Opening Scene: From Bay Hill to Sawgrass
The Florida swing just served up a Bay Hill thriller that still has the Golf Channel pre-PLAYERS coverage buzzing.
Sunday’s finish turned into a two-man showdown despite Daniel Berger (-15) firing a blistering 63 in Round 1 and holding a convincing lead throughout much of the weekend. But it was Akshay Bhatia who chased him down. Using a scorching putter, four birdies on the back nine, and a fortunate eagle on the par-5 16th, Bhatia forced a playoff that he won on the first hole. The victory sent him home with $4 million and 700 FedExCup points.
Now the Tour heads north to Ponte Vedra Beach for The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass’ Stadium Course. The event remains one of the Tour’s flagship stops, featuring a premier field, a famously intimidating finishing stretch, and the largest purse on the PGA Tour calendar at $25 million along with 750 FedExCup points.
Conversation around the tournament was already elevated Monday after Rory McIlroy, the defending 2025 champion, withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational with back spasms, delaying his arrival at Sawgrass until Wednesday.
Debate also resurfaced about whether The PLAYERS should be considered golf’s “fifth major,” or even replace one of the traditional four. Players interviewed after leaving Bay Hill offered a consistent response: major or not, this tournament has always carried significant weight on the schedule.
This year’s field includes 123 players, expanded to accommodate Brooks Koepka under the Tour’s Returning Member Program. Seven past champions will be in the field. McIlroy, a two-time PLAYERS champion, and Scottie Scheffler, who won in 2023 and 2024, are the only players in the 2026 field who could match Jack Nicklaus’ record of three PLAYERS titles with a win this week.
The Course: What It Demands and What It Punishes
TPC Sawgrass’ Stadium Course is a par-72 layout measuring 7,352 yards, and it demands both discipline and patience.
Water or sand comes into play on every hole, which means the margin for error is slim. Players need to find fairways off the tee and then control trajectory with their irons. Approach shots require commitment rather than tentative swings, and angles into greens are constantly part of the conversation between player and caddie.
The finishing stretch is a major reason the event carries such prestige. The iconic island-green 17th hole has decided countless tournaments, and last year’s Monday playoff famously turned when a tee shot found the water.
Sawgrass tends to expose hesitation quickly. If a player is caught between clubs or unsure of a line, the course has a way of revealing it immediately. And more often than not, the cameras are waiting.
Who Fits Here: The Players Built for Sawgrass
Everyone in the field is capable of handling the challenge the Stadium Course presents. The question is who arrives with the mindset to ignore the hazards and play as if nothing but green grass lies ahead.
Driving accuracy is a key trait at Sawgrass, which places players like Si Woo Kim, Russell Henley, and Collin Morikawa high on the list of golfers to watch.
McIlroy brings the course history, though his back issue will be monitored closely. Scheffler, meanwhile, has been dominant here recently and could match Nicklaus’ record with a win.
The course also rewards well-rounded players who can gain strokes in multiple areas rather than relying on one hot club. The PGA Tour’s scrambling statistics are often a useful guide when evaluating potential contenders.
That metric brings players like Hideki Matsuyama, Kurt Kitayama, and Henley back into consideration.
Betting Boards: Odds and Angles
*All Odds from March 10th
At DraftKings, Scottie Scheffler opens as the outright favorite at +425, followed by Rory McIlroy at +1400. The PGA Tour site lists McIlroy slightly longer at +1600.
Collin Morikawa (+2050), Si Woo Kim (+2400), Tommy Fleetwood (+2500), and Russell Henley (+2600) round out the next group of contenders.
FanDuel lists Scheffler at +480, with McIlroy and Morikawa both at +1600. Si Woo Kim and Ludvig Åberg sit at +2200, while Henley is at +2500.
For Top-10 markets:
DraftKings lists Scheffler at -192, McIlroy +148, Morikawa +190, Si Woo Kim +210, and Fleetwood +215.
FanDuel lists Scheffler at -190, Morikawa +145, McIlroy +150, Si Woo Kim +185, and Henley +200.
One-and-Done Strategy
For those playing One-and-Done formats, this is a prime week to spend a big name. The winner’s share of the purse is roughly $4.5 million, making it one of the most valuable events of the season.
If Scottie Scheffler is still available on your card, this is exactly the type of week he is built for. The strongest field, the biggest purse, and a course that rewards discipline and confidence.
Potential surprise winners or top-10 candidates include Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, and Collin Morikawa. Xander Schauffele also fits the profile of a player capable of winning a flagship event without necessarily being the shortest number on the board.
Rory McIlroy will not be on my card this week. For now, the hope is simply that he makes it through the weekend healthy.
What I’ll Be Watching
First, I’ll be watching McIlroy’s body language and comfort level swinging the club early on Thursday. As of Monday night, he described his back as “stubborn.”
Second, I’ll be watching how Scheffler starts. When he establishes control early at Sawgrass, he tends to avoid the big mistake that can derail a round.
I’m also curious to see what Brooks Koepka does with the invitation that expanded the field. His presence adds an interesting storyline.
Finally, I’ll be watching who survives the closing stretch with discipline during the first two rounds. Holes 16, 17, and 18 have a way of reshaping the leaderboard every year.
The Takeaway
Last week’s PGA Tour theme was clear: mindset, discipline, and stamina define the winner.
The PLAYERS demands those same qualities, only with higher stakes and a deeper field. Every elite player in the world is competing for the biggest purse on Tour, and they approach it accordingly.
Whether it is officially labeled a major or not, everyone arrives at Sawgrass as if it were.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
