The college football season is near its end, and over the past couple of weeks, it’s become clear it’s ending with plenty of surprises. After some shocking results in the Quarterfinals, the trend continued in the Semi’s. Unfortunately for the Campus Card, those surprises hit us pretty hard this week.
We went 3-5 overall, with the Miami-Ole Miss game doing significant damage to our card. While we hit on Indiana moneyline plays, including Indiana-Oregon, we went 0-3 in the Ole Miss game, missing the spread by a half point and the total by two. Miami has played above expectations throughout the playoffs, and their offensive performance in the Semifinals was miles better than anticipated.
In the final week of the season, we’re playing the moneyline and the spread in opposite directions, while expecting plenty of passing to push the total over. From a gut standpoint, we’ve got the Heisman winner doing Heisman winner things, while the incumbent on the other side is piling up yards in the fight of his life. Let’s take a look at how the Championship sets up and how we’re betting it.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Miami Hurricanes
Moneyline: Indiana (-330)
Spread: Miami (+8.5)
O/U: Over 47.5
The Championship is here, and it’s still hard to fully grasp how we got to this matchup. Indiana wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a playoff team when the season started, let alone an undefeated championship contender. Meanwhile, Miami was widely viewed as a throwaway playoff team, to the point where their selection was so controversial the Fighting Irish reportedly backed out of their bowl game in protest.
Now, both teams are one win away from landing in the history books.
Looking at the lines, you’d expect history to be unkind to Miami. A -330 Indiana moneyline and an 8.5-point spread favoring the Hoosiers isn’t exactly flattering, but the Hurricanes have spent the entire postseason battling naysayers, including us.
The way we’re projecting it here at Campus Card: 31–24 Indiana.
Miami’s defense does enough to keep things competitive, but Fernando Mendoza carries the Hoosiers’ offense to a National Championship. If you’re leaning toward the Indiana -8.5 spread, it’s understandable. Indiana has been a juggernaut all year, and after the beating Oregon took last week, this team looks borderline untouchable.
Still, Miami has pulled off some impressive upsets by getting more than expected from their offense. Ultimately, the spread is a tough call, but Indiana should win this game with both teams aggressively airing it out.
Gut Check Bets
Fernando Mendoza Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-162)
AND
Carson Beck Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Mendoza has thrown eight passing touchdowns over his last two games, and the lights have never been too bright for him at Indiana. The offense runs through him at all times. While -162 isn’t going to make you rich on its own, it profiles as a strong play and should be part of any parlay you’re building.
The Carson Beck yardage prop is the far riskier side of this bet, but there’s a real case for it. After what Indiana did to Oregon, the expectation has to be that the Hoosiers come out scoring early and often. Miami’s defense has been outstanding this season, but this is the best offense in college football, led by a Heisman quarterback and a white-hot head coach.
If Miami is going to hang around, they won’t be able to rely on Mark Fletcher Jr. running the ball 25 times and bleeding the clock. They’ll likely be playing catch-up. And if that’s the case, Beck will be throwing often. It may not be pretty, but the volume should be there.
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