Warriors’ reluctance to make win-now move leaves them as a non-factor in futures betting markets
The Golden State Warriors’ title odds shortened dramatically after their 12-3 start. The Dubs have tumbled down the Western Conference and drifted all the way to +5000 to win the NBA Finals at DraftKings. Currently 11th in the West, Golden State is +140 to make the playoffs and -175 to miss out.
Since Dec. 9, when a five-game losing streak began, the Warriors are 26th in net rating. There are few positives to be found. Twenty-fifth in offense and 26th in defense over that span, Steve Kerr’s team are 27th in true shooting percentage. The injury-hit Orlando Magic are the only playoff contender with fewer wins.
An early trade for Dennis Schröder has not had the desired impact.Schröder’s 45.5% true shooting as a Warrior is his worst since his rookie year. His turnover rate (15.9%) is the highest since his Atlanta Hawks days (aside from a very brief spell as a Houston Rocket). The German has been less efficient all over the court while turning the ball over more often despite a lower usage rate.
Golden State snapped up Schröder after he’d shone on an overachieving Brooklyn Nets team. Brooklyn was 11.3 points better per 100 possessions with Schröder on the floor. Golden State has been 15.9 points per 100 possessions better without Schröder.
Kerr, Curry & Green Urge Caution
The demise of the Warriors through most of December and January shouldn’t be blamed on Schröder.
Andrew Wiggins, back at 17 points per game, is one of the few Warriors to play at anywhere near expectations this season. Brandin Podziemski is suffering from second-season syndrome. Buddy Hield has been very streaky. Kevon Looney is playing on 15 minutes per night.
Most crucially, Steph Curry has been dealing with bilateral knee tendinitis. The two-time MVP also suffered another ankle injury against the Washington Wizards in January.
Golden State has been cautious throughout this run with Curry, Kerr, and Draymond Green. In-season, win-now trades have been infrequent enough to be almost non-existent.
With Schröder’s disappointing production thus far, it’s no surprise the organization is reluctant to mortgage more of its future to improve their short-term chances.
In mid-January, Green described the franchise’s stance.
“The beautiful part about being in the space that we’re in is, Steve Kerr, Steph Curry and myself all disagree with mortgaging off the future of this organization, saying that we’re going for it right now. Bad teams do that. Bad organizations do that. We’re not neither one.”
Via Anthony Slater, Curry echoed Green’s comments.
“There’s a responsibility of keeping the franchise in a good space (long term).
“If there was a situation that made sense for our team, I’m pretty sure we’d know about it. That’s how we’ve always operated.”
Kerr was equally realistic about the organization’s position.
“We’re not giving in. But you have to be realistic organizationally about where you are. And you have to mind what’s coming ahead in the future. I probably won’t be around, but I would tell you, if this organization gave away the next six or seven drafts for a wild swing, that would be the most irresponsible thing that they could do.”
The remaining members of the dynasty are in unison.
Continued Slide Towards Irrelevance
This pragmatism is nothing new for the Warriors. In an era when so many contenders have given up draft-pick hauls for star players, the Dubs have not been lured into such a move.
An offseason pursuit of Paul George was a rare sign of aggression on the trade market. The same goes for reported negotiations over Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen.
Drafting Curry, Klay Thompson, and Green enabled the Warriors to operate differently. The unique circumstances which led to the signing of Kevin Durant meant the Warriors had the most talented NBA roster ever without giving up its future draft picks.
Other shrewd acquisitions like Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, and Otto Porter Jr. provided a veteran presence on title-winning teams.
Porter’s uncharacteristically healthy season in 2021-22 helped the Warriors win an improbable fourth title of this era. The further we get from that run, the more it looks like an anomaly for the post-Durant Dubs.
Since Durant departed in 2019, the Warriors have failed to make the playoffs in three out of five seasons. One of the two postseason runs ended in a title. In the other, they needed seven games to beat the Sacramento Kings before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round.
On course to move to two playoff appearances in six years, the 2024/25 season is the natural trajectory for this team.
Hesitance Over Kuminga
Overcoming ageing and injuries to win the 2022 title was a phenomenal achievement, yet it allowed the front office to commit further to the “two timelines” fantasy.
This was the dream for the Warriors – could they replicate the San Antonio Spurs’ seamless rebuilding while competing? San Antonio, though, managed to usher their new era in with Kawhi Leonard. The Warriors never found a player even close to Leonard’s caliber.
Golden State has invested in Kuminga as their future. After a stellar rookie year, the same has gone for Podziemski. Both players have reportedly been dealbreakers in trade talks, preventing the Dubs from adding more peak talent around Curry and Green.
Warriors Futures Odds Should Be Avoided
The comments from Kerr, Green, and Curry show the Warriors are not doing anything reckless before the trade deadline. A trade for Jimmy Butler is very much off the table, and it would be a surprise if they gave up any further draft capital considering they currently sit outside the play-in spots.
It seems incredibly unlikely that Mike Dunleavy swings a trade for Zach LaVine, Cam Johnson, Nikola Vučević, or any other floor or ceiling raisers.
Holding their own first-round pick in a loaded draft, it’s possible the Warriors pivot. They could give Curry time to get fully healthy. Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson, Schröder, and Looney would have value on the trade market.
Despite a short price of -175, the Warriors are a value bet to miss the playoffs, but their other markets are to be avoided. The +950 to win the Pacific Division is far too short, and the +2200 on a Finals appearance wouldn’t be appealing to even the most diehard Warriors fans.
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