Getting in early can be one of the best ways to find value in World Cup markets. Yes, it comes with potential variability and risk, such as injuries and fatigue that can cause shifts before the ball is ever kicked. But if you like a number in early May, there’s a good chance it won’t be there by the time June rolls around so you may want to jump on a few now.
Here’s a look at some of our favorite World Cup longshots.
Germany to Win the World Cup (+1400 at DraftKings)
How often do you see Germany at +1400 to win a World Cup?
Yes, it shapes up to be a tough road, including a potential Round of 16 matchup with France. And yes, Die Mannschaft have disappointed recently, failing to advance past the group stage in each of the last two tournaments.
This isn’t an all-time German squad, but it’s far from lacking. There’s a strong core of experience in Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Serge Gnabry, and Antonio Rüdiger, paired with rising stars like Florian Wirtz, Lennart Karl and Jamal Musiala.
At under a 7% implied probability, the number feels too low for a group with this level of talent and history.
Belgium to Reach the Final (+1400 at Bet365)
Win Group G and Belgium will likely draw a third-place team, followed by a Round of 16 matchup against a weaker Group D winner or another third-place side.
Spain looms as the most likely quarter-final opponent. Belgium would be underdogs, but it’s a spot where the bracket could break favorably if the Spaniards stumble.
That early runway to build momentum matters. Much of the value here comes from sportsbooks over-adjusting to the aging decline of the Golden Generation, but there’s still enough here for a deep run.
Japan to Reach Semi Finals (+1200 at Caesars)
Japan gets a manageable group. There are no easy games, but it’s not out of the question they come through against the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia.
The path could open up from there, with a favorable route to the quarter-finals and no group winners likely until that stage. They’ve already shown they can compete at this level, beating Spain and Germany at the last World Cup.
With pace in attack and the ability to absorb pressure, they’re a dangerous knockout opponent if they get rolling.
Norway to Reach Semi Finals (+550 at DraftKings)
Norway will be a popular dark horse this summer, with much of the focus on Erling Haaland’s first World Cup and what his firepower can bring.
But this isn’t a one-man team. It’s a well-rounded squad that beat Italy twice in qualifying, including 4-1 in Milan.
Even a runner-up finish in Group I could set up a decent path through the first two knockout rounds, leaving them just one win from a surprising semi-final appearance.
Senegal to Reach Quarter Finals (+700 at Caesars)
Drawn in the same group as Norway, much of the case for Senegal follows similar reasoning. They were runners-up at the Africa Cup of Nations and still have an experienced core, led by Idrissa Gueye and Sadio Mané.
Some additional contributors are also emerging, including Habib Diarra, Ibrahim Mbaye, and Lamine Camara. This is a well-balanced team capable of finishing in the top two in Group I.
As mentioned with Norway, a runner-up finish would likely set up two winnable knockout matches, putting a quarter-final run firmly in play.
Michael Olise to Win Golden Boot (+4000 at BetRivers)
Michael Olise has been sensational this season, scoring 13 goals in the Bundesliga and adding five more in the Champions League.
France is loaded in attack, which is why Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé dominate this market. That only creates value further down the board.
With France expected to make a deep run, the opportunity for goals will be there. Olise’s underlying numbers stack up even against traditional strikers, and at this price, he’s a compelling longshot in a loaded forward line.
Florian Wirtz to Win Golden Boot (+5000 at BetMGM)
Germany doesn’t have a clear, elite No. 9. Kai Havertz will likely start if fit, otherwise it’s Nick Woltemade or Deniz Undav, meaning the scoring burden is spread across the front line.
That creates opportunity. Wirtz has 10 goals in 39 appearances, and Havertz’s ability to link play should open space in advanced areas.
The 22-year-old playmaker can also operate as a false nine, with wingers stretching the pitch around him. If you’re bullish on Germany, Wirtz offers exceptional value at this price.
Turkey/USA in Group D (+400 at Bet365)
This is Türkiye’s first World Cup since 2002, but they shouldn’t be overlooked. It’s a strong squad, led by emerging playmakers Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız.
On paper, they stack up well against the rest of the group, while the United States should benefit from home advantage and safely reach the top two. That sets up a likely showdown on matchday three at SoFi Stadium, which could decide the D winner.
At this price, backing either side to top the group should pay off.
Japan/Netherlands in Group F (+500 at Bet365)
Remember what Japan did in Qatar. They’ve beaten Brazil and England in recent months, showing the same tactical flexibility that led to wins over Spain and Germany at the last World Cup.
The Netherlands are talented, but not without flaws. They struggled to beat Poland in qualifying, and the attack doesn’t quite match the strength of their back line. That could open the door for a group-stage slip.
If Japan carry over that form, this group is far more open than the odds suggest.
Morocco/Brazil in Group C (+900 at Bet365)
Morocco reached the semi-finals on the back of a rock-solid defense four years ago. Since then, their defense conceded just one goal as they won the Africa Cup of Nations, and Brahim Diaz has switched allegiance to add a creative spark.
Brazil, meanwhile, are below their usual standard. There’s plenty of young talent in attack, but the midfield still leans on post-peak versions of Casemiro and Fabinho. Brazil is flawed and far from a lock to take maximum points in Group C.
That opens the door for a surprise winner at a big price.
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