College basketball’s nature lends itself to several narratives in January that aren’t necessarily true.
Once upon a time, when leagues played a double round-robin, January told a lot about how each conference race might look in March. Now, all it tells you is who’s played a tougher schedule and who’s gotten a little unlucky with their draw.
The Big Ten and ACC both operate with 18 teams. The Big Ten only has three double matchups, and the ACC has two. The SEC and Big 12 both have 16 teams, with only two double matchups possible. And while fans look at records and hot streaks, the reality is that who you play and when determines a lot of a team’s success.
These teams don’t necessarily have the best records, but they’ve got the right situation to change their narratives by making a nice run. It’s a good idea to get some action in on them now before the rest of the world catches on to what they’re doing.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes have one bad loss on the profile, at Minnesota by three points. Even that wasn’t that bad of a loss, as the Golden Gophers are notoriously tough at home. Iowa’s other losses are to Iowa State, Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State. The lowest ranked team in that group is Purdue, at No. 12 nationally.
The Hawkeyes make over half of their shots and defend the 3-point shot very well. They’re about to face a five-game stretch of USC, Oregon, Washington, Northwestern and Maryland. None of those teams are in the upper tier of the Big Ten, and the Hawkeyes should be riding a seven-game win streak when Purdue rolls into Iowa City on Valentine’s Day. If the Hawkeyes play the way they have all year, they’ll be consistent moneyline winners for the next two weeks.
Texas
The Longhorns have to survive a trip to Auburn first, but the schedule really opens up after that. Texas’ next five after the Tigers include Oklahoma, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU. There are no easy games in the SEC with none of the 16 teams ranked outside the top 100 (and Texas already lost to Mississippi State, rated the league’s weakest), but this is as forgiving a stretch as an SEC team could hope for.
Texas can score with anyone, but its big problem is that it doesn’t defend the 3-pointer very well. That makes the Missouri game dangerous, but it’s still a winnable game. It doesn’t hurt that Texas needs to stack wins if it’s going to make the NCAA tournament. The Longhorns will be playing desperate basketball, which usually makes teams into winners.
Saint Louis
If you don’t know what the Billikens are doing, you need to familiarize yourself with them. Saint Louis has slammed everyone who has come to the Chaifetz Arena this year, winning every home game it’s played by double digits. Of the Billikens’ next six games, three are home games and three are on the road against teams outside the top 140.
Saint Louis shouldn’t have to break a sweat until February 24, when it travels to Dayton. When betting on a team that’s head and shoulders above its competition, complacency can be a worry, but that shouldn’t be a factor here. Saint Louis only gets one meeting with the Atlantic 10’s second-best team, George Mason, and it comes in Fairfax on the last day of the season. The Billikens will both be trying to put space between themselves and the Patriots and trying to impress the committee. The last thing Saint Louis wants is to go into March needing the automatic bid, which is great news for bettors.
Virginia
The Cavaliers just got picked off at home by North Carolina, ending a five-game winning streak. That’s perfect, because now Virginia is motivated to make up the ground it lost. And the Cavaliers will take that motivation into a stretch against the absolute bottom of the ACC.
Over their next six league games (there’s also a non-conference neutral site game with Ohio State), the Cavaliers will see Notre Dame, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Florida State and Georgia Tech. Those teams are a combined 11-31 in the ACC, and none are anywhere close to making the NCAA tournament. Virginia should take out its frustrations in a big way.
Louisville
Duke just routed Louisville in Cameron, but the Cardinals aren’t going to play that poorly against their next few opponents. I expect Louisville to have a nice bounce-back against SMU, and there’s a soft set of opponents to follow.
The Cardinals should be favored in their next seven games, with only NC State and the return game with SMU offering much resistance. Until Louisville goes back to Tobacco Road to play North Carolina, the Cardinals should be able to impose their will on the teams in front of them.
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