With the first round tipping off, it’s time to lock in the best plays against the spread. You’ve got underdogs trying to shock the Blue Bloods and programs chasing history with their first March Madness win. This is what the tournament is all about. So let’s get into it, make the picks, fire the bets, and sit back for wall-to-wall college basketball.
No. 9 TCU (+2.5) vs. No. 8 Ohio State
When it comes to the opening round, some of the best betting value is always in the 8/9 matchups. Of that group, TCU vs. Ohio State stands out the most, with TCU coming in as a 2.5-point underdog.
I think TCU is the better team in this matchup.
They’re coming off a tough five-point loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament, but closed the regular season by winning nine of their final 10 games. That stretch included quality wins over top-10 teams like Iowa State and Texas Tech, showing what this group is capable of at its best.
The difference in this game comes down to TCU’s frontcourt. David Punch and Xavier Edmonds both average at least 12 points and over six rebounds per game, and Punch adds two blocks per night to anchor a strong defensive presence.
Ohio State has proven it can compete, but TCU has the more complete profile on both ends. Getting points with the better team is exactly the kind of spot you look for in the first round.
Pick: TCU +2.5
No. 13 Troy (+12.5) vs. No. 4 Nebraska
This is a matchup of two programs still searching for their first March Madness win. Nebraska enters at 0-8 all-time in the tournament, while Troy sits at 0-3.
Troy dominated the Sun Belt and was favored in most of its games this season, but this is a team that has also proven it can thrive as an underdog. The Trojans went 6-2 ATS in that role, including a strong non-conference showing with wins over UAB and USC, and a 3-0 ATS mark in those spots.
Nebraska is one of the best defensive teams in the country, but Troy’s offense has the ability to challenge that. The Trojans topped 100 points six times this season and lean heavily on a physical, productive frontcourt, with three players 6’7 or taller averaging at least 12 points per game. Thomas Dowd leads the way, averaging a double-double with 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds.
Nebraska likely advances, but Troy has enough scoring and size to keep this game within the number.
Pick: Troy +12.5
No. 11 South Florida (+4.5) vs. No. 6 Louisville
A No. 11 seed has beaten a No. 6 seed in every NCAA Tournament since 2005, and this year South Florida looks like the team to continue that trend.
Prior to Wednesday, this may not have been the play, but Louisville took a major hit with star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. ruled out with a lower back injury. That shifts the entire matchup.
South Florida brings a fast-paced, high-powered offense that ranks top-10 nationally in points per game, total rebounds, and offensive rebounding rate. Izaiyah Nelson leads the way as a force in the paint, averaging 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game.
Louisville, meanwhile, has struggled defensively, allowing 72.2 points per game, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally. That’s a tough combination against a team that thrives on tempo and second-chance opportunities.
Everything lines up for South Florida to not only cover, but seriously threaten to win outright.
Pick: South Florida +4.5
No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (-10.5)
High Point comes in riding a 14-game winning streak, but this is where it likely ends. The Panthers are a popular upset pick, but the data tells a very different story. They haven’t faced a KenPom top-150 team all season and rank 341st in strength of schedule.
That’s a massive jump in competition against a Wisconsin team that looks built for March.
The Badgers take care of the ball as well as anyone in the country, ranking eighth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio, and they’ve been playing their best basketball late in the season. Wins over Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State highlight that stretch, and they nearly knocked off Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament, losing by just three on a last-second shot.
High Point’s run has been impressive, but this is a completely different level. Wisconsin’s discipline, experience, and efficiency should control this game from start to finish.
Ignore the trendy upset pick and back the team that looks capable of making a real tournament run.
Pick: Wisconsin -10.5
No. 16 Siena (+28.5) vs. No. 1 Duke
Laying nearly 30 points in a tournament game is always risky, especially with a No. 1 seed that just needs to advance.
Duke should control this game, but they’ll be without starting center Patrick Ngongba, which impacts their interior depth and overall rotation. More importantly, there’s no incentive for Duke to push the pace or run up the score with tougher matchups ahead.
Siena also helps this case with its style of play. The Saints rank 319th nationally in adjusted tempo, meaning they slow the game down and limit possessions, which is exactly what you want when taking a big number.
Duke likely wins comfortably, but the pace and game script point toward this staying under the number.
Pick: Siena +28.5
No. 12 McNeese State vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5)
Another trendy upset pick, especially after McNeese State’s run last year, but this feels like a spot where the public is overreacting.
Vanderbilt brings one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking 12th nationally at 86.4 points per game. That’s a tough matchup for a McNeese team that has real issues on the glass, ranking 339th in defensive rebound rate.
That weakness becomes even more concerning against a high-powered offense that can generate second-chance opportunities and keep the pressure on.
McNeese also struggled when stepping up in competition. In its two games against NCAA Tournament-caliber teams, it lost both by double digits, including a 112-71 loss to Michigan.
There’s a clear gap in talent and competition level here. Vanderbilt’s offense should be too much over the course of 40 minutes.
Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5
No. 14 North Dakota State (+16.5) vs. No. 3 Michigan State
There’s no doubt Michigan State should win this game, but covering a number this large is a different story.
North Dakota State’s biggest weakness is size, with its tallest starter at 6’9”, which could be a problem against Michigan State’s athleticism, especially with someone like Coen Carr around the rim.
But where the Bison make up for it is on the perimeter and on the glass. They rank top-50 nationally in three-point shooting and rebounding, giving them a path to stay within striking distance.
Michigan State’s losses this season have often come when opponents get hot from beyond the arc, so if North Dakota State finds a rhythm from three, this could get interesting.
Michigan State likely advances, but this has the feel of a game that stays closer than expected.
Pick: North Dakota State +16.5
No. 13 Hawaii vs. No. 5 Arkansas (-15.5)
Arkansas brings exactly what you want in March, an explosive and efficient offense. The Razorbacks average 89.9 points per game and lead the nation with a 10.7% turnover rate, meaning they maximize possessions and rarely beat themselves.
Hawaii is on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Rainbow Warriors turn it over at a 16.5% rate, ranking 318th nationally, and their offense barely cracks the top 100 in scoring. That’s a dangerous combination against a team that thrives on efficiency.
The gap in competition level is just as clear. Arkansas has been tested against top-tier opponents all season, while Hawaii ranks 230th in strength of schedule.
There’s a significant difference in both talent and preparation here. Arkansas should control this game from the start and has the firepower to extend the margin.
Pick: Arkansas -15.5
No. 11 VCU (+2.5) vs. No. 6 North Carolina
With a healthy Caleb Wilson, North Carolina looks like a Final Four-caliber team. Without him, the ceiling drops significantly, and that changes this matchup.
Rebounding is another concern. The Tar Heels rank 91st in opponent rebounding percentage, which is not the profile you want in March, especially against a physical, deep team like VCU.
The Rams bring balance and depth, ranking seventh nationally in bench scoring at 34 points per game. They can wear teams down over 40 minutes and keep fresh bodies on the floor.
The one thing to watch is style. VCU relies heavily on getting to the free-throw line, ranking top-20 nationally in attempts, while North Carolina is one of the most disciplined defensive teams, ranking 14th in personal fouls per defensive possession. That clash could decide the game.
Still, with the injury and the overall profile, VCU has a strong case to not only cover but push for the outright win.
Pick: VCU +2.5
No. 16 Howard (+30.5) vs. No. 1 Michigan
Laying 30-plus points in a tournament setting is always risky, even when one of the best teams in the country is on the other side.
The trends actually support Howard here. They come in at 12-1 against the spread, while Michigan is 0-5 ATS since L.J. Cason went down, which is a major red flag when you’re asking a team to win by this margin.
The concern is obvious, size. Howard doesn’t have it. Their tallest regular rotation player is just 6’7”, and their leading rebounder is 6’4”, which could be a major problem against Michigan’s frontcourt.
That said, they just showed some fight on the glass in the First Four, doubling UMBC in offensive rebounds. That suggests they can at least compete in effort areas even if they’re overmatched physically.
At this number, it’s less about winning and more about surviving, and Howard has enough going for them to hang inside the number.
Pick: Howard +30.5
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 6 BYU (-2.5)
There’s been a recent trend of First Four teams making runs to the Sweet 16, and a lot of people are trying to talk themselves into Texas being that team this year. I’m not buying it.
Texas barely got into the field and had to grind just to get past NC State. Now they run into a completely different level of firepower.
BYU is led by arguably the best player in the country in A.J. Dybantsa, and the Cougars bring an offense that ranks 23rd nationally in points per game. On the other side, Texas has been a liability defensively, ranking 230th in opponent points per game.
That’s a bad combination in March. Elite offense and star power versus a team that struggles to get stops.
If this turns into a high scoring game, BYU has a clear edge, and it’s hard to see Texas keeping up for 40 minutes.
Pick: BYU -2.5
No. 10 Texas A&M (+2.5) vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s
I want to trust Saint Mary’s here, but Texas A&M looks like the more experienced and complete team.
The Aggies’ top three scorers are all seniors with real tournament experience, and that matters in March. On the other side, a large portion of Saint Mary’s production comes from younger players who weren’t in major roles last season.
Saint Mary’s will try to control the pace, they rank 298th in adjusted tempo, but Texas A&M has been battle-tested all year in the SEC, facing high-level scoring and physicality on a nightly basis.
And when Saint Mary’s stepped up in class against an SEC opponent in Vanderbilt, they were blown out by 25. That’s at least a data point worth noting.
This feels like a game where experience and toughness travel, and getting points with that profile is hard to pass up.
Pick: Texas A&M +2.5
No. 14 Penn (+24.5) vs. No. 3 Illinois
The Ivy League always shows up in this tournament. They may not always make deep runs, but they compete, and they rarely get blown out without a fight.
Getting Penn at +24.5 feels like too many points, especially considering they’ve covered in 16 of their last 18 games. That’s a team that consistently plays within the number.
There’s also some scoring upside here. Illinois has its star in Keaton Wagler, but Penn can counter with TJ Power, who just dropped 44 in the Ivy League championship.
The one caveat is Power’s status. He missed practice Wednesday and is currently questionable, which obviously matters. If he’s limited or out, that changes the ceiling for Penn’s offense.
Still, with the number this high, you’re betting on effort and competitiveness more than an outright threat, and Penn fits that profile.
Pick: Penn +24.5
No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 8 Georgia (-2.5)
Saint Louis had a nice run earlier in the season, but that momentum is gone. They’ve hit a wall at the worst possible time, going 0-4 against the spread over their last four games.
They’ve also relied heavily on home-court advantage, and that disappears here. Away from home, Saint Louis is just 4-9-1 ATS, which is not the profile you want heading into a neutral-site tournament game.
Georgia, like several SEC teams, brings a high-powered offense, averaging nearly 90 points per game. That kind of scoring can overwhelm a team that’s already struggling to keep up.
This feels like a spot where current form and offensive firepower matter, and Georgia has the edge in both.
Pick: Georgia -2.5
No. 14 Kennesaw State vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (-20.5)
Unlike some of the other mid-major matchups, this is one where I’m comfortable laying the big number.
Gonzaga may not have the same schedule as power conference teams, but the metrics still back them up. They rank top-10 in KenPom with a +28.2 net rating and have lost just three games all season. This is still one of the most efficient teams in the country.
Kennesaw State, on the other hand, doesn’t stand out in many areas statistically. Their one calling card is getting to the free-throw line, where they rank first nationally in attempts per game.
That’s not enough here. Relying on free throws to keep pace with an elite offense is a tough formula, especially against a disciplined, experienced Gonzaga team.
This feels like a game where talent and efficiency take over, and Gonzaga has the ability to create separation.
Pick: Gonzaga -20.5
No. 15 Idaho vs. No. 2 Houston (-23.5)
It’s never comfortable laying this many points, but this sets up as a strong matchup for Houston.
Idaho relies heavily on its half-court offense and wants to generate looks from three, averaging nearly 28 attempts per game. That plays right into Houston’s strength. The Cougars are built on defense and physicality, and they excel at disrupting rhythm and forcing tough shots.
If Idaho can’t get clean looks from deep, it’s hard to see where consistent offense comes from.
The only concern is variance. Idaho is 12-0 when they hit 12 or more threes, so if they catch fire, they could hang around longer than expected.
But overall, this is a disciplined, elite Houston team that typically handles these types of opponents. Like Gonzaga, they’re a program with unfinished business, and early-round focus usually shows.
Pick: Houston -23.5
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