It’s been an up-and-down regular season for bettors and for Three Picks and a Pass, but after finishing the final week 2–1, I’m feeling good heading into Wild Card Weekend.

Detroit came through against Chicago, pulling off the upset against the Bears’ starters and cashing for us. The Colts couldn’t spring their own upset against Houston, but they did cover the +10.5 in Riley Leonard’s debut start, losing 38-30. Ironically, the pick I felt best about was the one that let us down. Cincinnati’s offense never found a rhythm, and Shedeur looked every bit like a rookie as the two bottom AFC North teams failed to clear the 44.5-point total. I hate to see it, but I’ll always take a winning record.

With fewer games in the playoffs, the edges become tighter, so I dug a little deeper this week. Our moneyline is a team being undervalued because of one star player on the other side. Our spread leans into a classic “rock and a hard place” matchup that should stay close. Our total attacks an inter-divisional playoff game that profiles as a shootout. And for the pass, I’m stepping aside from a matchup with too many unknowns and not enough value.

Best Moneyline of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars (-106 vs. Buffalo Bills)

The Jaguars are arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now. They’re executing on both sides of the ball, Liam Coen is scheming an intricate modern offense, and Trevor Lawrence is finally looking like the quarterback everyone believed he could be.

So why are they essentially a pick ’em against Buffalo? The answer is Josh Allen. Bettors and oddsmakers will never count him out while he’s playing at an MVP level. And while that logic is understandable, it overlooks the biggest edge in this matchup.

Buffalo’s defense is banged up, more than most people want to admit. Terrel Bernard, Maxwell Hairston, and Matt Milano were all listed as DNPs in the latest injury report, and Sean McDermott has indicated that Ed Oliver may not return from IR this week. That many missing contributors against one of the league’s most efficient offenses is a problem. I’m backing the healthier, better-balanced team.

Best Spread of the Week

San Francisco 49ers (+4.5 at Philadelphia Eagles)

San Francisco’s ugly loss to Seattle will scare some bettors away, especially with this being a road game against the defending Super Bowl champions. But this matchup projects to be far tighter than the line suggests.

Statistically, these teams mirror each other in opposite ways: the Eagles are elite defensively by EPA, while the 49ers are dominant offensively. When you factor in Brock Purdy’s injury-affected stretch earlier in the season, this becomes one of the league’s best offenses versus one of its best defenses.

Will the 49ers win outright? Maybe not. But they absolutely can. A one-score game fits this matchup perfectly, especially given Philadelphia’s ongoing offensive inconsistencies. San Francisco is built to play clean, mistake-free football, and that formula travels well in January. I’ll gladly take the points.

Best Over/Under of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Over 45.5)

Matt LaFleur has confirmed that Jordan Love is back just in time for the postseason. While that doesn’t push me to back Green Bay outright, it does increase my confidence that this game produces points.

These teams split results against this number in their two regular-season meetings. The deciding factor here is coaching. Ben Johnson and Matt LaFleur are two of the league’s best offensive architects. These teams know each other well, have the personnel to move the ball, and possess the schematic creativity to trade scores.

While the playoffs often deliver gritty, low-scoring battles, this one doesn’t profile that way. Bet the over and expect a back-and-forth game between two historic NFC North rivals.

Game to Pass On

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

In the playoffs, there are no truly bad games, which means we have to be more selective than ever.

This is the one I’m stepping away from. Houston is on a strong run, but they’re difficult to trust against a defense like Pittsburgh’s. At the same time, the Steelers’ underdog price isn’t attractive enough to justify a play.

The spread sits at a flat three, leaving almost no margin for error, and while 38.5 feels low, two flawed offenses make the total a coin flip. There are simply too many unanswered questions without enough value to justify a bet.

Sometimes the sharpest move is knowing when to pass.

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