Every season, there are teams that aren’t on anyone’s radar and suddenly put together a special year. Whether it’s a new coach, smart moves in the transfer portal, or the arrival of a star freshman, one or two changes can completely reshape a program’s trajectory.
These schools weren’t expected to do much of anything back in November. But as we get close to Selection Sunday, it’s clear they are on their way to high seeds and potentially deep runs in the NCAA tournament.
Here are the biggest surprises in men’s college basketball this season.
Nebraska
It appeared Nebraska’s 2023-24 season might have been a flash in the pan. The Huskers quickly regressed from finishing third in the Big Ten to tying for 12th and failing to qualify for the conference tournament in 2024-25. At that point, Fred Hoiberg was clearly coaching for his future in Lincoln.
It is safe to say that future looks pretty secure now.
Nebraska finally lost its first game of the season in a three-point classic at Michigan, but still sits at No. 5 in the rankings, the best mark in school history. The Huskers have proven themselves repeatedly in a brutal Big Ten and are now firmly in the conversation for a No. 1 seed.
Hoiberg needed to make a run to stick around. Nobody saw this coming. The Huskers have a chance to make this their best season in school history by a mile.
Virginia
The Cavaliers looked lost last season after the departure of Tony Bennett, and there were real questions about how long it would take Ryan Odom to stabilize the program. It turns out Odom was exactly what Virginia needed to transition from the Bennett era into the NIL era.
The truth is Virginia was already a flawed team in Bennett’s final seasons, often carried to strong seeds by his sheer ability as a coach. Odom’s approach is better suited for the modern college game, and the metrics reflect that. The Cavaliers sit 16th at KenPom, after failing to crack the top 20 in any of Bennett’s final three years.
In 2023, Virginia earned a 4 seed when the numbers suggested they were closer to a 9. Those days are likely over. This version of Virginia has the talent to actually match the seed they are going to receive.
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt went through a brief lull after starting the season 16-0, but the Commodores appear to be back on track after shredding Kentucky. Under Mark Byington, who arrived from James Madison, Vanderbilt took a step forward last season and entered this year projected as a fringe tournament team.
They have blown past those expectations. Vanderbilt would now likely receive a 4 or 5 seed if the tournament started today, and most of their remaining games are simply opportunities to build their resume.
Seven of their final ten games come against Quad 1 opponents, with Ole Miss and Oklahoma the only Quad 2 teams left on the schedule. Even a 4-6 finish against that slate should be more than enough to avoid any Selection Sunday drama.
Clemson
At some point, the experts need to accept that Brad Brownell can really coach. Every year, Clemson enters with low or middling expectations, and every year the Tigers find a way to exceed them.
Brownell is on track to win 20 games for the fourth straight season, and Clemson is positioned to make its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. That has only happened twice before in program history, and in both cases the coach left after year three.
Brownell now seems like a fixture at Clemson. In his 16th season, he has built a program that quietly wins, consistently competes, and continues to outperform its preseason projections.
Texas A&M
Bucky McMillan inherited a roster that had been gutted by Buzz Williams leaving for Maryland. After rebuilding almost from scratch, Texas A&M was picked to finish 13th in the SEC. As January winds down, the Aggies find themselves alone in first place.
Even more impressive is how quickly it came together. Texas A&M looked disjointed early, with losses to Oklahoma State and Central Florida, but McMillan’s system apparently just needed time to settle. Since then, the Aggies have won 14 of their last 16 games and sit comfortably in the field.
What makes it truly remarkable is that McMillan had only one returning player when he arrived. He rebuilt the entire roster in one offseason and somehow produced a cohesive, disciplined team that has made the SEC even more competitive.
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