Mike Vrabel’s first season in New England has been an incredible resurgence of the Patriots from top to bottom. And by besting Denver in the AFC Championship, Vrabel became just the eighth coach in NFL history to take his team to the Super Bowl in his first year in charge.
What really makes this rise incredible is where the Patriots were last season. New England wasn’t expected to be in this spot this quickly. The Patriots were 4-13 last year under Jerod Mayo, and now they’re 16-3 and playing for a title.
That might make Vrabel’s year the strongest debut in NFL history, whether or not the Patriots complete the turnaround by beating the Seahawks. After all, every other coach to achieve this feat took over a team that was at least above .500 the year before.
Vrabel is also hoping to be different from the coaches on this list in another way. Only one of the seven ever got back to the Super Bowl, and very few sustained long-term playoff success after their initial run. Here’s a look at the other coaches to reach the big game in year one.
Don McCafferty, 1970, Baltimore Colts
McCafferty took over from Don Shula, who left for Miami two years after getting the Colts to the Super Bowl. With Baltimore coming off an 8-5-1 year, McCafferty’s calm, relaxed demeanor was exactly what the veteran Colts needed. Baltimore went 11-2-1 and won Super Bowl V, a turnover-filled mess over Dallas.
Two years later, when the veterans aged out of being productive, McCafferty was out of a job, as he refused to bench John Unitas. But for his first two years, things couldn’t have gone much better.
Red Miller, 1977, Denver Broncos
For their first decade-plus, the Broncos were a directionless mess. John Ralston made Denver respectable, then Miller got them over the hump. Denver won a franchise-record 12 games, made the playoffs for the first time, and reached Super Bowl XII against Dallas.
Things didn’t go well there, as Denver couldn’t handle the Cowboys’ defense. Miller never recaptured the magic of that season, as his next two seasons both ended in the opening round of the playoffs, and he was fired after going 8-8 in 1980.
George Seifert, 1989, San Francisco 49ers
With respect to Seifert, almost anyone could have coached the 1989 49ers to a championship. San Francisco’s roster, considered by many to be the greatest in NFL history, steamrolled to a 14-2 record after Bill Walsh retired and handed the reins to Seifert, his defensive coordinator.
The 49ers outscored their playoff foes 126-26 and crushed the Broncos 55-10 to win their second straight Super Bowl and fourth overall. Still, handling expectations and maintaining that standard is its own challenge. Seifert would add another Super Bowl six years later, making him the only coach to reach the Super Bowl in his first year and ever make it back.
Jon Gruden, 2002, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs had gotten close to a title under Tony Dungy, but they couldn’t get past Philadelphia in the playoffs. They chose to fire Dungy and bring in Gruden, paying the Raiders four draft picks and $8 million in cash for the privilege.
Raiders owner Al Davis said he set the price so high that he didn’t think Tampa Bay would pay it. They did. And Davis ended up regretting it, as the Bucs crushed the Raiders 48-21 in the Super Bowl to win their first title.
Gruden never won another playoff game in Tampa Bay, largely hamstrung by the draft capital given up to acquire him. But the trophy said all that was necessary.
Bill Callahan, 2002, Oakland Raiders
The Raiders lost Gruden but still had an excellent roster. It was tailor-made for Callahan to step in and get to the Super Bowl, as he took a team that had made the AFC Championship two years earlier and pushed them to 12-4 and a Super Bowl appearance.
Callahan was in over his head against his predecessor. Tampa Bay knew Oakland’s system inside and out, to the point they were calling out the Raiders’ plays at the line of scrimmage. The Raiders never adjusted and paid for it. A year later, they were 4-12 and Callahan was fired.
Jim Caldwell, 2009, Indianapolis Colts
Like Gruden, Caldwell replaced Tony Dungy. This time, Dungy left on his own terms after winning a Super Bowl three years earlier. Caldwell stepped into a perfect situation, as Indianapolis had won 12 or more games for six straight seasons.
Caldwell promptly made that seven, winning his first 14 games before punting on an undefeated season to minimize distractions. The gamble didn’t work. New Orleans took control in the second half of the Super Bowl and beat the Colts 31-17.
Two years later, Peyton Manning suffered a neck injury, the Colts went 2-14, and Caldwell was fired.
Gary Kubiak, 2015, Denver Broncos
Kubiak stepped into a strange but workable situation. Peyton Manning was clearly at the end of his career but wanted one final shot at a ring. By the end of the season, Manning was barely functional, but Denver’s defense carried the team.
The Broncos beat Carolina 24-10, surviving a postseason in which they never scored more than 24 points in a game. Manning retired, Brock Osweiler left, and Kubiak spent the next season squeezing nine wins out of Trevor Siemian before retiring himself for health reasons.
The Pattern Vrabel Is Trying to Break
History suggests Vrabel is already fighting long odds. Getting to the Super Bowl in year one is rare enough. Building anything lasting from it is even rarer.
If New England finishes the job, Vrabel will not just be joining a short list. He will be trying to become the second coach ever to prove that a first-year Super Bowl run is more than a fluke.
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