week to bet heavily. Week 18 can be a gold mine or a minefield depending on motivation, and this year most of the major playoff questions are already answered.

Before placing any serious wagers or building parlays, check injury reports and coach press conferences carefully. Several teams are rolling out pre-season type lineups in an effort to get healthy for the playoffs, and those situations are almost impossible to handicap accurately.

When you don’t know who’s playing, how long they’ll play, or how the rotations will look, you’re guessing more than betting. I’ll be passing on those games, and I’d strongly suggest doing the same.

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