No women’s basketball league is as deep as the Big Ten. Every game in this tournament matters because 12 teams have a realistic shot to make the NCAA tournament. The bottom three could play spoiler, especially Nebraska. The Huskers arrive in Indianapolis, which is not exactly a neutral site given that they open against Indiana, having lost six of their past eight games.
But the team most likely to claim the trophy is the one that hasn’t lost a Big Ten game all season. UCLA dominated the league with an 18-0 record and enters the tournament at 28-1 overall. Nobody has an answer for Lauren Betts, and Kiki Rice provides a strong outside option that makes the Bruins extremely difficult to guard.
The rest of the league is likely competing for second place and NCAA seeding opportunities. The conference mostly held to form in last year’s tournament, and this year’s return to Indianapolis could produce a similar outcome.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake and who needs a big week.
Who’s Got the Most to Lose?
Nebraska, without question. The Huskers are likely a First Four team right now, but that almost certainly disappears with a loss to Indiana. Oregon found out the hard way last year that the Hoosiers have plenty of support in Indianapolis. Even with Indiana having a rough year, Hoosier fans will show up. Nebraska’s best chance to avoid a hostile crowd might be for Purdue fans to arrive early for their game and lend some support to the Husker section.
Given that Nebraska won the teams’ meeting by just five points in Lincoln, there’s reason for concern. Indiana has won six of its past eight games, and the two losses came against USC and UCLA. The Hoosiers have shown real improvement, and Shay Ciezki has scored 20 or more points in four of her past five games. The pressure is clearly on Nebraska to at least reach Thursday, where a loss to Ohio State would be far more acceptable.
Speaking of the Buckeyes, they have pressure of their own. Ohio State is right on the line as one of the top 16 teams. If it holds that position, it would host the first two NCAA tournament games in Columbus. To make that happen, the Buckeyes likely need to reach Saturday and face UCLA. Minnesota also sits on the 4 seed line, and there probably isn’t room for both the Buckeyes and the Golden Gophers to host. Whichever team reaches the semifinals will likely host the first two rounds, while the other will be hoping the committee gives it a reprieve.
Maryland and Michigan State also need to avoid a bad loss. If they can reach Friday, they have probably done enough to host.
Who’s Got the Most to Gain?
Iowa is charging hard, but the Hawkeyes might have already done enough to secure a spot on the 2 line. That’s as high as they can realistically go; the top four seeds will likely be Connecticut, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas. But Iowa could still make a strong run to the Big Ten final before running into Mount Bruin on Sunday.
Beyond that, Oregon could improve its situation. The Ducks already beat Maryland in College Park this season, and they have a winnable first game against Purdue. If Oregon can knock off Maryland again, the Ducks would almost certainly move up from the 8/9 line.
Who Could Surprise?
It’s hard to pick a surprise team in a field like this one. The biggest surprise would be if UCLA doesn’t win the league title, but that’s almost certainly not going to happen. Any other outcome wouldn’t really qualify as much of a surprise because of how deep this league is. Any of the top 11 teams could realistically still be playing Saturday, with the exception of Washington and USC, since they would have to go through UCLA.
The pick to surprise, then, would be Oregon for the reasons stated above. As a No. 11 seed, the Ducks making a run to the final would raise some eyebrows, but it’s certainly not impossible.
What’s Most Likely to Happen?
UCLA will likely roll into the title game, where it should find either Iowa or Michigan waiting. The Hawkeyes already routed Michigan in the first meeting, holding Syla Swords to just seven points. With how well they’re playing, it makes sense to pick Iowa to battle the Bruins for the league title.
However, Iowa doesn’t appear to be quite on UCLA’s level. The Bruins should claim the Big Ten title again.
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