thunder vs the field: where does the value lie in the western conference?
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a longest price of -115 (BetMGM) to win the Western Conference. This gives Mark Daigneault’s team a 53.5% implied probability of representing the west in the NBA Finals in June. For those looking into NBA Futures Value, this could be a significant opportunity.
The Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, and Los Angeles Lakers are the only Western Conference teams given a meaningful chance by the sportsbooks. Golden State, though, is still out at +1200 with FanDuel, while being as short as +650 at DraftKings.
The Lakers are between +375 and +550. Denver ranges from +500 to +700. The Memphis Grizzlies – shortest price of +1400 – are the only other team with half a sniff of making the 2025 NBA Finals. None of the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, or Minnesota Timberwolves have an implied probability higher than 3.8%.
So, when it comes to the Thunder against the field, we are primarily talking about the Thunder against the Warriors, Nuggets, and Lakers with a sprinkling of the Grizzlies thrown in for good measure.
Historically Great OKC
The 1995/96 Chicago Bulls are the only team in NBA history with a better net rating than the Thunder. Oklahoma City’s defense is 3.5 points better per 100 possessions than anyone else.
This Thunder team isn’t just dominating the 2024/25 regular season; they are writing their name into the history books as one of the most formidable regular season teams ever. Sure, they aren’t going to match the Warriors’ 73-win total, but Daigneault has constructed a winning machine.
As of March 7, the Thunder have won 40 (forty) games by 10 or more points.
OKC is a barely believable +17.7 points per 100 possessions in minutes with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The overwhelming MVP favorite has averaged 39.9 minutes per game in his last two playoff runs.
Perhaps most remarkably, the Thunder have performed at this level with Chet Holmgren playing 18 games, Isaiah Hartenstein missing 20, and Alex Caruso playing 39 of a possible 62. Their two big-time offseason additions have missed a combined 43 games, while their starting center has played fewer than 500 regular-season minutes.
Everything about this Thunder team should make them a clear favorite to represent the west in the NBA Finals in June. Teams this experienced – Caruso and Kenrich Williams are the only players older than 26 – rarely make the Finals, let alone lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Is that enough to look elsewhere in the betting markets? Or have sportsbooks got carried away with the big market surge?
Win-Now Dubs and Lakers
The Warriors and Lakers made the two biggest deal before the trade deadline, acquiring Jimmy Butler and Luka Dončić, respectively.
The Lakers are 9-2 since Dončić’s debut, taking them to 17 wins from their last 20 games, with the best defense in the league over that span.
The Warriors are 12-2 since Butler’s debut, ranking in the top five in offense and defense. Lineups with Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Butler boast a +8.8 net rating. In a small sample of 87 minutes, that trio with Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski is +19.9 per 100 possessions.
Both the Lakers and Warriors made win-now moves to make another push with Curry and LeBron James. Both deals have had the desired impact.
Golden State has climbed to sixth and could yet work its way to fifth. They would be favored in a first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Lakers had less work to do when Dončić was acquired thanks to their hot streak before the trade. JJ Redick’s team have climbed to second in the Western Conference, meaning they would theoretically avoid the Thunder until the Conference Finals.
The Lakers having the league’s best defense isn’t sustainable with their personnel, even with LeBron’s increased effort level. They are going to be impossible to stop on offense, though, with Dončić and James forming the best star tandem in the Association.
Golden State is short on options on the defensive end, too. Green remains elite, and Butler can be, but who will be guarding elite perimeter players on the other team? Butler surely can’t do that for 40+ minutes anymore.
Neither team would be favored in a series against the Thunder. Oklahoma City could run two-big lineups and look to overpower either team, with neither having a traditional center in their best five-man group.
Equally, the Dončić and LeBron pairing is intimidating in a playoff series. The same goes for Curry – who has been on a sensational heater – and playoff specialist Butler.
How Much Can Denver Offer
In the interest of fairness, let’s use the same sample for the Grizzlies and Nuggets as we did for their big-market foes. Memphis is 3-8 since Butler’s debut, ranking 19th in net rating over that period. Their defense has cratered. An inefficient season from Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s recent ankle sprain mean this doesn’t look like a Conference Finals team.
Denver is eighth in net rating with a 7-3 record. Since starting the season 14-11, though, the Nuggets are 26-11. Only the Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers have more wins over that period.
Michael Porter Jr. is quietly having the best season of his career. Jamal Murray, after a slow start to the year, is averaging 24.9 points, 6.1 assists, and shooting 43.5% from three-point range since Jan. 14.
Of course, Nikola Jokić remains the best player in the league. Christian Braun has stepped up in a big way, with the Nuggets 13 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
The Russell Westbrook experience is a concern in the playoffs. Once again, Denver lacks depth, too. Braun, Murray, Porter, Jokić, and Aaron Gordon is a well-balanced group, though, which will be hard to beat in crunch time in the postseason.
Three Legitimate Challengers
The field is marginally a better pick than the Thunder. Memphis is a non-factor amid their slump after the All-Star break, so it’s a case of the Nuggets, Warriors, and Lakers against the Thunder.
All three have been playing at an elite level for a prolonged period. All have postseason experience, and all have the star power to carry them to wins in tight playoff games.
The Thunder are an all-time great regular season team, but skepticism about them winning three straight playoff series is warranted, particularly as they are likely to face two of the Nuggets, Warriors, and Lakers.
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