Three value longshot bets for al & NL mvp
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani open as the respective American League and National League favorites. Ohtani is a long way ahead of the field as he returns to the mound in 2025 and managed to win by a distance in 2024, despite exclusively playing as a DH. Judge is closely followed by Bobby Witt Jr. at all the major sportsbooks.
Judge and Ohtani are deserving favorites. Witt, Gunnar Henderson, and Yordan Alvarez are understandably given a good chance of winning AL MVP by the sportsbooks, too. In the NL, Ohtani is trailed by Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr.
American League MVP Longshot Picks
Four AL players are +800 or shorter to win AL MVP. Priced fifth across the major sportsbooks, Corey Seager is between +1000 and +1600. We have surveyed the players outside the top five to pick out our three best longshot picks.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — +1700 at DraftKings
Just three AL hitters are projected for a higher wRC+ than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman was in the 98th percentile in xwOBA and posted his best hard-hit rate since 2021. He had a 1.127 OPS after the All-Star break.
Could there be any greater motivation than his upcoming free agency? Soto’s megadeal with the New York Mets has set a benchmark for Guerrero.
This price might not last long. Guerrero is only just in the longshot category, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him break into the frontrunning group in the next few weeks.
He’s one the best hitters in the sport with the talent to win a Triple Crown. These odds are phenomenal value in a walk year.
Julio Rodríguez — +3000 at DraftKings
Following Rookie of the Year in 2022 and a fourth-placed MVP finish in 2023, 4.3 bWAR and a .734 OPS represented a down year for Julio Rodríguez.
His Baseball Savant page is still packed with bright red bars. Rodríguez was in the 96th percentile in sprint speed, posted eight Outs Above Average, and ranked in the 96th percentile in bat speed. The power and athleticism are there for an MVP-contending campaign.
A low walk rate and high strikeout rate are the biggest roadblocks to Rodríguez elevating his game from burgeoning star to one of the 10 best position players in the big leagues.
It doesn’t take much for Rodríguez to have a six or seven WAR season with his speed and defensive prowess. If his walk rate gets above 7% like his rookie year and he maintains his decreased groundball rate from 2024, there’s a clear path to MVP.
Riley Greene — +7000 at FanDuel
Despite an All-Star nod and 5.4 bWAR in 2024, it feels like Riley Greene’s breakout campaign has gone under the radar.
Greene isn’t a highlight reel prospect like others that have broken through in the last couple of seasons. He’s not breaking exit velocity records, nor is he a candidate to steal 50 bases. What he does do, though, is control the strike zone with an elite eye.
A highly productive 2024 wasn’t reliant on luck. There was only a .002 difference between his wOBA and xwOBA. He walked in 11% of his plate appearances and was comfortably above league average in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, barrel rate, and bat speed.
His counting stats are suppressed by Comerica Park, and his WAR count isn’t going to be boosted by great defense. Greene is a solid enough corner outfield, though, and MVP voters can take park-adjusted statistics into account when it’s time to vote.
There’s value taking Greene at this price with what he showed us in 2024.
National League MVP Longshot Picks
Ohtani is in a tier of his own. Soto and Tatis are in a second tier, priced at +550 and +800, respectively, at FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. There’s then a gap to Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Tucker, who are between +1200 and +1800.
Ketel Marte — +3300 at FanDuel
ZiPS projects 19 National League players will amass more fWAR than Ketel Marte in 2025. The Arizona Diamondbacks All-Star collected 6.3 fWAR in 2024 thanks to a career year at the plate.
This was no fluke year. Marte had by far the best xwOBA of his career. He has become far more selective at the plate as he’s aged, resulting in an 11.1% walk rate in 2024. Significantly, he was more decisive than ever on ‘meatball’ pitches, swinging at a career-high 82.7% of such pitches.
The bat speed remains solidly above average, he’s good at avoiding strikeouts, and manages to consistently drive the ball. There really weren’t any clear flaws the Marte’s approach last season, and he unlocked a new level of exit velocity.
James Wood — +8000 at BetMGM
Baseball Prospectus ranked James Wood as the seventh-best prospect in baseball before last season. Wood had a 1.058 OPS in triple-A before a 122 OPS+ across 79 games in the big leagues.
In the mould of Elly de la Cruz, Wood is an ultra-toolsy, big-framed potential megastar. He was the centerpiece of the San Diego Padres’ deal to acquire Juan Soto, and there are already signs Wood alone will make the trade worthwhile for the Washington Nationals.
It’s probably a year early to be backing Wood for MVP. The +8000 price suggests just that. He’s a future All-Star and phenomenal all-around player, though, so we are happy to go a bit early on this one.
Defense and strikeouts were his only weaknesses in his rookie campaign. Elite sprint speed enabled 14 steals in less than half a season, while his 11.6% walk rate and 52% hard-hit rate rank alongside the best hitters in the world.
Jackson Merrill — +4000 at FanDuel
In most other years, 4.4 bWAR would be enough to win NL Rookie of the Year. Paul Skenes got in Jackson Merrill’s way for the award last season, but he picked up plenty of individual accolades with an All-Star selection, Silver Slugger, and a ninth-placed MVP finish.
Despite such a stellar rookie year, Merrill underachieved his xwOBA by 20 points. His 11.3% barrel rate could have led to even better production.
In the 94th percentile in xwOBA, the 81st percentile in sprint speed, and playing elite outfield defense, Merrill is going to rack up WAR across the board. His tendency to chase and a walk rate of 4.9% are what concerns us about backing him at this price.
Merrill is going to be an All-Star for years to come. Could he cut down on his 34.4% chase rate and become an MVP candidate in 2025?
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