With the 2025 NFL season now complete and free agency and the draft rapidly approaching, I believe now is a good time to pick prime candidates for regression in 2026. It goes without saying, but every playoff field is different from one year to the next, and so this is my best attempt at predicting the teams to fall from grace this upcoming NFL season.
4. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers land on this list largely because of the competition around them rather than any glaring flaw on their own roster. The Chiefs are likely to remain a major threat in the AFC West, and Denver looks poised to stay in the playoff hunt as well. Beyond the division, the AFC remains loaded with contenders such as Buffalo, Baltimore, New England, Houston, and Jacksonville all looking to make a push. With so many teams competing for playoff spots, the Chargers could find themselves on the outside looking in if free agency and the draft don’t break their way.
3. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco should still be competitive next season, but there are legitimate reasons for concern. Several of the team’s core players, including Trent Williams, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, are entering the later stages of their careers. At the same time, key younger stars such as Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are coming off injury-plagued seasons. With questions surrounding both the health and age of its core, along with a handful of roster needs, the 49ers enter next season with more uncertainty than they’ve faced in recent years.
2. Carolina Panthers
This was a relatively easy pick. Carolina finished 8-9 in 2025 and does not project as a serious Super Bowl contender next season. The roster is young, the division remains unpredictable, and the offseason could still reshape the team. Ironically, the Panthers might actually be better in 2026 than they were in 2025. Even so, improvement may not be enough to get them back into the playoff field.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The easiest choice here is Pittsburgh. The AFC North should only get tougher next season, with the Ravens and Bengals continuing to contend behind elite quarterbacks. At the same time, the Steelers could be facing significant changes this offseason, including uncertainty at quarterback and a new head coach in Mike McCarthy.
There are also concerns about age at several key positions. Defensive leaders such as T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Jalen Ramsey are all another year older, and that could begin to show over the course of a long season. When you combine a tougher division, potential organizational changes, and an aging core, Pittsburgh stands out as the most likely 2025 playoff team to miss the postseason in 2026.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
