Only 33 miles separate UMBC and Howard, yet the two programs have met just three times. Meeting No. 4 comes in Dayton, with the winner earning the daunting task of facing Michigan in the first round.
Neither team is likely to scare the Wolverines, but neither is a pushover. UMBC gave Georgetown and Dayton problems, losing by nine and six points, while Howard pushed Yale to overtime before falling.
Both teams lean on defense, though they get there in different ways.
Here’s a look at the matchup.
When UMBC Has the Ball
One reason this game projects to be low scoring is that UMBC’s offensive strengths line up directly with what Howard does well defensively. The Bison excel at taking away the mid-range jumper, which is exactly where the Retrievers are most dangerous.
However, Howard has an issue with fouling. The Bison send teams to the line at an above-average rate, and that could be a problem here. UMBC has the personnel to take advantage, especially with Jah’Likai King and D.J. Armstrong, and should look to be more aggressive getting to the stripe.
Armstrong in particular could decide this game. He shoots 92.8% from the line, which would rank among the best in the nation if he had enough attempts to qualify. He is coming off a 33-point performance against Vermont in the America East title game, including an 8-for-9 mark from the free throw line. If Howard continues to foul, Armstrong has the ability to take over late.
UMBC will also look to slow the pace, which plays into this staying low scoring. The Retrievers are a defense-first team and will not want to run with Howard, which prefers a faster tempo and is more willing to trade offense for defense.
When Howard Has the Ball
Howard is going to try to push the tempo. The Bison have not been held under 70 points since January 10 against Maryland Eastern Shore, and they typically find their way into the 80s. Something has to give against a UMBC defense that has not allowed an opponent to reach 70 in its past 14 games.
Unlike Howard, UMBC does not foul often. That would not help the Bison much anyway, as they are only an average free throw shooting team. Howard does have capable shooters in Cedric Taylor and Bryce Harris, but its strength is on the glass, where it creates second-chance opportunities.
That could be key in this matchup, as UMBC is not particularly strong rebounding the ball. The Retrievers finished second in the America East in rebounding and first in defensive rebounding, but that is not a conference known for its physicality on the boards. Howard has done a better job extending possessions and generating putbacks.
UMBC also is not a team that forces many turnovers. Instead, its defensive strength lies in shot selection control. Opponents usually get a look, but rarely the one they want. If the Retrievers can continue forcing inefficient shots, they will be comfortable with how this game is played.
X-Factor
The number of possessions will be crucial. UMBC wants to slow the game down and force Howard to operate in the half court, while the Bison would prefer to push the tempo and create more opportunities, especially if shots are not falling early.
UMBC will likely control the tempo at the start and make Howard play its style. If the Bison can build a lead, they can speed things up and dictate the game. If not, they will be stuck playing at UMBC’s pace, which favors the Retrievers.
Best Bets
The best bet on the board is Under 139.5 at -108 on DraftKings. The expectation is that UMBC will be able to control the tempo, and neither team shoots well enough to consistently push this game into the 70s. UMBC has held 14 straight opponents to 69 points or fewer, and 12 of those teams did not reach 62.
With this game likely to stay close, every possession will matter. UMBC is sitting at -1.5 at even money on BetMGM, and with Armstrong at the line, the Retrievers are the right side to close it out.
Expect a lower-scoring game with UMBC winning by two to three possessions.
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