There’s almost always one or two surprise teams in the Sweet 16 in March. With the right draw, a mid-major can win a game or two, bust some brackets, and put its stamp on the NCAA Tournament.
These teams have the right combination of talent, coaching, experience, and specific traits that can make life miserable for a power-conference opponent. If you see them on your bracket in March, you might want to think twice before picking against them.
Belmont Bruins
Nobody wants to see Belmont as a first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins lead the nation in three-point efficiency and excel at making shots from anywhere on the court.
They’re also not the type of team that fouls often. Belmont plays solid defense without sending teams to the line, and in Tyler Lundblade, the Bruins have a genuine star with Power Five experience.
The one concern is free-throw shooting. Belmont isn’t built to close games out comfortably if they get a lead. But for mid-majors, getting a lead often doesn’t happen until the end anyway. If Belmont gets a chance for a big shot, it’s likely to connect.
Liberty Flames
One reason former Virginia coach Tony Bennett had so much success was his ability to slow games down. Power-conference teams don’t want to play that way, and their frustration often showed.
Liberty plays a very similar style. Ritchie McKay spent six years as Bennett’s top assistant in Charlottesville and brought that philosophy with him. Liberty drags the tempo to a crawl, which gets into the heads of the team that has to face it. Like Belmont, Liberty has good shooters. Brett Decker is a strong perimeter threat, and Zach Cleveland can score inside. That combination can be a nightmare for an unsuspecting five- or six-seed.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Gonzaga’s partner in the West Coast Conference is back, and once again, power-conference coaches will be hoping the Bulldogs can keep the Gaels out of the tournament. Saint Mary’s is almost at the point where it doesn’t really qualify as a mid-major because it’s simply too good.
The Gaels have been a five- or seven-seed in five of their past six tournament appearances and have won a game four times. This year they’re hovering around the No. 10 line, but they might be their most dangerous version yet for a high seed. Saint Mary’s is elite at the free-throw line and highly efficient from three. If the Gaels get a lead, they’re not giving it back. And unlike many mid-majors, they’re comfortable facing power-conference teams and closing games out.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
It’s time to take seriously the possibility that Miami might go undefeated. The RedHawks haven’t played a Power Five team all year, which helps explain their record. But 18-0 is still 18-0, and Miami is favored in every remaining game on its schedule. If they reach 34-0 after winning the MAC Tournament, where they land in the bracket will be fascinating.
Every RedHawk starter shoots over 50% from the field, and only Antwone Woolfolk is below 78% from the free-throw line. Miami hasn’t faced much adversity this season, but this team can shoot its way out of almost any difficult spot.
Saint Louis Billikens
The Billikens are posting impressive numbers on the way to a 16-1 mark. They excel at limiting second-chance points, defending the field, and protecting the paint.
All of that plays in March. Saint Louis is likely to land on the right side of the first-round seed line, which means it could be a dangerous matchup for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Against offense-heavy teams, the Billikens have the edge.
Utah State Aggies
This isn’t a typical home-court-dependent team. Utah State has an incredible advantage at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, but this group can also win away from Logan.
Like the other teams on this list, the Aggies can shoot and defend. They also excel at second-chance points. If they draw a skilled team that doesn’t rebound well, Utah State has the physicality and discipline to shove its way to an upset.
