The Big 12 might be the most open of the Power Five leagues in women’s basketball. There’s a dominant team in TCU, but the Horned Frogs are far from a sure thing. They enter the tournament in Kansas City with the edge, yet West Virginia, Texas Tech and Baylor all have the ability to knock them off and claim the title.
There’s also the fact that the Big 12 allows every team into its conference tournament, something the ACC and Big Ten do not do. That’s not ideal for teams near the bubble because it increases the risk of taking a damaging loss. Utah and BYU, for example, both face a potentially tricky opener. The Cougars open against Houston, with the winner advancing to play Utah. There’s no real benefit to beating Houston, but a loss would likely doom the NCAA tournament hopes of either BYU or Utah.
With only seven teams feeling comfortable about their NCAA tournament chances, but four others still in the mix, there’s plenty at stake over the course of this week. The top five teams are pushing for the opportunity to host in the NCAA tournament, while the next tier is trying to strengthen its resume and remove any lingering doubt.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake and who needs a big week.
Who’s Got the Most to Lose?
BYU was in a full catch-22 situation over the final weeks of the season. The Cougars enter the tournament having won three straight, including victories over fellow bubble teams Utah and Arizona State. By virtue of beating the Sun Devils, BYU also secured the tiebreaker and the No. 9 seed.
That’s not necessarily a good thing, however, because it leaves BYU with a difficult road to the NCAA tournament. The Cougars first have to take care of Houston, then face rival Utah in a game where the Utes will be rested. If they get through that matchup, the likely reward is TCU. Realistically, BYU probably has to beat the Frogs, or at least push them to the limit, to strengthen its case.
Colorado isn’t in a great position either. The Buffaloes are barely in the projected field and face a no-win scenario in their first game. They’ll either see UCF, which offers little résumé value, or Kansas in front of what will likely be a heavily pro-Jayhawks crowd in Kansas City. In either case, Colorado probably needs to win its opener and then put up a strong showing against Baylor to feel safe.
Who’s Got the Most to Gain?
Iowa State has a good chance to make a run. The Cyclones have the best player on the floor in Audi Crooks, and as long as they win their first game, they’ll be playing with no pressure. Iowa State faces a tough second-round matchup with West Virginia, but it’s a winnable one.
Texas Tech is probably in the best position of anyone in the field. The Red Raiders are sitting around the No. 5 seed line for the NCAA tournament, and they have a chance to add a few quality wins if they get through their first game. They’ve already beaten TCU once, and if they can do it again, they’re likely to earn the right to host in the NCAA tournament.
Who Could Surprise?
Iowa State makes the most sense to pull off a surprise run. With Crooks on the floor, little pressure, and plenty of fan support, the Cyclones could easily reach the semifinals and possibly beyond.
Kansas could scare a few teams from the No. 11 spot. The Jayhawks closed the regular season by winning five of their final seven games, including a victory over Texas Tech. Like Iowa State, Kansas will have strong fan support in Kansas City, which could make a big difference against a team that had to travel a long way, such as UCF or Arizona State. The Jayhawks also have plenty to play for: three wins would likely get them into the NCAA tournament.
What’s Most Likely to Happen?
TCU has the edge, but it’s far from a sure thing. The biggest concern with picking the Frogs is that they’ve already lost to Texas Tech, and the Red Raiders might have the widest variance of any team in the tournament. Texas Tech has that win over TCU, but it also lost to 13th-seeded Kansas State.
So it really could be anyone’s tournament outside of the bottom few teams. West Virginia and TCU played two excellent games during the regular season, and a third meeting would be a treat. The most likely scenario is that Texas Tech runs out of gas in the semifinals, setting up that third matchup and another TCU victory in the conference final.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
